When you look at it he might only be 2 seconds back because the best ingebrigsten has done with championship rounds is 3:28. the best hocker has done with rounds is 3:30. my guess is he could sneak past Jakob and Kerr in the final 100. for reference the best El G did with rounds was 3:27
I think 5% is too high at 3:28, should be 2%. At 3:31 however I think it’s gotta be 30% I don’t see Kerr being or Jingy’s kick being much better (if at all than Hocker’s), they will be in better positions if assume, similar odds between the 3.
3:35 the only person beating him is Beamish or an 800 runner like Laros, put him at 40% because of how chaotic it would be (favored over Kerr and Jingy in that race) which could lead to him being boxed or other wild stuff happening.
Jakob closed the Budapest semi (a 3:34 race) in 51, running in lane 2 and waving to crowd. I doubt Hocker can come close to it at that pace.
Hocker ran 1 second slower in the last 400m in a race 4.5 seconds faster. The later is much more impressive than the former. There are levels to this.
I think Hobbs is more of a sleeper pick now. Since the 1500m final at the trials Hobbs took another step forward with the two best 800 meter races of his life. Hocker had a rough final in the 5,000m. I think that momentum can and will carry to the olympics. Hocker was beat down, Hobbs was on the up-swing. Hobbs is now a 1:43 guy who had a 3:31 PR before that. Maybe he's now a 3:30 flat guy. If the race is halfway tactical, he could maybe run the fastest last 600 meters.
It's tempting to get caught up in this kind of thinking with Hobbs running PRs and so young. However, this is not the case; Hocker is far stronger with his sub 13:00 5k and that will matter more with the rounds than Hobbs's 800m speed. Your logic would apply if we are talking about a single fresh race that is tactical.
I think Hocker is absolutely a dark horse for a gold medal. We just don't know for sure how this race will be run. Jacob has to worry about being reduced to Kerr's rabbit if he makes it a 3:28 (or faster) race. More likely we see something like a 58-57 (1:55) and then Jacob taking the lead and gradually applying the pressure. Maybe 54 third quarter (2:49) and 52.xx last lap? I could see Hocker being in the hunt but likely up for bronze in this scenario. X-factor: does Tim C. sacrifice himself to make a fast pace and pull them to sub 3:27-28? In this scenario, Nuguse is more likely to medal than Hocker.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
Yes, solely because we've seen him outkick an Olympic champion once before.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
Jesus no please stop. Hocker is and always will be a “also ran” he is a nobody in all possible ways. Nobody thinks he’s interesting, fast, or anything
please stop. Literally take any other name not in top 6 and they are just as likely as that person to win.
When you look at it he might only be 2 seconds back because the best ingebrigsten has done with championship rounds is 3:28. the best hocker has done with rounds is 3:30. my guess is he could sneak past Jakob and Kerr in the final 100. for reference the best El G did with rounds was 3:27
IMO rounds will have no impact on Jakob whatsoever… -And it doesn’t even matter if the heat and semis are fast or challenging (f.ex an effort very alike a 3.28 race because of wide bends, changes in pace, and so on).
So here’s my reasons why:
1. Heats are on Aug 2.th, semis Aug 4.th, final Aug 6 th: Even if Jakob has to breath a little or gets some lactate, there’s no way he would struggle to be ready for next race after a day of rest in between. -My guesses are that he even has to add some training all these days before the final, just to not ease up too much..!
2. Jakob is no superman. -Some races may sit in his body for days (his 2 mile WR race did for 5-6 days, his 3.43 mile (with jet lag) gave him a leggy race the next day, and in the Nationals this year he “almost lost” to Nordås in the 5000m because he ran an all out (windy) 1500m 14 hours previously…
3. My guesses are that even an all out 1500m is something Jakob fully recovers from with one rest day (contrary to an all out 3/5000m. And the chances are also small for all out 1500meters in the heat/semis for Jakob.
4. I think there’s a myth that rounds have to ruin good times in the final -in Tokyo OG both Jakob and Kerr (and also Hocker) made new PRs. And neither did Cheruiyot seem any reduced because of rounds. But Wightman did (The year after he had upped his strength, and pb’ed after rounds…).
5. Yes, Hocker is an exiting guy, but not because of rounds, IMO…
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
The strength part is true, but I feel like Kessler would be more successful after rounds than Hocker since his performance in the trials after the 1500m was a lot better. Also, Kessler still does 70-90 mpw with like 5 workouts a week even though he's a 800/1500 guy.
There is a lot of talk about these Americans who would not merit any discussion if they were not Americans, except Goose, who is a legitimate medal threat.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
Jakob and company aren't as stupid as you - sorry no disrespect. But WTH??
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"Comfort must not be expected by folks that go a pleasuring."
He's better than a sleeper pick. He needs a very specific race to pull out a medal or even win whereas the other favorites have better ability to adapt to any pace.
Everyone will be keying off Ingebrigtsen as usual, if he let's it go slow he has to be worried about Kerr, Kessler, and Hocker. If he pushes the pace he has to be worried about Kerr and Nuguse.
Yared's job is to keep the pace hot and let the chips fall where they may.
Kessler's job is to hope it turns into an 800 meter race.
Kerr's job is to wind it up from 500 meters out regardless of pace.
Hocker's job is to be there with 50 meters to go.
Not sure how Ingebrigtsen can win this race. Between a very fast 800 runner (Kessler) to incredibly strong 1500 specialists (Josh/Yared) to a very fast finisher (Hocker) he'll have a full plate. Not saying he won't win but he's in a very precarious position as the front runner. If he wins the 1500 I think he cements his GOAT status.
When you look at it he might only be 2 seconds back because the best ingebrigsten has done with championship rounds is 3:28. the best hocker has done with rounds is 3:30. my guess is he could sneak past Jakob and Kerr in the final 100. for reference the best El G did with rounds was 3:27
IMO rounds will have no impact on Jakob whatsoever… -And it doesn’t even matter if the heat and semis are fast or challenging (f.ex an effort very alike a 3.28 race because of wide bends, changes in pace, and so on).
So here’s my reasons why:
1. Heats are on Aug 2.th, semis Aug 4.th, final Aug 6 th: Even if Jakob has to breath a little or gets some lactate, there’s no way he would struggle to be ready for next race after a day of rest in between. -My guesses are that he even has to add some training all these days before the final, just to not ease up too much..!
2. Jakob is no superman. -Some races may sit in his body for days (his 2 mile WR race did for 5-6 days, his 3.43 mile (with jet lag) gave him a leggy race the next day, and in the Nationals this year he “almost lost” to Nordås in the 5000m because he ran an all out (windy) 1500m 14 hours previously…
3. My guesses are that even an all out 1500m is something Jakob fully recovers from with one rest day (contrary to an all out 3/5000m. And the chances are also small for all out 1500meters in the heat/semis for Jakob.
4. I think there’s a myth that rounds have to ruin good times in the final -in Tokyo OG both Jakob and Kerr (and also Hocker) made new PRs. And neither did Cheruiyot seem any reduced because of rounds. But Wightman did (The year after he had upped his strength, and pb’ed after rounds…).
5. Yes, Hocker is an exiting guy, but not because of rounds, IMO…
I agree with you. But I'll simplify. The guy is an aerobic monster who just happens to be able to run a 1500 in 3:26.73. That's really all you need to know.
He's better than a sleeper pick. He needs a very specific race to pull out a medal or even win whereas the other favorites have better ability to adapt to any pace.
Everyone will be keying off Ingebrigtsen as usual, if he let's it go slow he has to be worried about Kerr, Kessler, and Hocker. If he pushes the pace he has to be worried about Kerr and Nuguse.
Yared's job is to keep the pace hot and let the chips fall where they may.
Kessler's job is to hope it turns into an 800 meter race.
Kerr's job is to wind it up from 500 meters out regardless of pace.
Hocker's job is to be there with 50 meters to go.
Not sure how Ingebrigtsen can win this race. Between a very fast 800 runner (Kessler) to incredibly strong 1500 specialists (Josh/Yared) to a very fast finisher (Hocker) he'll have a full plate. Not saying he won't win but he's in a very precarious position as the front runner. If he wins the 1500 I think he cements his GOAT status.
Hocker doesn't have the lactate threshold any of these guys do. They aren't going to let it come down to this. Mercy.
He's better than a sleeper pick. He needs a very specific race to pull out a medal or even win whereas the other favorites have better ability to adapt to any pace.
Everyone will be keying off Ingebrigtsen as usual, if he let's it go slow he has to be worried about Kerr, Kessler, and Hocker. If he pushes the pace he has to be worried about Kerr and Nuguse.
Yared's job is to keep the pace hot and let the chips fall where they may.
Kessler's job is to hope it turns into an 800 meter race.
Kerr's job is to wind it up from 500 meters out regardless of pace.
Hocker's job is to be there with 50 meters to go.
Not sure how Ingebrigtsen can win this race. Between a very fast 800 runner (Kessler) to incredibly strong 1500 specialists (Josh/Yared) to a very fast finisher (Hocker) he'll have a full plate. Not saying he won't win but he's in a very precarious position as the front runner. If he wins the 1500 I think he cements his GOAT status.
Oh please. That is like saying “I am not sure how Hicham can win this race.” Jakob can win for sure, and almost none of those guys you mentioned are in his league. Of course he can be beaten, as could Hicham, but it is absurd to act like it is a low possibility that Jakob wins.
Hocker would have to stick his nose in it, but he won’t. He needs to be top three at the bell to have a chance, otherwise he kicks for third.
Why wouldn't he take that chance? He knows this may never come around ever again.
Hocker is NOT good enough. Fanboys will be fanboys but Hocker is NOT good enough. Accept it and quit being delusional. Many of you look really stupid here.
He's better than a sleeper pick. He needs a very specific race to pull out a medal or even win whereas the other favorites have better ability to adapt to any pace.
Everyone will be keying off Ingebrigtsen as usual, if he let's it go slow he has to be worried about Kerr, Kessler, and Hocker. If he pushes the pace he has to be worried about Kerr and Nuguse.
Yared's job is to keep the pace hot and let the chips fall where they may.
Kessler's job is to hope it turns into an 800 meter race.
Kerr's job is to wind it up from 500 meters out regardless of pace.
Hocker's job is to be there with 50 meters to go.
Not sure how Ingebrigtsen can win this race. Between a very fast 800 runner (Kessler) to incredibly strong 1500 specialists (Josh/Yared) to a very fast finisher (Hocker) he'll have a full plate. Not saying he won't win but he's in a very precarious position as the front runner. If he wins the 1500 I think he cements his GOAT status.
Oh please. That is like saying “I am not sure how Hicham can win this race.” Jakob can win for sure, and almost none of those guys you mentioned are in his league. Of course he can be beaten, as could Hicham, but it is absurd to act like it is a low possibility that Jakob wins.
IF the race is slow enough, a 3:30/8:06 guy can beat a 3:26/7:54 guy. LOLOLOLOL. Only right here on letsrun can this be a possibility. This site is incredible.
Why wouldn't he take that chance? He knows this may never come around ever again.
Hocker is NOT good enough. Fanboys will be fanboys but Hocker is NOT good enough. Accept it and quit being delusional. Many of you look really stupid here.
Blow your wad elsewhere, idiot.
The question was why wouldn't Hocker put himself in contention this time around as not doing so in either Tokyo or Budapest meant the race had already gotten away from him before he could wind it up.