Finally found the thread. Alas, a couple months late. As has become a summer tradition, I’m excited to offer my outlook on the situation and hope it sparks some good discussion. Here are my mid-summer power rankings based on losses, insider information that I leverage through my extensive network of NESCAC XC spies, and spring track developments. Admittedly, I am not super in-tune with recruiting so that’ll play less of a role in my analysis of each team. This will be an interesting year in the CAC. A lot of really great talent walked across various graduation stages in May and I’m curious to see where and how different guys will step up.
1. Amherst Mammoths
I absolutely agree that, on paper, this team has the strongest and most proven roster in the conference. Harrison Dow is a legitimate top 3/top 5 threat and has shown he can compete when it matters and beat proven guys (he was second in the conference 10k ahead of Alec Gironda who qualified for the national meet in that event in 2023). He just squeaked onto the second team all conference XC squad last year but I think with even a mediocre summer he’s in at least the top 10 this fall. Henry Dennen is a track demon but he’s yet to really show me anything on the grass. I’m curious whether we will see 14:19 Dennen in the fall, or 27:00 55th at conferences Dennen. Stan Craig and George Cahill are also really strong young guys that I would expect to improve significantly in the fall. Their 800 meter guys are likely to be a non-factor in cross according to history but if they can get some combination of Aidan Gemme or Thomas Stephens to step into the number 5 spot, I can really see this team returning to the dominance that Amherst had in the late 2010s and finally claim the NESCAC crown. Theo Dassin never really figured it out on the oval but boy was he a beast in cross. He’ll be missed by the mammoths for sure.
2. Williams Ephs
Of all the NESCAC, this squad probably suffered the most loses to graduation. The reigning XC champion, John Lucey, is gone. Nate Lentz (multiple time track all-American) is gone. Chris Ratcliffe (local 14:25 guy and a consistent top 5 guy for the Ephs last year) is gone. Jacob Lehmann Duke, who I don’t think ever made a nationals roster for the Ephs, is also gone. Those are all big loses. The only reason I’m putting Williams this high is because they’ve been here before, they are well-coached, they recruit well, and because Chuckie Namiot is the guy I’m picking to win the conference meet in the fall. He’s really come into his own. I think his 29:13 10k was top 15 D3 all time and he followed it up with his first all American honor at nationals. I’d expect him to be a cross all-American in the fall. Can he be the third straight Eph to win the individual title? Nikhil Denatale is the big question mark for the Ephs. He was a cross country All-American last fall and then ran 14:20 at the BU season opener but struggled to do anything notable all spring. Not sure what the deal is there. If he doesn’t return to his last fall form I can see Williams falling further on this list. This is the first year where these guys seem really beatable and that’s exciting from a variety standpoint. Grahm Tuohy Gaydos will not be running for Williams in the fall. Mark my words.
3. Middlebury Panthers
Losing Alec Gironda leaves big shoes to fill. But I was impressed with what I saw from their young trio of Ben Hughes, Shef West, and Owen Johnson, all of whom dipped under 15 minutes in the 5k out West in march. West must have gotten injured/sick for the remainder of the spring track season, and Middlebury’s success might actually be dependent on how healthy he is in the fall. Hughes is pretty proven on the grass. I like what I saw from him last fall. West also showed flashes but couldn’t show up at conferences last year. Ziggy Goddard is dangerous. I expect him to be up there with his brother in the lead pack at conferences but that’s reliant on him being healthy, which has proven a struggle so far for him collegiately. His NESCACs steeple race was incredibly, especially considering it was the second race of his outdoor campaign. When he’s healthy, I genuinely think he can run with the best of the best in the conference. I hear these guys are also getting Drew Donahue back next fall. People forget he was an indoor 3k nationals qualifier and a couple spots off XC All-American. Relying on just 5 guys is dangerous, but if Goddard, West, Hughes, Donahue, and Johnson can all stay healthy, I like these guys to surprise people and podium at championships.
4. Tufts Jumbos
Where the hell is Ivan Appleton? He ran 14:11 and 8:15 indoors and then didn’t touch an outdoor track. Rumor on the street was an injury that might linger over into the fall. The Jumbos’ success is heavily reliant on his health and right now, it’s not looking good, hence the #4 spot. These guys also lost Walter Wagude and Ryan Proulx who both struggled to perform on the track but were key pieces on nationals squads for Tufts the past two years. Not sure where Amokrane Aouchiche has gone. He was ROTY in 2022 and I expected him to be one of the next big names in the conference. That hasn’t really panned out. They have some promising young talent in Jonah Reisner, who missed their nationals squad in the fall but ran 14:45 outdoors, Alex Friedman, and Calvin Cummings (although Cummings also seems to be battling injury). Too many question marks for me to rank the Jumbos any higher than 4 and I realistically could see the 4-6 teams on this list being pretty interchangeable depending on who can stay healthy and who can show up on what day.
5. Bowdoin Polar Bears
If Chuckie Namiot is not going to win the conference, then Will Goddard is. He’s an absolute warrior on the grass and finally produced some impressive track results this spring. If he can put in a solid summer I seriously expect him to compete for the conference title and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s also a cross All-American. Behind him is where the question marks begin to arise. Seamus McDonough is a promising sophomore who ran 14:55 outdoors but struggled with consistency in the fall. Can Ben Bockmann take the next step his senior year and be an impact guy for the polar bears? Can Oliver Brandes (1:51) replicate his success in the 8k, or has he fully shifted focus to the 800m on the oval? Will Matthew Servin get healthy? I was high on this squad last year and they disappointed me. Kind of unfortunate timing for these guys; they lose Sam Angevine (14:46, 31:10) and Brooks Peters (3:52, 1:54) as soon as their younger guys are really starting to develop. Last year was this team’s chance to make a splash and they just couldn’t really put the pieces together. I suppose they do have home course advantage.
6. Bates Bobcats
This is another squad that got absolutely decimated by graduation. Goodbye Ned Farrington, Sam Kartonsis, and Victor Kerring. That’s their top 3. I liked what I saw from Ben Huston on the track and he really stepped up at regionals to put the final nail in Bowdoin’s team bid hopes in 2023. Andrew Mottur also had a good race that day in Hopkinton. He’ll be a senior but didn’t race in the spring and that worries me. I don’t expect Ross Tejada to contribute in the fall so they’re going to be relying on their younger weapons like Callahan Porter to make a splash. I’m interested to see if guys like Miles Logan and Aidan Rooney can contribute too. Logan was on the 4x8 conference championship team and just two years ago Rooney ran 3:52. I do think Feldman is taking this program in the right direction but I think they are the weakest of this second tier of teams.
7. Wesleyan Cardinals
We’re now reaching the third tier of teams where a couple of solid guys can separate you from the teams below that simply just lack depth. What Wesleyan lacks in a low stick, I think they make up for with the trio of Liam Calhoun (14:46), Alexander Kermath (14:59), Noah Mahoney (15:10, 31:18). People forget that Mahoney was a nationals qualifier individually in 2023. Even having a single individually qualifier on your squad can really help elevate the guys around him. There’s a big drop off after those three guys but this team is headed in the right direction and all the guys I listed are young. I’m sure this team would have loved to retain Aidan Ward (15:09) for another year. Although I think the gap between the Wesleyan Men and the Bobcats is fairly large.
8. Conn College Camels
Gone are the days of Jeffery Love and Matt Carter. And now gone are the days of Brendan Mellitt (30:25, 14:41, 8:30) and Ethan Bush (31:09, 14:45, 8:38). Someone commented on last years post that the Camels are like the Sith with the rule of two and I thought that comment was pretty funny and also pretty true. Christopher Davis was an underrated guy (15:13, 31:45) and sneaky contributor that also graduated. The good news though if you’re a Camels fan is that Matt Scardigno returns as a senior coming off a track season where he ran PRs of 31:02 and 14:33. He doesn’t have a tremendous XC track record but if he’s going to step up for the Camels, this has got to be the year. These guys are going to be relying on some young talent to step up but I do like Scardingo enough to warrant the #8 spot on this list.
9. Colby Mules
This fall from grace needs to be studied, although I think a study would only reveal some scandalous screenshots. It hurts to see a team that was so strong during the Tyler Morris era fall from grace so hard. Gordon Doore as a senior gives me a lot of hope for a bright spot in a dark tunnel. He qualified individually for nationals in the fall in a somewhat surprising fashion and then turned around in the spring to qualify for outdoor nationals in the 1500 in 3:46. That’s also impressive. If he qualifies again in the fall (and it won’t be with the team), he’ll have attended all four nationals during his time at Colby and that’s a really impressive feat. They’ve got some ok middle distance talent (Henry Reichle ran 3:57 as a freshman, Thomas Speltz ran 4:00 as a freshman), but consistency seems to be an issue. Chris Gould ended his season strong with a 15:14 at the Williams meet. Hopefully he can carry that momentum into the fall.
10. Trinity Bantams
Toby L’Esperance I’m not even going to try and spell the rest is a big loss. He was a multiple times XC qualifier and they are real shallow behind him. Strymish has shown flashes but struggles with consistency and has been unimpressive in XC. Hopefully he can figure that out this year. Trinity will need him to or they’re going to be really bad. I agree with the other spot that the only reason these guys aren’t dead last is because of him.
11. Hamilton Continentals
It’s about damn time these guys get booted from the conference. I can’t imagine anyone wants to make the trip down to them, and I can’t imagine they are going to like the 8 hour trip to Brunswick in the fall for conferences.