D3 XC Nationals 2024 thread

This is not true, I know for a fact that Hall and Hillyard are not returning

Nah. Plus CMU will always be on top where it matters in high-end D3 athletics: autism.

literally spoke to hall last week. He's returning.

do cmu runners talk to women???

That depends, do you consider a robot with a female name a woman? Then yes.

Everyone thinks they have the best freshmen recruit class coming in. Congrats. Good for you. Reap the benefits in a few years, most top-10 cross country teams at NCAAs are lead by juniors and seniors. Yes you get the Schermerhorns of the world who are studs and contribute right away, not every "amazing recruit class" or transfer is going to contribute. Far too many times you see those people fade from the scene, get hurt trying to be the biggest boy on the start line, then transfer or quit because they aren't as successful as they were in high school.

Hot Take: the best freshmen recruit class benefits the women's side more than anything.

I’m going to weigh in on the East/Mideast, primarily the NESCAC squads and how they stack up against their respective regions. It’s a conference that consistently sends 4-5, sometimes 6 teams to the big dance, so figured my perspective might be useful on a thread like this. I’m going to give each team’s anaylsis based on regional finishes last year and then offer where I think the squads rank headed into this year.

East: MIT (Q)
This region is a really big question mark this year for me and is significantly weaker than in years past. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the East gets snubbed of at-large bids altogether, but that will also depend on how these teams stack up at inter-regional invitationals. The engineers got destroyed by graduation (Vedang, Hensgen, Acquaviva, Schofield) but I think they have the depth (Cobb, Sun, Hardart) to still win this region in a year when everyone else also suffers pretty heavy graduation losses. They always seem to overperform on the grass (the national title in 2022 is a prime example, I guess that year was the snow), they are coached well, and they recruit contributors consistently. Still, Vedang, Hensgen, and Acquaviva went 1-3 at the regional meet last year and that’s about a big of a loss as you can fathom. I think MIT takes a significant step backward in terms of national placement and I don’t think they run away with the region (like they have recently) by any means, but I do think they have the experience and pieces to squeak out the big Q in this region.

Tufts finished second last year but it’s going to be a battle to maintain that spot this year. Their low stick, Ivan Appelton, is a serious question mark going into the fall after not having raced all spring. I’ve heard rumors that he might not compete in the fall which would be a huge blow. Wagude graduating doesn’t help their case either. The kid can’t run in circles but he finished top 5 at the XC conference meet and was a key piece on a team that qualified for nationals the past 3 years. This is another team with depth (all seven of their regionals squad earned all region honors in 2023), and they have a high ceiling and a low floor in my eyes depending on Appelton’s status in the fall. If he returns to form I could realistically see Tufts winning the region. If he doesn’t compete I could see this team losing to Bates, Bowdoin, or both. Calvin Cummings was also a major contributor for the Jumbos last fall but did not race in the spring. More questions than answers with this squad.

Bates was third last year with a surprise upset at the regional meet when they beat Bowdoin whom they lost to at both the Maine State Meet and the conference championship. That was an impressive showing and it’s always fun to spoil your rivals chances of qualifying for nationals. Ned Farrington, Victor Kerring, and Sam Kartonsis were their top three last year and they are all gone. I was impressed with what I saw from Ben Huston and Andrew Mottur specifically at that regional meet but aside from that race they were unimpressive in 2023 XC. The success of this team is going to be dependent on how big of a step forward those two guys can take. Huston was on the right track this spring, running 3:53 and 14:58, but Mottur didn’t race. I don’t expect their 800m breakout, Ross Tejada, to contribute much in cross based on recent history. They have a young duo of Miles Logan (1:56, 2:32, 3:57) and Callahan Porter (3:57, 8:46, 15:50) who will also need to take a major step forward. I think this Bates team will be the worst Bates team we’ve seen in the past 4 years and I don’t expect them to qualify.

Bowdoin was fourth last year at the regional meet after being nationally ranked all season long for the first time in recent memory. This team had potential last year with strong returners and a strong first year class but just couldn’t really put the pieces together when it mattered the most. Say what you want about their inter-regional schedule and its effects on their nationals chances, but they fell flat at the regional meet and that was the final nail in the coffin. The good news for these guys is that they only lose Brooks Peters and Sam Angevine from the regional squad last year, and Will Goddard has really come into his own as the feature guy in the Polar Bear uniform. He’s my pick to win the region individually this year. Their team success will depend on their fourth and fifth guys. I expect Seamus McDonough to be a really solid #2 this year as a sophomore and Ben Bockmann has been a consistent middle of the pack guy although I’d like to see him really step up as the #3 guy in the black and white as a senior. Not sure who falls in behind those two (Brandes, Servin, Dunlap?).

I’m going to lump WPI and Colby into this last paragraph. After a questionable at-large bid in 2021, WPI has struggled to refind that same level of team success and it won’t be any easier with the departure of David Reynolds and Avi Bissoondial who were both super legit and individual qualifiers in 2023. I’d expect this squad to take a step back and fall out of the top 5 in the region this season. Taking their spot I think is the Colby Mules who will need to rally behind Gordon Doore who had a tremendous outdoor season (3:46) and has also shown he can contribute in cross country.

Mid-Summer East Rankings:
MIT (Q)
Tufts
Bowdoin
Bates
Colby

Mideast: Amherst (Q), RPI (q), Middlebury (q), Williams (q)
Williams has historically been fighting for the automatic Mideast bid, but I don’t think that is the case this year. They really got decimated by gradation (John Lucey, Nate Lentz, Chris Ratcliffe, Pet Theveny). That’s 4 of their 7 and Lentz and Lucey were both all-Americans with Lucey finishing top 15 at the national meet in 2023. Losing a guy of that caliber is a big deal. Chuckie Namiot is an absolute dog and that showed this spring. He was a 10k All-American after running 29:13 down in Raleigh. That is a very impressive outdoor campaign and I expect him to step into Lucey’s shoes and probably win the Mideast region individually in the Fall. If he doesn’t race well though, the Ephs will be in a really tough spot. Nikhil Denatale was an All-American in 2023 (21st) and then ran 14:20 at BU in December. For Gods sake he was runner up at the regional meet in 2023. I was super high on him going into track, especially as a steepler. I’m not sure what happened but he took a major step back in the spring and couldn’t seem to replicate that same level of success (15:03, 4:11). I’m really hoping he can return to form and if that happens, I’d expect Williams to qualify for the national meet but by no means win the region. It’d be crazy if Williams missed an at-large bid. That would be the first time that happened in a long long time.

I like a lot of what has already been said about RPI on this thread. I’m not super familiar with the squad and I’m not entirely sure about their graduation situation, but from what I’ve gathered they lose Cory Kennedy, Mitchell Dailey, and Jason Gibbons? But Kennedy and Dailey are listed as JRs on TFFRS? Not sure. COVID has made this all so confusing. Please clarify if I’m getting this wrong. Even if all three of those guys are gone, this team still has the pieces to easily go to the national meet although maybe not the pieces to produce another top 10 finish. Vince Simonetti is a 14:01 guy and he’s still around as far as I know. He’ll compete w/ Chuckie for the regional title. Justin Cascio was top 100 at the national meet last year and he’ll be a junior, although I expected to see some better times from him this spring. Bottom line: this team is still really good.

This Amherst squad is good, great even, and I think they take a really significant step forward this year and could threaten to win the region. They are young and proven on the grass and they seem to show up when it matters the most (I’m remembering the 2023 NESCAC XC championship, granted it was on their home course). Harrison Dow, Henry Dennen, and Stan Craig form a really scary top 3, and they all produced the track results this spring to back it up and warrant some hype headed into the Fall. There are rumors on the NESCAC thread that they are getting a BU transfer who may contribute immediately (not sure how true these are). If that’s the case and they can get some combination of Aidan Gemme, the BU kid, and Thomas Stephens to race up to their potential, don’t be surprised if this team shocks some people and wins the region.

Middlebury is an interesting squad that wasn’t decimated by graduation and has a fairly strong top 5 of Drew Donahue (14:36, 8:18), Ben Hughes (1:55, 8:37, 3:54, 14:54), Shef West (3:53, 14:55), Owen Johnson (14:55), and Ziggy Goddard (14:47, 8:26, 9:09 3k S). They are also a squad that tends to have difficulty staying healthy and relying on just 5 guys can be a dangerous game. I hesitate to rank this team too low based on a history of injury because injuries are, by nature, spontaneous, and I don’t think they should significantly lower a squads ranking so I’m going to assume the Panthers stay healthy in the fall. If they do, I think they easily qualify for the national meet.

Mid-Summer Mideast Rankings:
Amherst (Q)
RPI (q)
Middlebury (q)
Williams (q)

Stride Report trying to stoke fires and clicks not naming Wartburg as the #1.

They are certainly higher on the West than I am.

Rumor has it the two low sticks from WPI you mentioned, Reynolds and Bissoondial, are returning to WPI for another season as graduate students. That will make WPI much more competitive this year.

can someone give us the sparknotes from that stride report article? asking for all the broke people including myself. also reynolds cannot return to wpi (he ran xc in 2019) and hardart is not returning to MIT this fall.

Bissoondial might be returning but Reynolds has already exhausted is four years of eligibility. He ran as a fifth year (fourth year of NCAA eligibility) this year.

Stride Report Article Summary by ChatGPT. Based on this article, this is what the rankings could look like come August.

1. UW-La Crosse:
Despite losing key All-Americans, they have a deep and talented roster with multiple All-Americans on the track. The returning quartet of Joey Sullivan, Grant Matthai, Adam Loenser, and Aidan Matthai, along with Jayden Zywicki and Mason Brown, makes them strong contenders.

2. Wartburg:
They return six of their top-seven runners from last year, including breakout star Tyler Schermerhorn. Their top returners, Sam Schmitz, Jacob Green, and Jack Kinzer, alongside other consistent performers, Lance Sobaski and Shane Erb, give them a solid foundation.

3. Pomona-Pitzer:
As reigning champions, they face significant losses but retain Cameron Hatler and Jack Stein. Their developmental names could potentially fill in the gaps, keeping them competitive.

4. North Central:
With a solid returning core of Max Svienty and BJ Sorg, they have the experience to build around, although they face challenges with the loss of key scorers from last year.

5. Williams:
They lose top scorer John Lucey and key support scorer Nate Lentz, but their historical strength and remaining talent keep them in the conversation.

6. Carnegie Mellon:
They bring back a strong trio in Colin McLaughlin, Ryan Podnar, and Matthew Coyle. With good recruits and an experienced veteran in Aleksei Seletskiy, they have potential for a competitive season.

7. UW-Whitewater:
Christian Patzka and Gunner Schlender form a strong 1-2 punch. If their depth improves with returners like Dan Anderson and Chris Allen, they could be contenders for the podium.

8. Lynchburg:
They retain a strong core with Sam Llaneza, Chasen Hunt, and Tor Hotung-Davidsen. They could potentially be a top-five team with the right reinforcements.

9. George Fox:
With the return of key runners like Austin Gappa, Adam Petersen, and Alex Mills, and a strong recruiting class, they have the potential to improve significantly this season.

10. Johns Hopkins:
They have a solid core with Emmanuel Leblond and the return of Connor Oiler. With good recruits and a solid transfer, they could surprise many this season.

1. Valid ranking. Fairchild also returns

2. Valid ranking

3. Pomona seems too high. Losing 4 out of your top 5 and still getting 3rd is wild. If any of their top 5 are out it's game over, Kobett is a bit too shaky and seems to have peaked during XC 2022. Hatler should be AA but I'm not so sure any of his teammates will join him.

4. A tad too high on NCC, I'd put them 5th or 6th. I wasn't aware that Svienty was returning but this team suffered heavy losses from graduation and there's a big drop off in talent after Sorg. Maybe if Nofziger can translate his success to the grass they can move higher. A huge team that should be able to be very strong in the fall if enough guys put in the work.

5. Williams in 5th is outrageous. 4th last year and they lose their top 10 finisher + 14:24 5k guy + 1500/mile AA. DeNatale went backwards in track, Hardiman finished 1 race longer than 800m and there's shakiness about the whole Tuohy-Gaydos situation. Namiot should be in the front pack but without the depth they aren't getting 5th. Their good freshman class should help out a bit but ultimately they'll be stronger in a year or two.

6. CMU I could see moving up. McLaughlin and Coyle I could see in the top 20 at least. Maybe 4th.

7. Whitewater should be 3rd, no doubt. Patzka and Schlender will be the best 1-2 punch in the nation and they have a better 3-4-5 than many of the other teams mentioned here.

8. Valid ranking, maybe even higher for them.

9. Valid ranking

10. Valid ranking

It should be

tier 1:

UWL, Wartburg

tier 2:

Whitewater. Ostensible 3rd

tier 3:

CMU, RPI, North Central, Lynchburg

tier 4:

Williams, George Fox, Hopkins, Pomona, CMS, Amherst

tier 5/not sure, will get into nationals

St. Olaf, Emory, WashU, NYU, Geneseo, MIT, John Carroll, Calvin

Seems like the East Coast/NESCAC teams lose a lot from last year. Anybody have a regional power ranking?

I’ll copy and paste my NESCAC power rankings that I posted on the NESCAC thread and figure people here may also enjoy.

1. Amherst Mammoths
I absolutely agree that, on paper, this team has the strongest and most proven roster in the conference. Harrison Dow is a legitimate top 3/top 5 threat and has shown he can compete when it matters and beat proven guys (he was second in the conference 10k ahead of Alec Gironda who qualified for the national meet in that event in 2023). He just squeaked onto the second team all conference XC squad last year but I think with even a mediocre summer he’s in at least the top 10 this fall. Henry Dennen is a track demon but he’s yet to really show me anything on the grass. I’m curious whether we will see 14:19 Dennen in the fall, or 27:00 55th at conferences Dennen. Stan Craig and George Cahill are also really strong young guys that I would expect to improve significantly in the fall. Their 800 meter guys are likely to be a non-factor in cross according to history but if they can get some combination of Aidan Gemme or Thomas Stephens to step into the number 5 spot, I can really see this team returning to the dominance that Amherst had in the late 2010s and finally claim the NESCAC crown. Theo Dassin never really figured it out on the oval but boy was he a beast in cross. He’ll be missed by the mammoths for sure.
2. Williams Ephs
Of all the NESCAC, this squad probably suffered the most loses to graduation. The reigning XC champion, John Lucey, is gone. Nate Lentz (multiple time track all-American) is gone. Chris Ratcliffe (local 14:25 guy and a consistent top 5 guy for the Ephs last year) is gone. Jacob Lehmann Duke, who I don’t think ever made a nationals roster for the Ephs, is also gone. Those are all big loses. The only reason I’m putting Williams this high is because they’ve been here before, they are well-coached, they recruit well, and because Chuckie Namiot is the guy I’m picking to win the conference meet in the fall. He’s really come into his own. I think his 29:13 10k was top 15 D3 all time and he followed it up with his first all American honor at nationals. I’d expect him to be a cross all-American in the fall. Can he be the third straight Eph to win the individual title? Nikhil Denatale is the big question mark for the Ephs. He was a cross country All-American last fall and then ran 14:20 at the BU season opener but struggled to do anything notable all spring. Not sure what the deal is there. If he doesn’t return to his last fall form I can see Williams falling further on this list. This is the first year where these guys seem really beatable and that’s exciting from a variety standpoint. Grahm Tuohy Gaydos will not be running for Williams in the fall. Mark my words.
3. Middlebury Panthers
Losing Alec Gironda leaves big shoes to fill. But I was impressed with what I saw from their young trio of Ben Hughes, Shef West, and Owen Johnson, all of whom dipped under 15 minutes in the 5k out West in march. West must have gotten injured/sick for the remainder of the spring track season, and Middlebury’s success might actually be dependent on how healthy he is in the fall. Hughes is pretty proven on the grass. I like what I saw from him last fall. West also showed flashes but couldn’t show up at conferences last year. Ziggy Goddard is dangerous. I expect him to be up there with his brother in the lead pack at conferences but that’s reliant on him being healthy, which has proven a struggle so far for him collegiately. His NESCACs steeple race was incredibly, especially considering it was the second race of his outdoor campaign. When he’s healthy, I genuinely think he can run with the best of the best in the conference. I hear these guys are also getting Drew Donahue back next fall. People forget he was an indoor 3k nationals qualifier and a couple spots off XC All-American. Relying on just 5 guys is dangerous, but if Goddard, West, Hughes, Donahue, and Johnson can all stay healthy, I like these guys to surprise people and podium at championships.
4. Tufts Jumbos
Where the hell is Ivan Appleton? He ran 14:11 and 8:15 indoors and then didn’t touch an outdoor track. Rumor on the street was an injury that might linger over into the fall. The Jumbos’ success is heavily reliant on his health and right now, it’s not looking good, hence the #4 spot. These guys also lost Walter Wagude and Ryan Proulx who both struggled to perform on the track but were key pieces on nationals squads for Tufts the past two years. Not sure where Amokrane Aouchiche has gone. He was ROTY in 2022 and I expected him to be one of the next big names in the conference. That hasn’t really panned out. They have some promising young talent in Jonah Reisner, who missed their nationals squad in the fall but ran 14:45 outdoors, Alex Friedman, and Calvin Cummings (although Cummings also seems to be battling injury). Too many question marks for me to rank the Jumbos any higher than 4 and I realistically could see the 4-6 teams on this list being pretty interchangeable depending on who can stay healthy and who can show up on what day.
5. Bowdoin Polar Bears
If Chuckie Namiot is not going to win the conference, then Will Goddard is. He’s an absolute warrior on the grass and finally produced some impressive track results this spring. If he can put in a solid summer I seriously expect him to compete for the conference title and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s also a cross All-American. Behind him is where the question marks begin to arise. Seamus McDonough is a promising sophomore who ran 14:55 outdoors but struggled with consistency in the fall. Can Ben Bockmann take the next step his senior year and be an impact guy for the polar bears? Can Oliver Brandes (1:51) replicate his success in the 8k, or has he fully shifted focus to the 800m on the oval? Will Matthew Servin get healthy? I was high on this squad last year and they disappointed me. Kind of unfortunate timing for these guys; they lose Sam Angevine (14:46, 31:10) and Brooks Peters (3:52, 1:54) as soon as their younger guys are really starting to develop. Last year was this team’s chance to make a splash and they just couldn’t really put the pieces together. I suppose they do have home course advantage.
6. Bates Bobcats
This is another squad that got absolutely decimated by graduation. Goodbye Ned Farrington, Sam Kartonsis, and Victor Kerring. That’s their top 3. I liked what I saw from Ben Huston on the track and he really stepped up at regionals to put the final nail in Bowdoin’s team bid hopes in 2023. Andrew Mottur also had a good race that day in Hopkinton. He’ll be a senior but didn’t race in the spring and that worries me. I don’t expect Ross Tejada to contribute in the fall so they’re going to be relying on their younger weapons like Callahan Porter to make a splash. I’m interested to see if guys like Miles Logan and Aidan Rooney can contribute too. Logan was on the 4x8 conference championship team and just two years ago Rooney ran 3:52. I do think Feldman is taking this program in the right direction but I think they are the weakest of this second tier of teams.
7. Wesleyan Cardinals
We’re now reaching the third tier of teams where a couple of solid guys can separate you from the teams below that simply just lack depth. What Wesleyan lacks in a low stick, I think they make up for with the trio of Liam Calhoun (14:46), Alexander Kermath (14:59), Noah Mahoney (15:10, 31:18). People forget that Mahoney was a nationals qualifier individually in 2023. Even having a single individually qualifier on your squad can really help elevate the guys around him. There’s a big drop off after those three guys but this team is headed in the right direction and all the guys I listed are young. I’m sure this team would have loved to retain Aidan Ward (15:09) for another year. Although I think the gap between the Wesleyan Men and the Bobcats is fairly large.
8. Conn College Camels
Gone are the days of Jeffery Love and Matt Carter. And now gone are the days of Brendan Mellitt (30:25, 14:41, 8:30) and Ethan Bush (31:09, 14:45, 8:38). Someone commented on last years post that the Camels are like the Sith with the rule of two and I thought that comment was pretty funny and also pretty true. Christopher Davis was an underrated guy (15:13, 31:45) and sneaky contributor that also graduated. The good news though if you’re a Camels fan is that Matt Scardigno returns as a senior coming off a track season where he ran PRs of 31:02 and 14:33. He doesn’t have a tremendous XC track record but if he’s going to step up for the Camels, this has got to be the year. These guys are going to be relying on some young talent to step up but I do like Scardingo enough to warrant the #8 spot on this list.
9. Colby Mules
This fall from grace needs to be studied, although I think a study would only reveal some scandalous screenshots. It hurts to see a team that was so strong during the Tyler Morris era fall from grace so hard. Gordon Doore as a senior gives me a lot of hope for a bright spot in a dark tunnel. He qualified individually for nationals in the fall in a somewhat surprising fashion and then turned around in the spring to qualify for outdoor nationals in the 1500 in 3:46. That’s also impressive. If he qualifies again in the fall (and it won’t be with the team), he’ll have attended all four nationals during his time at Colby and that’s a really impressive feat. They’ve got some ok middle distance talent (Henry Reichle ran 3:57 as a freshman, Thomas Speltz ran 4:00 as a freshman), but consistency seems to be an issue. Chris Gould ended his season strong with a 15:14 at the Williams meet. Hopefully he can carry that momentum into the fall.
10. Trinity Bantams
Toby L’Esperance I’m not even going to try and spell the rest is a big loss. He was a multiple times XC qualifier and they are real shallow behind him. Strymish has shown flashes but struggles with consistency and has been unimpressive in XC. Hopefully he can figure that out this year. Trinity will need him to or they’re going to be really bad. I agree with the other spot that the only reason these guys aren’t dead last is because of him.
11. Hamilton Continentals
It’s about damn time these guys get booted from the conference. I can’t imagine anyone wants to make the trip down to them, and I can’t imagine they are going to like the 8 hour trip to Brunswick in the fall for conferences.

Can anyone do some research and see which teams are running at Pre-Nats on September 21st?

So here's what's interesting. McNichols on the 21st is a D1 hosted meet at LaVern Gibson that many solid teams are going to. But there is a separate D3 only prenats meet two weeks later, the same weekend as Paul Short & Blugold. Unlike in 2022, more credible D3 teams are attending the D1 meet compared to the traditional prenats.

Here are some known teams going to McNichols (yes I'm aware that a few of them suck):

Lynchburg

North Central

Washington & Lee

Calvin

Wartburg

WashU

UW La Crosse

Hope

Colorado College

Colby

Baldwin Wallace

Rose-Hulman

Oberlin

Denison

OG Cornell (Iowa)

Millikin

And prenats by comparison (again so, so many of these teams will NOT be even close to nationals...)

MIT

Otterbein

Loras

Central

UW Whitewater

UW Oshkosh

Haverford

Trine

WashU

Wesleyan

Babson

Caltech

Lewis & Clark

La Verne

Occidental

Ohio Northern

Manchester

Wabash

Rose-Hulman

Franklin

Augustana

Greenville

St. Vincent

Centre

DePauw

So obviously a weaker field that prenats weekend. Although, there are a decent amount of solid teams whose schedule is unknown. Mt. Union has attended Prenats the past two years which leads me to believe that there is a solid chance that they'll do so again, seeing as it's the third year in a row that the nationals course is just one state over and since they're a bubble team. The young U Chicago team is also within easy driving distance of the course, so perhaps they may attend. Not to mention that we don't have any schedules for the big players out west like CMS, Pomona and George Fox... so expect to see at least one of them at the LVG course come the big meet season.