Webb will be fine

Webb will be okay for the trials and qualify.

Webb will be at "peak" condition during the Games.

As some one pointed out earlier and my understanding of the new qualifying procedures, Webb just really has to beat two people out of Manzano, Lagat, Rankin and Lomong. It does not matter where he finishes as long as he beats one of them and no one else hits the A standard during the trials.

USATF

The top Ranked Order Finishers as defined in D- 1 (maximum of 3) who have achieved the Olympic "A" standard (see exception in item (b) below) by the end of their event at the 2008 U.S. Olympic Team Trials-Track & Field or Men's 50 km Race Walk by July 6, 2008, will be nominated to the 2008 U.S. Olympic Team on July 8, 2008 provided they have met the entry guidelines listed below. (see Attachment B)

A standard is 3:36.60:

Alan Webb unattached / Nike Reston, VA 3:30.54 qualified

Matt Tegenkamp unattached / Nike Madison, WI 3:34.25 qualified

Bernard Lagat unattached / Nike Tucson, AZ 3:34.77 qualified

Leonel Manzano unattached Austin, TX 3:35.29 qualified

Jon Rankin unattached / Nike Chula Vista, CA 3:35.72 qualified

Lopez Lomong unattached Colorado Springs, CO 3:36.36 qualified

Rob Myers unattached / Reebok Rushville, OH 3:36.49 qualified

I doubt Tegenkamp will run the 1500 and Rob Myers does not appear to be close to that shape. In Webb's first race he was was less than a second off of Rankin and 1.5 seconds off of Lomong. Also Webb made up a second on Rankin between the 1500m split and finish. He also made up a half a second on Lomong. There's four weeks between PRE and the 1500m final. Keeping in mind that it is a lot easier to get back into shape than it is to get to a new level, it seems unlikely that Webb will not make up the difference. Manzano has not been tested, but has had a VERY long season. It seems like the reason why people are freaking out is that Webb is not in such good shape that he can make a tactical mistake and still make the team.

Julia- thanks for posting. Its good to hear from someone that actually knows whats going on. Its also really good to hear that he is confident in his ability.

Webb's only downfall is his incredible desire. He gets over eager and over does it. All he really had to do this year is adjust his training so he would peak a month later and maybe run some extra miles to win an olympic medal, but (from the interview I read) he upped his mileage too much and over did it.

3 Rounds

Manzano will tire, lomong will hang around and go lagat on everyone in the final. Webb will qualify, then dominate the final.

I can't believe there are so many people on here predicting manzano ftw. The kid is still a kid, not below 3:40 this year, a pr of 3:35. He's had a long season. He'd basically have to PR to win. Webb is the only one who has displayed the ability to run 3:34 at trials. He came out slow, but why in the world would you bet against him at trials. I'm sure his coach and him just overlooked this meet, the 2nd most important one on their schedule.

Spyders Webb is a dumb f*ck wrote:

Manzano is great and all, but there is not a single reason why he should be favored over Webb. As has been mentioned, he hasn't broken 3:40 this year. Webb, who is held to a completely higher standard than Leo, ran a sub-3:40 equivalent in his first mile race, one which we can all agree sucked for him, and is probably the worst he'll run all season. And since most people are short-sighted and seem to only be basing things on this outdoor season, I still don't see a reason why people are picking Manzano over Webb if you look at it from an objective point of view.

Lagat, Lomong, and Webb will represent USA at the Olympics.

It's not shortsighted to make predictions based on just this year. From your logic, Jim Ryun and Steve Scott should be favorites for the trials. I mean, they've got the PR's, right?

Look, Manzano hasn't broken 3:40 this year because he hasn't tried. He's raced sparsely, knowing that his biggest races aren't till much later on. To my knowledge he has run no time-trial like races, no professional races, sticking only to the meets he 'needs' to run.

And he doesn't have to run anything else, he already has the 'a', and he's demolished the field in every race he's entered this spring. It's really not that absurd.

And haha, YO, you obviously do not know very much about the penn relays championship of america races if you think that i was being ridiculous in saying that it can sometimes be harder to win that anchor leg than to win a national championship. Manzano beat out a whole horde of 1500/5k ncaa elites in the DMR and the 4xmile. Took down Curtis, Quigley, Brown, Bumbalough, making it look pretty easy. Looked even easier at NCAA nats when simple surges easily held off craig miller, garret heath, see, bolas, jager, acosta...all great runners, he walked all over them. Ran 3:41 with a 63 second lap in the middle of it, obviously he is capable of much, much faster.

The way I see it, he was second last year, and he's at least as good this year - I would say he is better this year. Lagat's a year older, Webb is not looking as strong at this time as he was last year, guys like Lomong and Luckesic will be in the mix, but I think Manzano will win.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

And haha, YO, you obviously do not know very much about the penn relays championship of america races if you think that i was being ridiculous in saying that it can sometimes be harder to win that anchor leg than to win a national championship. Manzano beat out a whole horde of 1500/5k ncaa elites in the DMR and the 4xmile. Took down Curtis, Quigley, Brown, Bumbalough, making it look pretty easy. Looked even easier at NCAA nats when simple surges easily held off craig miller, garret heath, see, bolas, jager, acosta...all great runners, he walked all over them. Ran 3:41 with a 63 second lap in the middle of it, obviously he is capable of much, much faster.

All the people you listed in your second list weren't at Penn Relays but were at Nationals and 2 of 4 on your first list were there as well. Please explain to me how winning Penn was tougher than NCAAs?

didn't manzano run 3:41 at boulder for big 12. is there any conversion since that was at altitude.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

It's not shortsighted to make predictions based on just this year. From your logic, Jim Ryun and Steve Scott should be favorites for the trials. I mean, they've got the PR's, right?

Ok that is just dumb because that is not his logic. His logic is that Webb opened with a time faster that Manzano has run all year, granted not good for Webb, but it was his first race. He said you can't just look at this year because Webb has only run one mile/1500m yet this year. You can't base predictions off of one race. You have to calculate how good he was last year to figure out how much he can realistically improve in 4 weeks.

I agree with you about Manzano. He has not been tested and is race sharp. He finished 2nd last year and without Webb in the same form it looks like he COULD win, but this year isn't the same as last year. Lagat doesn't have the stomach problems of last year. He has won every race this season, right? His kick has looked great. I would pick Lagat, Manzano, and Webb to make the team. Lomong is such a talent I'm afriad to bet against him.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

It's not shortsighted to make predictions based on just this year. From your logic, Jim Ryun and Steve Scott should be favorites for the trials. I mean, they've got the PR's, right?

It's always painful when some people pick up the keyboard. You used some stellar reasoning skills to get to that conclusion. I think just a stretch we're talking about recent PR's of everyone in the race. You know, within a relevant window, say a year or two. Since Ryun and Scott aren't in the race, I would say they are not favorites.

Look Manzano's PR is ~3:35. Can he run faster? Maybe, but he hasn't. That is the point. It will take 3:36 to win at trials. That is approaching his PR, since very few people PR at trials, it's unlikely he's the winner. Until he runs sub 3:33 I'd be pressed to say he's the guy to beat. Especially with far more accomplished runners lurking.

The kid will be good, but he's still a kid. Same thing with all the Fernandez love going around.

cah87 wrote:

Webb's only downfall is his incredible desire. He gets over eager and over does it. All he really had to do this year is adjust his training so he would peak a month later and maybe run some extra miles to win an olympic medal, but (from the interview I read) he upped his mileage too much and over did it.

good post. what interview did you read about his mileage? i'd like to take a look.

It's interesting that he only has to beat two of the 4 guys mentioned. I still put the odds against him, but it's definitely not improbable. That might mean the final won't be tactical as well. Someone like Jennings or Wheating could definitely decide they are going to run 3:36 or bust and take it out from the gun.

Gotta say that in comparing their coaching leading up to Trials, Manzano has a huge advantage over Alan. I think Coach Vig will have Leo will be ready for the grind of Trials, even though Alan has much more experience with rounds and international style racing. Alan obviously finds great comfort in Team Webb. I personally hope they both make it and run great closing laps. Julia, take good care of Alan. We need him in China.

From the Article

http://outside.away.com/outside/bodywork/200807/alan-webb-3.html

"I might have pushed too hard," he says, referring to a jacked-up spring training regimen that had him running about 80 miles each week, hard. "Obviously, I'll get all the benefit of that at some point, but in the short term it was a bit too much." He's reduced his training distance and intensity slightly, and insists that he's not worried; he's just staying focused on Beijing. "I'd rather not race now and be able to race in the U.S. Team Trials."

I understand why people are betting agaist him. Any other runner in his state would get the benefit of the doubt. He will be in better shape at trials, but if he's in 3:51-3:52 mile shape he could still get beat by people in 3:52-53 shape by bad tactics. I'm just hoping Webb realizes he probably won't be too sharp and will make a plan with Lagat to trade leads again. If he lets it go too slow he'll have Manzano and Lomong closing in 52 second pace, which may cause problems. People keep citing his 3:51 at drake as his opener, but he ran a 3:57 at Furman on 4/7 three weeks before Drake.

Grad Student wrote:

It's always painful when some people pick up the keyboard. You used some stellar reasoning skills to get to that conclusion. I think just a stretch we're talking about recent PR's of everyone in the race. You know, within a relevant window, say a year or two. Since Ryun and Scott aren't in the race, I would say they are not favorites.

Look Manzano's PR is ~3:35. Can he run faster? Maybe, but he hasn't. That is the point. It will take 3:36 to win at trials. That is approaching his PR, since very few people PR at trials, it's unlikely he's the winner. Until he runs sub 3:33 I'd be pressed to say he's the guy to beat. Especially with far more accomplished runners lurking.

The kid will be good, but he's still a kid. Same thing with all the Fernandez love going around.

Obviously I was joking about Steve Scott and co...

Manzano ran 3:35.29 at USA's last year for 2nd, beating Lagat and almost catching Webb. I think it's pretty clear he was in at least low 3:30's shape if he was able to do that then, because as you say, people don't usually PR at national championships.

Manzano is not like Fernandez, or even Wheating (who himself is a legit threat in either the 8 or 15). Manzano is a seriously good runner who for some reason is underrated on the national scene despite running 3:35 at nats for second last year and totally dominating the college ranks this year. Manzano is really, really good RIGHT NOW. Fernandez will be soon. Not the same to me.

i'm taking great care of him :) he's deserves it. he's a great guy.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

Obviously I was joking about Steve Scott and co...

Manzano ran 3:35.29 at USA's last year for 2nd, beating Lagat and almost catching Webb. I think it's pretty clear he was in at least low 3:30's shape if he was able to do that then, because as you say, people don't usually PR at national championships.

Manzano is not like Fernandez, or even Wheating (who himself is a legit threat in either the 8 or 15). Manzano is a seriously good runner who for some reason is underrated on the national scene despite running 3:35 at nats for second last year and totally dominating the college ranks this year. Manzano is really, really good RIGHT NOW. Fernandez will be soon. Not the same to me.

Being in low 3:30 shape and running low 3:30 are two different things. I could be in the shape of my life, but if I don't run the time then who cares? I think he's a little overhyped. 3:35 was good for a pro, not GREAT. He ran it once, then sorta died out at WC's. He's come back this year and shown he's for real, but still hasn't put down a blazing time. He's getting far too much credit for ripping up the US college scene. The big dogs will eat him for lunch.

I think at trials we're going to see the difference between the choices Webb had to make at michigan. Be the best stud in college, or get ready for the olympics. No doubt Leo will show up, but Webb has always been in another galaxy.

julia rudd wrote:

i'm taking great care of him :) he's deserves it. he's a great guy.

Finally, someone with access to Webb. Julia, could you pass on the idea that Alan could become the greatest triathlete that ever lived. Just like Tiger Woods, Webb has the perfect name from a marketing perspective. Webb! The world's fastest amphibian! Forget about struggling to make Olympic teams, Webb could dominate the world and the common man would know his name just like they know Lance Armstrong. He would be marketing gold I tell you!

Grad Student:

Manzano was pushed from the gun once this year, at Big XII's, where he ran a 3:41.8 AT ALTITUDE. The conversion, according to Let's Run?

3:35.22

And he won that race by over 2 seconds...

People forget that Manzano beat Lagat last year, which is kind of nuts. I see Lagat and Manzano racing up front, but it will be a close call between Lomong, Sherer, Webb, Lukezic, McClary, Rankin, and maybe Myers or someone else. If it can stay a slighlty slow race, Webb may be able to outkick them all just based on raw strength and quick burstive speed. This is going to be a true trials for him.

irun wrote:

People forget that Manzano beat Lagat last year...

A lot seem to be forgetting that Lomong beat Manzano last year as well. Lomong is a pro this year so he hasn't overraced and didn't have to deal with a very full indoor schedule. If he can stay on his feat he will crush Manzano.

julia rudd wrote:

i'm taking great care of him :) he's deserves it. he's a great guy.

I certainly hope so. After he fades at the Trials, it's going to be hard to find love even among the most delusional Webb fans in this place.

Wait, I take that back. He'll always find love and excuses here among those who can't separate fact from fantasy.