He ran faster than Jakob at pre, Jakob then ran 3:28 at Oslo, then went 3:26 point at Monaco. Obviously he was coming back from injury but the mile was Kerr's first and only 1500/mile of the season and we'd have seen his times drop if he'd raced more leading up to the Olympics. Jakob maybe could beat him in a rabbited race but not by much. Plus Danny Mackey said Kerr could've gone under 3:27 at Monaco
You can't use the logic that "A beats B twice in slower races, therefore A can run the same times as B in faster races."
Albert Korir beat Kiochoge in Boston, and then Kipchoge ran 2:02 at Berlin. Is Korir now a 2:02 marathoner?
I know it's different scenarios and I'm using an extreme comparison, but this is pretty much the logic you're using.
And what a surprise, Kerr's coach says he "could've gone" the same time as his rival. What else was he supposed to say?
The thing, Kerr won't need to run as fast as Jakob can in a DL meet to beat him in the final. All we are saying is that the PB gap has not gone in Jakob's favor despite him being faster this year and that no one is going to pace a fast race for Jakob to win. So it's a question of whether he's going to solo a sub 3:28 and I think he won't.
Kerr is capable of mid-3:28, to be charitable, and with others doing the work. JI is capable of mid-to-low 3:27 with very little help. At speeds like that, Kerr will also have no kick.
BTW, I noticed one odd detail in the semi-final. Obviously neither runner was going all out, but Kerr did not look that great to me. Very high shoulders, lots of of vertical movement, 'jerky' style. I hadn't noticed this until he was right next to JI, whose upper body seems almost motionless, everything moving in the direction of travel. This could be down to 'style', but over several races, Kerr seems to waste a lot of energy.
Based on what? He's never done anything even remotely approaching that realm. My guess is he can do mid to high 3:28 in a nicely paced race.
Thinking that a 26 year-old runner who's been stagnant at 3:29 for several years, will suddenly improve by almost 2.5 seconds, is pretty wild.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then? You'd have never saw the old Kerr winning at pre like he did or doing what he did indoors. He looks like a different runner
Kerr is faster now AND psychologically superior. He didn't even look at Jakob during the semi while Jakob kept turning to him. Kerr sees himself on a completely different level now and I don't think Jakob's actual confidence in the 1500 matches Kerr's. Kerr has beaten him when it most counted and has been walking the talk since, breaking a WR, claiming another WC win and beating Jakob again. He's on fire and clearly laser focused to assert himself in this event.
Kerr is capable of mid-3:28, to be charitable, and with others doing the work. JI is capable of mid-to-low 3:27 with very little help. At speeds like that, Kerr will also have no kick.
BTW, I noticed one odd detail in the semi-final. Obviously neither runner was going all out, but Kerr did not look that great to me. Very high shoulders, lots of of vertical movement, 'jerky' style. I hadn't noticed this until he was right next to JI, whose upper body seems almost motionless, everything moving in the direction of travel. This could be down to 'style', but over several races, Kerr seems to waste a lot of energy.
Jakob is the smoother runner of ALL. Kerr has always had the bouncy step, but brings massive power. Their styles have worked well for both and I don't see this as a factor at all.
No one is running a WR. Beating that requires meticulous shaving away of tenths of seconds during every part of the race, from the very start. Jostling for position from the get-go is already out of the question, which means forgetaboutit. Even if Jakob is capable (and I doubt he is), he can't do it during the Olympics.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then?
He hasn't. He has won two races, narrowly beating an ill or injured Jakob, running at reduced capacity. There is no regularity to what he's doing, two moderately decent races against weakened opposition, that's it.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then?
He hasn't. He has won two races, narrowly beating an ill or injured Jakob, running at reduced capacity. There is no regularity to what he's doing, two moderately decent races against weakened opposition, that's it.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then?
He hasn't. He has won two races, narrowly beating an ill or injured Jakob, running at reduced capacity. There is no regularity to what he's doing, two moderately decent races against weakened opposition, that's it.
Bowerman, world indoor 3000, indoor 2 mile WR, looks comfortable in the heats
If by 'always', you mean 'twice', then sure. He basically always wins, so if, in some rare occasions he doesn't (and comes second), it makes sense that there is an excuse, a good one too.
Kerr doesn't make excuses, he simply avoids racing, maybe Jakob should do that?
Now, I am not positive that JI will win. He could be in worse shape than expected, he could make a bad miscalculation, or he could have an accident. Then Kerr has a good chance, definitely.
If by 'always', you mean 'twice', then sure. He basically always wins, so if, in some rare occasions he doesn't (and comes second), it makes sense that there is an excuse, a good one too.
Kerr doesn't make excuses, he simply avoids racing, maybe Jakob should do that?
Now, I am not positive that JI will win. He could be in worse shape than expected, he could make a bad miscalculation, or he could have an accident. Then Kerr has a good chance, definitely.
Kerr has always had the bouncy step, but brings massive power. Their styles have worked well for both and I don't see this as a factor at all.
You may be right in terms of final result, but I do not really understand those who say Kerr looks more relaxed, when he seems so tense has so much extraneous movement.
You better be prepared to be shocked then. I think Jakob has something special up his sleeve for tomorrow. I'll be really surprised If he doesn't win this one.
That's an uncharitable reading. Being out of shape or miscalculating tactics are not excuses, but parts of the sport. Having an accident could be an excuse, but more often than not it's the result of taking risks. None of these would be 'valid excuses', unless it's an accident out of his control. Getting suddenly ill or injured is a valid excuse, imo.
I don't begrudge Wightman or Kerr their titles, it just seems disproportionate to assign 'top dog' or favorite status to Kerr, saying he is intrinsically better, when he has never beaten a fit Jakob (and has hardly won any big races at all), and the difference in capacity is so large. You can say Kerr won fairly, but you can't say he's a better runner or racer. Do you see the difference?
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Kerr has always had the bouncy step, but brings massive power. Their styles have worked well for both and I don't see this as a factor at all.
You may be right in terms of final result, but I do not really understand those who say Kerr looks more relaxed, when he seems so tense has so much extraneous movement.
I don't either. I see a very powerful runner but not smooth or relaxed. Relatively to his former self he has improved his mechanics though.
That's an uncharitable reading. Being out of shape or miscalculating tactics are not excuses, but parts of the sport. Having an accident could be an excuse, but more often than not it's the result of taking risks. None of these would be 'valid excuses', unless it's an accident out of his control. Getting suddenly ill or injured is a valid excuse, imo.
I don't begrudge Wightman or Kerr their titles, it just seems disproportionate to assign 'top dog' or favorite status to Kerr, saying he is intrinsically better, when he has never beaten a fit Jakob (and has hardly won any big races at all), and the difference in capacity is so large. You can say Kerr won fairly, but you can't say he's a better runner or racer. Do you see the difference?
Look, tbh I do believe Jakob is capable of faster times over 1500m and above but to say a world title over 3000m isn't a big race is mad especially considering Kerr was considered more of a 800/1500 not long ago. He also beat some guys with really respectable times at pre aside from Jakob. It's a results business and Kerr hasn't really put a foot wrong since Budapest
That's an uncharitable reading. Being out of shape or miscalculating tactics are not excuses, but parts of the sport. Having an accident could be an excuse, but more often than not it's the result of taking risks. None of these would be 'valid excuses', unless it's an accident out of his control. Getting suddenly ill or injured is a valid excuse, imo.
I don't begrudge Wightman or Kerr their titles, it just seems disproportionate to assign 'top dog' or favorite status to Kerr, saying he is intrinsically better, when he has never beaten a fit Jakob (and has hardly won any big races at all), and the difference in capacity is so large. You can say Kerr won fairly, but you can't say he's a better runner or racer. Do you see the difference?
My criticism of Jakob is that he never credits his opponents. If I were mildly sick it's not something I would highlight to a reporter when I get beaten in a championship race. I think it's strategically dumb also because that's the sort of perceived disrespect that fuels the competition. With Kerr for example he has helped to create a monster. I'm not fond of Kerr's outsized ego either but I can give the benefit of the doubt as long as someone is walking the talk. With these two sadly, someone is going to go home devastated, even with a silver.