WTH: T&FN pick P. VALBY to win women's U.S Olympic Trials 5000m 😵

I think the case with collegiate Valby, versus the typical pro “2x peak”, is that for the last couple of years, she has maintained overall (while consistently building) throughout the year a high level of base conditioning. So your point is understandable.

However, there may still be some extra juice in the Valby orange because:

(1) we don’t know how much taper she got going into what were incredible collegiate performances;

(2) she still hasn’t had the benefit of racing athletes at or above her level to find out if that extra push and motivation from doing so can extract a higher performance level.

Did pros, like Cranny, Monson, Schweizer, Coburn continue to improve after college, in ensuing years, simply from staying consistent, putting in the work?

agree w/ most that it's wild to pick Valby as the winner. having said that "if the final is slow" ... that's the thing with Parker...it will 100% NOT be slow. she's going to push this crew to a fast race, for better or for worse. she cannot handle and doesn't like to run slowly, and given she's not known for her leg speed, it's wise.

There's also the negative of your second point. She hasn't had to race in traffic, jostling for position. What's she going to do when she takes a milk muscle elbow from ESP as they are all trying to get in position to make a move? How does she respond when 5-7 women easily cover her move with 2000m to go? There's at least three women who can run 4 flat or faster over 1500m in that 5000. Valby can't, or she would have been running the 1500 in the NCAA level. All that can get in her head and she loses 5 -10 seconds in the last 800 on the winner. She could also squeeze down the race to a top three and just make sure to gap 4th enough to qualify for the team, a move like that could result in a win. It's a good strategy, but unknown if she will be feeling good enough on the day and fit enough to pull it off.

Someone else said there is no way ESP goes 0 for 2. I disagree, there are way too many variables to suggest she's assured at winning at least 1 event. Maybe Valby gaps the field in the 5 and the rest of the field thinks they'll pull her in but she stays away. Maybe Cranny makes a move and ESP isn't feeling it and chooses to not empty the tank with the 1500 coming. In the 1500 there are too many good racer. Hiltz, McKay, Wiley and maybe Johnson have better 800 speed. I think ESP is a lock to make the olympic team. I think she'd be smart to race for top 3 in the 5000 and go for the win if its there, and then race for the win in the 1500. She's doubling because she knows an off race and she's 4th or 5th in the 1500 and not on the team and missing her best chance at an olympic medal, in her prime, no matter how improbable that is.

After her last race, McKay in the 1500m has possibly put some question marks in her opponent’s heads.

Friendly reminder, when you make a post referring to another article, please link to it:

trackandfieldnews.com

2024 Olympic Trials Women’s Final Formchart - Track & Field News

Sieg Lindstrom

FEARLESS FORECASTING by Jack Pfeifer as of June 19 Team USA for August’s Olympic Games in Paris will be chosen... Read More

Link:trackandfieldnews.com/2024-olympic-tri...

DId someone actually post this? Please link to it? Were they serious? I"m about to enter the world-famous $200,024 prediction contest and want to win it.

I am so excited to see Tuohy race again. I hope she has a great race! It is so good to see her back!

False. You think she's going to be tired from a Monday night 5000 the following Sunday?

I think if Valby goes up to altitude this winter, adds in a little more running, doesn’t have to do school, she will get better and will contend for the win and multiple years of teams! (if she stays healthy) But you can also say that about a lot of people. Alicia ran 15:30 in college and Karissa ran 15:20, but they both say they were undertrained in college(and both graduated before super shoes). Elly Henes also much better after flag training for a year.

But that’s more about the future. How much better can Valby get from what she did this spring to the Trials this week? Can only speculate on her training/taper. We will find out soon.

(1) Q: How much better can Valby be from an incredible spring?

A: Consider Valby’s total experience in racing the 10000m distance is one race, and that was solo, passing a bunch of athletes on the track.

(2): Q: Can she stay healthy as a pro?

A: The worst thing that could happen for Valby is to go off to a new training group that has total disregard for the training that produced the greatest ever female collegiate distance runner. Getting injured on top of that would be even worse.

(3) Q: Will improvements come from things like going to altitude, adding in more running, simplifying the schedule without worrying about school?

A: All of those things quite possibly can help; that said, the top sponsor of distance athletes in this country (being Valby’s NIL sponsor) for some inexplicable reason (except maybe for cost and convenience to them) has not set up a year-round living-and-training-at-altitude situation, that parallels that of OAC or Team-BOSS.

However, there is even a bigger unknown with Valby. She currently has something going on with her stride, and if it could be rectified, she possibly could become a lot faster from the consequent improvement in running economy. But who knows, maybe (or not) Valby will truly shine when she is on the roads, free from the confines and torque of the track.

Yes they posted it. No she didn't run it. Her lifetime PR won't be that fast.

One of the most respected T&F organizations picked her. Imagine what pushback posters receive when posting something similar.

On paper, Valby is fourth, maybe even fifth behind Josette Andrews. But we really do not know what Valby is capable of because she has not had any real competition on the track this spring. We do know that she is a very strong runner and will not have an issue running rounds because she has doubled at NCAA (outdoor and indoor). This will be her first time running a true championship race which will require a huge kick the last 400-800m. Front running and pushing the pace will not shake ESP, Cranny and Schweizter (or Andrews).

I do think that we have not seen the best Valby has. And I do think she has the potential to win a US champ. She just looks different. She has a very long and powerful stride and looks like she is just gliding along effortlessly (yes, I know she has a wabble in her stride). She reminds me of Paula Radcliffe. So, I think it will be very exciting to see whether she can level up and make the team.

That's crazy; I don't think she will finish top-3.

I can definitely see Valby beating Schweizer. Cranny and ESP are untouchable. Everyone else is also beatable.

What T&FN thinks is irrelevant. They're an unofficial magazine run by old white male statheads.

surely you realize that this, like way too much on this message boards, is likely made up.