My Unhinged Oslo 1500m Take: Jakob is done

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1 month ago 05/31/2024 10:24am EDT

re: Hingebrigtsen

Hingebrigtsen wrote:
I would not be surprised if Jakob leaves Paris this summer without any Olympic medals.

He will be in the mix in the 1500 and the 5000. That is not in question. It is possible that he gets beat (as we have seen) but to predict he's off the medal stand is a bad bet.

I would say he is "top three" in his two events and that is proven by his results year in and year out. He will medal.

But he is so good and so feared/respected/hated that the only "win" for him is double gold. That is, of course, a compliment to him. His last two WC Gold+Silver results have been seen as huge failures. Setting the bar that high tells us what we all expect from Jakob.

I like Hagos in the 5 after last night but I worry about his age and getting through the rounds fresh. I like Kerr in the 1500 (obviously), but I really like Jakob in both events...

1 month ago 05/31/2024 1:23pm EDT

re: 21218

21218 wrote:
it's the career killer, don't deny it wrote:
An Achilles injury. Have you got a clue about that?
Noone comes back 100%. Beginning of the end. He'll be pretty good. He'll run like 3:45, and 3:29, as we're seeing. Maybe a 3:28 later.
Do you have any clue about what kind of achilles injury he specifially has had? Sounds like you assume it is some kind of career threatening injury.

It's what we call a "safe assumption" here in the real world.

Go find me a top athlete who came back 100% after an Achilles injury. I'll wait.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 1:27pm EDT

re: Badtower

Badtower wrote:
My kid lives in Eugene (was at the Pre actually) and we went to Oslo from there last summer. I don’t know if Ingebrigtsen has a private jet? But it takes a hell of a lot longer than 9 hours. Took us over 15. Drive plus flight from Portland is 14+. The tired legs then travel would be an absolute nightmare.

Its not the travel time that is 9 hours, its the time zone difference..

1 month ago 05/31/2024 1:37pm EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The weight of fatherhood: identifying mechanisms to explain paternal perinatal weight gain - PubMed

Men appear to gain weight during the transition to parenthood, and fathers are heavier than non-fathers. Paternal perinatal weight gain may set weight trajectories in midlife and have long-term health implications. Since men...

Link:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29712505/

Any chance he's put on a little weight due to his wife's pregnancy? Lot of evidence towards this phenomenon and would explain his slight lack of sharpness to start this year.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 3:20pm EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

He was injured, so maybe this year won't be as good as 2023.

On a different note, no White American has ever broken 3:30 for 1500m. Europeans and Aussies/NZ's have been doing it for nearly 40 years. We're weak at the event.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 4:21pm EDT

re: Coevett

Coevett wrote:
It was raining, he effectively solo ran it, he ran a 3:45 mile in America just 5 days ago.

It wasn't raining during the 1500m. Some few sprinkles, but not enough to be considered a distraction. I was there, at the finish line. The second part of your statement is 100% accurate.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 5:08pm EDT

re: Daddy Bod

Daddy Bod wrote:
Link:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29712505/
Any chance he's put on a little weight due to his wife's pregnancy? Lot of evidence towards this phenomenon and would explain his slight lack of sharpness to start this year.

Yes I’m sure 122 miles a week gives much room for a weight gain…

1 month ago 05/31/2024 5:56pm EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtse

Jakob Ingebrigtse wrote:

I don´t think Kerr will run in Monaco.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 6:22pm EDT

re: Ruxton Towers XC

Ruxton Towers XC wrote:
Hingebrigtsen wrote:
I would not be surprised if Jakob leaves Paris this summer without any Olympic medals.
He will be in the mix in the 1500 and the 5000. That is not in question. It is possible that he gets beat (as we have seen) but to predict he's off the medal stand is a bad bet.
I would say he is "top three" in his two events and that is proven by his results year in and year out. He will medal.
But he is so good and so feared/respected/hated that the only "win" for him is double gold. That is, of course, a compliment to him. His last two WC Gold+Silver results have been seen as huge failures. Setting the bar that high tells us what we all expect from Jakob.
I like Hagos in the 5 after last night but I worry about his age and getting through the rounds fresh. I like Kerr in the 1500 (obviously), but I really like Jakob in both events...

I’m not predicting he’ll be off the medal stand. Just saying it wouldn’t surprise me. I just have a feeling that he’s in trouble this year. He had the achilles issue, and now it seems like he’s trying to rush back to where he was last year and trying to make up for lost time by doing all these races.

The way things are headed, it looks like he could run out of steam by the time Paris rolls around. It wouldn’t surprise me if his ego gets the best of him trying to duke it out with Kerr in the 1500, and he winds up getting 4th in that event. Then it wouldn’t surprise me if he has little left for the 5000 kind of like Cheptegei the last two years. Don’t be surprised if that’s what happens. I won’t be.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 8:13pm EDT

re: Hingebrigtsen

Like someone else stated do not underestimate the impact of travel and jet lag

look at Jessica Hull. Clearly was a step back of her usual too.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 8:16pm EDT

re: NAAdvises

NAAdvises wrote:
Imagine the struggle of these Non African haters ... when the "cause" to worship is not that solide faith.
I'm seeing them falling one after the other ... until the track reach the natural state it was on years ago.

The last time we had the "natural state" you're referring to, there wasn't good drug testing. What a coincidence, the "natural state" can only exist when cheating is possible ;)

1 month ago 05/31/2024 10:25pm EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Soooo, you're saying he'll leave Paris with two silver medals? Damn, how embarrassing? He should just hang up the spikes now, before he makes a fool of himself.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 11:41pm EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Jakob Ingebrigtsen wrote:
There you have it folks, the guy is not the same as last year. Opened up with a 3:27.95 last year and now struggles to go under 3:30. All downhill from here with this new baby coming up and his lack of motivation to train. A bunch of africans ran under 12:40 as well so no gold for him either in the 5k with this fitness. New Olympic Champions in Paris this year: Josh Kerr and Yomif Kejelecha!

Never do predictions in track and field.

1 month ago 05/31/2024 11:44pm EDT

re: NAAdvises

Yomif Keshelja is particularly a loser.

Kerr is some kind of El Bakkali, if he do too much races, his weakness appear.

1 month ago 06/01/2024 4:28am EDT

re: NAAdvises

NAAdvises wrote:
Yomif Keshelja is particularly a loser.
Kerr is some kind of El Bakkali, if he do too much races, his weakness appear.

And you do too many drunk your English not improve.

it\'s the career killer, don\'t deny it wrote:
21218 wrote:
Do you have any clue about what kind of achilles injury he specifially has had? Sounds like you assume it is some kind of career threatening injury.
It's what we call a "safe assumption" here in the real world.
Go find me a top athlete who came back 100% after an Achilles injury. I'll wait.

Michael Jordan, Steph curry-- you might have heard of them

1 month ago 06/01/2024 10:33am EDT

re: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Jakob Ingebrigtsen wrote:
There you have it folks, the guy is not the same as last year. Opened up with a 3:27.95 last year and now struggles to go under 3:30. All downhill from here with this new baby coming up and his lack of motivation to train. A bunch of africans ran under 12:40 as well so no gold for him either in the 5k with this fitness. New Olympic Champions in Paris this year: Josh Kerr and Yomif Kejelecha!

I text my best friend after the meet the same thing. Jakob has two pending bronze medals coming his way

1 month ago 06/01/2024 11:03am EDT

re: westsouthrunner

westsouthrunner wrote:
Jakob Ingebrigtsen wrote:
There you have it folks, the guy is not the same as last year. Opened up with a 3:27.95 last year and now struggles to go under 3:30. All downhill from here with this new baby coming up and his lack of motivation to train. A bunch of africans ran under 12:40 as well so no gold for him either in the 5k with this fitness. New Olympic Champions in Paris this year: Josh Kerr and Yomif Kejelecha!
I text my best friend after the meet the same thing. Jakob has two pending bronze medals coming his way

There are very few runners in the world where it would be a letdown to win double olympic bronze.

1 month ago 06/01/2024 11:58am EDT

re: LarsL11

LarsL11 wrote:
westsouthrunner wrote:
I text my best friend after the meet the same thing. Jakob has two pending bronze medals coming his way
There are very few runners in the world where it would be a letdown to win double olympic bronze.

True but on these messages boards it would basically be a letdown for yared, Kerr, or Jakob to earn a bronze. Not in my opinion though a medal is a medal

1 month ago 06/01/2024 12:33pm EDT

re: Hingebrigtsen

Hingebrigtsen wrote:
I’m not predicting he’ll be off the medal stand. Just saying it wouldn’t surprise me. I just have a feeling that he’s in trouble this year. He had the achilles issue, and now it seems like he’s trying to rush back to where he was last year and trying to make up for lost time by doing all these races.
The way things are headed, it looks like he could run out of steam by the time Paris rolls around. It wouldn’t surprise me if his ego gets the best of him trying to duke it out with Kerr in the 1500, and he winds up getting 4th in that event. Then it wouldn’t surprise me if he has little left for the 5000 kind of like Cheptegei the last two years. Don’t be surprised if that’s what happens. I won’t be.

I don’t get this run out of steam notion. He has a ridiculous base and has put in a couple of months of 100 mpw base. Now he races with these 2 races, Euros then heads down hard training with maybe just Monaco/Norwegian Champs to break it up. He’s not a guy who’ll be running 30mpw and coasting through AugustX

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