From how far out does Jakob start the squeeze?

Mexican standoff?

If they both eyeball each other too long, then the whole field comes into it and a modern Fermin Cacho can win it. So, one of them makes a move to stretch the field, but is it too late? Do they just lead the parade into the final corner and get swamped coming out of it?

Jakob will counter with his game face. He’s never been the “underdog” in his entire career to date, and given that he holds all the cards in the 5000m, he’s going to win.

The problem is that Jakob’s fitness gap over the rest of the world isn’t as big as Tim’s was. Nobody besides Tim in 2019 was capable of running sub-3:30 (the only 3:28 and 3:29 Diamond League times were run by him alone). Just a few years later it seems everyone and their dog is able to run 3:30, partially thanks to the shoes and partially because the bar has been permanently raised. In 2019 “all” it took to win a global championship was the ability to solo a 3:29. Now that will just get you outkicked. And Jakob can’t solo a 3:27 in a championship race, which is what he’d need to do to run away with it.

It depends on what happens before. We are over due for one of the races where everyone looks at each other before running a 2:08. realisitcally if you start at 800 or 300 depends on the lead up. If Tim is going to take you through 1200 in 2:48, you sit. If you hit 800m in 2:02, probably time to drop a 54 and see what happens…

Kerr was able to win from 600 because he took the race in a vulnerable position--- Jakob had not fully taken control of the race, and Kerr going to the front and Kerr going to the front put Jakob in a disadvantageous position. I imagine that had Jakob taken the lead from the same point instead of Kerr, it would have been at least a slightly different race--Jakob would try to squeeze Kerr out, and Kerr would either have to kick around Jakob or he may have fallen off if the pace went too fast.

All that to say, the result of that race was not all because Jakob isn't fit and/or Kerr is stronger---a lot depends on who takes the lead and at what point in the race. So, I think Jakob could conceivably start a squeeze from 600 out and still win the olympics. But I would probably err to start as early as 800 out

Why start there? Why not have Jakob take the lead at 1000m out, like the WC race in Budapest, where Kerr tracked him down until the final curve, at which point, Jakob was probably thinking, unlike the WC in Eugene, he had Kerr where he wanted him, because Kerr would have to run the longer distance to go around.

Agreed. 700-800 at least.

It won't be like the last time. His competition is better. Kerr could likely go 3:28 now.

+1

Let´s see how Jakob improves the next 6 weeks. If everything goes OK I hope he will run a fast time (sub 3:27) in DL Monaco the12th of July.

If he gets such a fast time he will be able to win in various ways. I would prefer that he waited with front running to there is no more than 600m to the line. Hopefully one or more runners want to push the pace before then.

As argued many times: His kick/ gearshifting ability is greatly underrated

Yet another biased British patriot!

Yet another biased British patriot!

He started trying to put the squeeze on the competition with his comments to reporters, long ago.

Thank you. Just a note that as far as I have noticed the other championships all have good official splits, but the official splits from Budapest have many serious errors. (For example comparing the video of the race to the official splits, Kerr is a half stride behind with 400 to go, about .10, Laros is 3rd about 0.3 back, Nordas is about 7th and 0.8 back, whereas the the official splits have Kerr .72 behind at the bell, Laros in 11th and 2.42 seconds back, and Nordas about 1.2 back. Reynold Cheruiyot’s are entered for the wrong 100 meters or something, and he’s reported as last by a long way instead of mid pack.I think the splits for Jakob are approximately or maybe exactly right, ( last 800,400,200) except I think 300 to go and 100 to go are slightly wrong.

more nearly correct Budapest splits would be

Kerr 1:49.2, 53.4, 40.0, 26.55, 13.45

jakob 1:49.7, 53.8, 40.25, 26.8, 13.75

Have you run a track race before? The idea that Kerr was watching the videoboard in the midst of a 53 closing 400 is absurd.

J Ingebrigtsen is not a high 3:25.xx to low 3:26.xx 1500m runner.

At Olympic, no where for him to hide. J I's best chance, run sub-56 every lap and pray no one has a sub-40 final 300m in their legs.

If first 800m is split slower than 1:56, 1500m final, J Ingebrigtsen cannot win.

I was never a distance runner - but I had the same thought about Kerr watching the big screen in the closing 100:

Fermin Cacho wasn’t a nobody in 92. He was the second best runner in the world. He went on to run 3:28, got Silver in 93, 96 and 97.

You can lead a slow race and win it because you have position and energy. Look at Centro.

I’ve seen El G win a World Cup race in 3:40.

The risk is leading at a fast pace with an equal competitor sitting on your shoulder.

We’ve seen fast finals lately because we’ve seen fast people confident they can win that way.
Tim C pulled it off in 2019 because he was clearly better than the others. But in the 2021 Olympics, Jakob was up to the challenge. They split leading duties, made it fast and the better runner won.

Is Jakob superior enough to try this with Kerr?

I can see a traditional slow opening 800. Then maybe a game of chicken of who will push it and when.
They can still finish 1-2 in a 3:50 race.
Then everyone will call the Silver medalist stupid.

Tim C began racing in his now known 2019 strategy because he had a reputation in Kenya of weak racing, final 50m. Taoufik Makhloufi would have won, 2019 if 1200m were split 2:52.5 or slower. Tim C just tried it again, 2021.

European Championships:

Straight to the back at the gun. Second from last at 300 meters. Over less than 300 meters he moves all the way up.

Into the lead at about 550 meters.

I wrote above that I could see him in the front with as many as 700 meters to go. In this race he is in front even earlier than that.

Finished in 3:31.96 and was pulling away down the stretch.

Obviously the European Championships isn't the Olympics, but does this race strategy indicate anything about what he has learned, what he wants to avoid, how he wants to dictate a race, etc.?