How should Ethiopians race to win 5000m in Paris?

2012Gebremeskel wrote:

As the dust finally has settled after DL Oslo we start looking forward to Paris (there's Europeans first of course). Now, judging by the last two WC 5000s that Jakob won, and the 5k in Tokyo (which he probably also would win), we can probably say that in a race that finishes over or around 13:00 Jakob probably wins. I've seen a lot of takes on here that Jakob wins the 5k in Paris no matter how the race develops, but I would like to hear some more takes on this. Now, assuming Jakob doubles (which he prob will), he will have 1500m Heat 1 on August 2nd, Semis on August 4th, and Final on August 6th. Then, he'll have 5000m Heat 1 on August 7th, and Final on August 10th.

Now, 10,000m final is on August 2nd, and I think that Ethiopia should send 6 (at least 5) different athletes to compete in the two events, as I think this greatly increases their chances to medal. If Gebrehiwet and/or Kejelcha (I assume Ugandans will run the 10k first) comes in to the 5k fresh, do people really still believe that they stand no chance against Jakob?

I'd like people to freely discuss which scenarios they think we could see for the 5k in Paris and also which scenarios we would have to see in order for Jakob NOT to win.

Note: I'm writing this because in previous comps (WC 2022 and 2023) I've been "frustrated" in how Jakob has been handed the gold by people being afraid to set the pace and the races being won in slow times (13:11 and 13:09). Please note that I have nothing against Jakob or anyone else for that matter. I would just like everyone to play off their strengths in order to get the most competitive race possible. Knowing that Ugandans, Ethiopians and (maybe) Kenyans CAN run 12.40 times, but choose to (or afraid to) not set the pace just to hand the races to faster 1500m guys. DISCUSS! Happy to hear thought on this.

Pikachu wrote:

2012Gebremeskel wrote:

As the dust finally has settled after DL Oslo we start looking forward to Paris (there's Europeans first of course). Now, judging by the last two WC 5000s that Jakob won, and the 5k in Tokyo (which he probably also would win), we can probably say that in a race that finishes over or around 13:00 Jakob probably wins. I've seen a lot of takes on here that Jakob wins the 5k in Paris no matter how the race develops, but I would like to hear some more takes on this. Now, assuming Jakob doubles (which he prob will), he will have 1500m Heat 1 on August 2nd, Semis on August 4th, and Final on August 6th. Then, he'll have 5000m Heat 1 on August 7th, and Final on August 10th.

Now, 10,000m final is on August 2nd, and I think that Ethiopia should send 6 (at least 5) different athletes to compete in the two events, as I think this greatly increases their chances to medal. If Gebrehiwet and/or Kejelcha (I assume Ugandans will run the 10k first) comes in to the 5k fresh, do people really still believe that they stand no chance against Jakob?

I'd like people to freely discuss which scenarios they think we could see for the 5k in Paris and also which scenarios we would have to see in order for Jakob NOT to win.

Note: I'm writing this because in previous comps (WC 2022 and 2023) I've been "frustrated" in how Jakob has been handed the gold by people being afraid to set the pace and the races being won in slow times (13:11 and 13:09). Please note that I have nothing against Jakob or anyone else for that matter. I would just like everyone to play off their strengths in order to get the most competitive race possible. Knowing that Ugandans, Ethiopians and (maybe) Kenyans CAN run 12.40 times, but choose to (or afraid to) not set the pace just to hand the races to faster 1500m guys. DISCUSS! Happy to hear thought on this.

I think to optimize chances for an Ethiopian victory they should let their slowest guy pace HARD from 2000 - 4600 (59/60" laps) and then hope JI is not able to kick super fast.

Even when they chill for 2k, a hard last 3k after 3 x 1500 and the 5k heat is a tough thing. Although I feel like JI at his best is close to 12:30...

objectiveobserver wrote:

Pikachu wrote:

I think to optimize chances for an Ethiopian victory they should let their slowest guy pace HARD from 2000 - 4600 (59/60" laps) and then hope JI is not able to kick super fast.

Even when they chill for 2k, a hard last 3k after 3 x 1500 and the 5k heat is a tough thing. Although I feel like JI at his best is close to 12:30...

You - and many others here - take it as a truth that the three 1500m races and the 5000m heat is a disadvantage for Jakob (and everyone else).

But it normally isn´t. If a runner comes into the championship in good aerobic shape the heats and final in another distance often work well as SHARPENERS and if the last final (as the 5000m final in Paris) is three days after the last race the runner will quite possible experience SUPER COMPENSATION so this last race can be the best in the whole championship.

Dare I refer to my own experience as a elite master runner:

When i participated in my first international champs (European Champs) in my early 50s I first competed in the 1500m where I qualified for the final running a SB of about 5 seconds. In the final I ran slightly slower placing 10 out of 15.

Then I competed in the 800m which was my best event and ran fast enough to qualify for the semifinal which was two days later. In the semifinal I ran a small SB (high 2:08) and placed two so I thought in my naivety I had a chance to medal. In the final (again 2 days later) I improved my season best with about 1.5 second but unfortunately all "the old circus horses" did the same "when the music played" (I am quite certain that every single one set SB in the final) so I ended 7 out of 8.

---------------

Other examples I have given in the past:

Peter Snell in the 1960 Rome OG: The internationally completely unknown 800m runner from NZ arrived in Rome with a 1:49.2 PB.

They ran 2 heats the first day!, semifinal the next day and final the third day. Snell set PB 3 times 1 per day and famously outsprinted the heavy favorite Belgian Moens in the final.

PB in the final: 1:46.48.

----------------

Recent example: Kerr in 2021 Tokyo OG. Kerr ran a bad heat where he only just qualified on time. You can, however, sharpen even from a bad race so in the semi final he got a "Q" and in the final he ran a great race setting a big PB (low 3:29) and winning bronze.

observer of strange observations wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

You - and many others here - take it as a truth that the three 1500m races and the 5000m heat is a disadvantage for Jakob (and everyone else).

But it normally isn´t. If a runner comes into the championship in good aerobic shape the heats and final in another distance often work well as SHARPENERS and if the last final (as the 5000m final in Paris) is three days after the last race the runner will quite possible experience SUPER COMPENSATION so this last race can be the best in the whole championship.

Dare I refer to my own experience as a elite master runner:

When i participated in my first international champs (European Champs) in my early 50s I first competed in the 1500m where I qualified for the final running a SB of about 5 seconds. In the final I ran slightly slower placing 10 out of 15.

Then I competed in the 800m which was my best event and ran fast enough to qualify for the semifinal which was two days later. In the semifinal I ran a small SB (high 2:08) and placed two so I thought in my naivety I had a chance to medal. In the final (again 2 days later) I improved my season best with about 1.5 second but unfortunately all "the old circus horses" did the same "when the music played" (I am quite certain that every single one set SB in the final) so I ended 7 out of 8.

---------------

Other examples I have given in the past:

Peter Snell in the 1960 Rome OG: The internationally completely unknown 800m runner from NZ arrived in Rome with a 1:49.2 PB.

They ran 2 heats the first day!, semifinal the next day and final the third day. Snell set PB 3 times 1 per day and famously outsprinted the heavy favorite Belgian Moens in the final.

PB in the final: 1:46.48.

----------------

Recent example: Kerr in 2021 Tokyo OG. Kerr ran a bad heat where he only just qualified on time. You can, however, sharpen even from a bad race so in the semi final he got a "Q" and in the final he ran a great race setting a big PB (low 3:29) and winning bronze.

Yeah. People often run faster in finals than in qualifying rounds. Sometimes they even PB. I think we all know that. And no, your experience running 2:08 800s against 50 year-olds is not relevant to the Olympic 5000 meter final.