I just noticed the thread.
The section course at Willow Hills is extremely hard. There is one pretty good sized hill that is run twice. The rest of the course is made of short steep hills and tight turns. There is absolutely no way to develop any rhythm on that course. The only flat spots are at the start and finish and mid race, as you come back by the start line. I believe that the Willow Hills course is much harder than mt. SAC. SAC has only 3 hills (although they are huge and very hard also) and 2 rollers. This does not mean that I believe that German will run under 15 at regionals. He and his coaches have stated that his goal is just to qualify and move on to Nationals. I don't think that he will give a maximal effort at all, even if Puskedra is on him or leading him.
Jake Matthews set the Willow Hills CR with 16:12 in 2005. That time was run at the section meet also and he was pushed for most of the race. Jake went on place 9th at the Footlocker West Regional that season.
German ran 15:03. 1:09 faster.
A couple of people have said that he is a one trick pony, but I can tell you that German has been running great all year. 2 weeks before that, he ran 14:42 after stopping to tie his shoe about 800 in to our league championship race. He lost about 10 seconds there. I was probably the only one to see that, as I was on the lead bike for that race.
He has been running extremely fast all season. In early sep, he ran a 14:47 on the same course as our league finals in pretty warm weather and he didn't really look pressed. He also dominated at the Stanford Invite.[/quote]
Thanks for the info. Also, were the courses you mentioned 3 mile or 5K courses?
It sounds like he's been burying courses all season. I have to say, I do kind of hope he pushes it a bit tomorrow to see what time he can hit even if he saves a bit towards the end. After watching the video of him and knowing that he has won all season, I wonder if he'll be able to chill in this race and just qualify, or if he'll nail the first guy who tries to press it.