There is an enormous difference between 3000 ' elevation and 7000' like at Mexico City. Not sure that it matters than much but maybe there is some table that would quantify this.
No it isn't. Syd's WR from hurdles was 50.65. Bol ran 50.95 three weeks ago at Resisprint La Chaux-de-Fonds.
Yes it is. Bol ran that 50.95 at altitude. That mark, as any reasonable knowledgeable athlete agnostic person knows, is not an accurate judge of a an athlete's ability given the altitude. Similar performance to Thompson of South Africa who had never run sub 10 before, but suddenly ran 9.86 at that same event. Similar to Kambundji who had not broken 11 this year, but suddenly ran almost the Swiss NR of 10.90. All three returned to sea level and have performed at their true level. None coming close to the altitude marks they set at that event in the mountains.
Paris Olympics is here at sea level, and it is claimed the track is super fast. We will see in a few days what's what.
It’s all kinda moot post today’s 47.9 split, but no altitude conversion in the world puts 50.95 400H @ under 1000ft as equivalent to the 51.45 needed for a 0.8 gap between Bol and Syd. Even the harshest conversions altitude correct 50.95 to ~51.1.
If anything, the Hayward track being fast as all hell is significantly more impactful than <1000m elevation in a 400H.
Either way... I'm writing her in for Pres in the 2024 US election. After the way she ABSOLUTELY DOMINATED that 4x4 anchor leg, she deserves to be US Pres.
Yes it is. Bol ran that 50.95 at altitude. That mark, as any reasonable knowledgeable athlete agnostic person knows, is not an accurate judge of a an athlete's ability given the altitude. Similar performance to Thompson of South Africa who had never run sub 10 before, but suddenly ran 9.86 at that same event. Similar to Kambundji who had not broken 11 this year, but suddenly ran almost the Swiss NR of 10.90. All three returned to sea level and have performed at their true level. None coming close to the altitude marks they set at that event in the mountains.
Paris Olympics is here at sea level, and it is claimed the track is super fast. We will see in a few days what's what.
It’s all kinda moot post today’s 47.9 split, but no altitude conversion in the world puts 50.95 400H @ under 1000ft as equivalent to the 51.45 needed for a 0.8 gap between Bol and Syd. Even the harshest conversions altitude correct 50.95 to ~51.1.
If anything, the Hayward track being fast as all hell is significantly more impactful than <1000m elevation in a 400H.
Y'all are forgetting that Bol also ran 51.30 in London, so that gap between them is .65 absolute max.
I'm not buying that the Swiss track is that insane. Only one other hurdler got a SB. The notion that the track was insanely fast came from 100m and 200m times with barely-legal tailwinds.
Anyone who thinks that SML isn’t still an overwhelming favorite is nuts.
Femke ran 51.3 two weeks ago in London on a fair track. SML ran 50.65 five weeks ago and 48.75 in an open 400 (equivalent to 48 low in a relay) with no competition almost two months ago. You don’t think Syd is fitter than she was when she ran those times? The athlete who has peaked perfectly at every championship for her entire career is gonna get this one wrong? The athlete who has literally never run even a mediocre race in her entire career?
When Syd ran 50.68 in 2022, she split 47.91 in the relay in a race the US won by 3 seconds. How much faster do you think she could have gone if she was chasing someone, or if she hadn’t run 3 rounds of the 400h, including a world record effort?
Syd is going to run something like 50.3 in the final. If Femke can do that, more power to her; it will be extraordinary. But it’s very difficult to imagine her winning the race more than about 10% of the time against one of the greatest living athletes who should be in peak form.
Anyone who thinks that SML isn’t still an overwhelming favorite is nuts.
Femke ran 51.3 two weeks ago in London on a fair track. SML ran 50.65 five weeks ago and 48.75 in an open 400 (equivalent to 48 low in a relay) with no competition almost two months ago. You don’t think Syd is fitter than she was when she ran those times? The athlete who has peaked perfectly at every championship for her entire career is gonna get this one wrong? The athlete who has literally never run even a mediocre race in her entire career?
When Syd ran 50.68 in 2022, she split 47.91 in the relay in a race the US won by 3 seconds. How much faster do you think she could have gone if she was chasing someone, or if she hadn’t run 3 rounds of the 400h, including a world record effort?
Syd is going to run something like 50.3 in the final. If Femke can do that, more power to her; it will be extraordinary. But it’s very difficult to imagine her winning the race more than about 10% of the time against one of the greatest living athletes who should be in peak form.
Syd is absolutely the overwhelming favorite.
But it's still disingenuous to assume Bol winning is completely out of the question. The gap between them is such that mixups for the gold/silver look more like "Syd clips the 10th hurdle and Bol comes close to her PR" than "Bol runs an absolutely ungodly performance for the race of her life while Syd has her worst effort ever".
I still think Syd wins -- she's been technically perfect in almost every hurdle race I've seen her run. But there's a reason we run races even when one person's faster on paper. Should be great either way.
The track is within the limits of what is considered "altitude" and that time is equally as legit as the WR that Sydney ran on a bouncy track where wind is often an uncertain factor.
But 0.8s was always going to be an inaccurate number because even if you compensate for altitude (and by doing so, treating the 400mH as equal to the flat 400m, as there is no calculation available for the 400mH) the gap would be about 0.5s.
Bol's 50.95 and SML's 50.65 are both still pending ratification. So if both are ratified, Bol gets the ER and SML the WR and there will be no asterisk by either time.