Josh Kerr 1:45.94 800m @ Oregon Relays

The 800 for real runners was at the DL. HIs time would have been good for 10th place.

But nothing wrong with dunking on the competition to make yourself feel good.

The 8:00.67 2-mile is, I think, equivalent to about 7:26-flat. World Athletics points tables say 7:26.18. It’s 7:28.01 pace FWIW. And there’s no denying that 1:45.94 is close to 1:46, and that crediting him with 1:44.0/1:44.2, while not unreasonable, for now is theoretical.

Obviously there’s no assurance he’ll ever be in 1:44-low / 7:25 shape simultaneously, and if you look at the other guys near the top of the 1500 all-time list, a lot of them were capable of distinctly faster in one event or the other. Kiprop ran 1:43-low multiple times and was probably capable of 1:42.xx if it were a greater focus; Cheruiyot ran 1:43.11 in limited tries; El Guerrouj ran 7:23.09 with very shoddy pacing in his one 3k record attempt (may truly have been good for 7:20); when Morceli ran 7:25.11 it smashed the WR by 3.85 seconds, and he ran 1:44.89 19 days later; of course Jakob ran 7:54.11 and 3:27.14 last year.

I can see Kerr running under 3:28 but it’s a long way from 3:27.9 to 3:25.9. I’m pretty confident he’ll never come within a second of the WR.

Basically, 1:45.94 + 8:00.67 is great and bodes well for a super fast 1500 (British record for sure), but if it’s “unprecedented,” it’s only by meaningless technicalities.

It definitely sounds like you’re throwing shade on Kerr. You’re criticizing him for running an April season-opener near his home base where he didn’t in fact have the fastest 800 PB in the field. Since when was there anything remotely wrong with that.

Probably Yeah. But we should not forget that handsome Jakob has a ridiculous engine. On his day he can run 3:26.xx. this will be a fun summer

Yes, basically no US-based distance runners went to Xiamen besides Wiley. Kerr is racing at Pre. If you want to criticize him for seemingly not jumping into a pretty great 1500/5000 at LA Grand Prix like Hoare, Nuguse, Hocker, Teare, Kessler (probably?) that's fine, but he is doing the big domestic race in the Bowerman Mile. He doesn't race a whole lot and we should pretty much come to terms with that. There's no shame in a low-key opener.

I know we love to hate on Jerry (myself included) for taking it way too far, but there is a definitive advantage to a lighter racing schedule. Josh has seemed to find a pretty good balance the last few years; he races indoors, he races multiple events, and he's certainly not afraid to race his rivals, but he always shows up at championships in a big way and he never sacrifices his recovery time when he needs it.

Not to mention that, yes, there is a psychological advantage to getting an early season win. It's not like he completely dodged the competition, he showed up to a quality pro meet with a number of 800 specialists with PRs in the same range as his, and he won it handily. Seeing as how there is evidence that you literally get more out of training when you're happier and less stressed, I think it was a great move for him and puts him in a great spot headed into a busy summer.

I watched it - not very impressive although no way to know his training load. He was using it as a training race probably.

but, the point is, jakob is not super speedy. he obviously lacks a gear in overdrive mode. thats proven. doubt it if he can do 1.45.

he is more like endurance speedy. so if kerr n weightman) can store that 800m speed its just a matter for him to hang on and then put in overdirve with 150 m to go. i def think jake n josh will collaborate to take down jakob. prolly one will throw down the hammer with 250-300 m left and one will hang on behind - ready to punch down another gear with 100-150 m or so to go...questions?

You are assuming Wightman makes the team, which is anything but a lock. Mills is in better shape. Gourley we will have to see, but he is a tough racer in British Nationals always. There are a bunch of guys who can spring the upset if Jake is a little bit off. Not to mention the next part of being fit enough to be up that far in the final.

ofc.

i on my part think that someone yared, nordås or some kenyan or outside will surprise and upset the J trio. At this time I wud bet on jakob as nr 1. and nuguse as nr 2. and one unknown as nr 3. it still remains to be seen if kerr is a one season hit (outdoor + indoor) or if he can be a consistent podium maker conseq years. he used to be a 3-6th guy. good but still not labelled as great in my book. many guys do the (PR)-times he has done. the games on my fellow LRC folks

As I've been saying, Jakob awakened the monster in Kerr. I thank Jakob for this and the impact he's having on this sport. And based on Jakob falling for Kerr's pysch game, he will continue to not respect his competition and it will unnecessarily add a tremendous amount of pressure on himself for Paris. And Kerr feels he has a lot to prove still and he's a WR holder on a roll now. It proved to be a smart move to dodge Jakob after the WC and ride his accomplishment into an amazing indoor season. Jakob is going to have to get very lucky in an Olympic final against a speedy and hungry Kerr. Jakob's best hope is for Kerr to get wrapped up in surge tactics against the others as they battle to sit on his shoulder until the final turn.

Kerr has spent these years upping his fitness and improving his tactics. He's a WC now against the best and has elevated his game to another level. It's also clear his mental game is better than Jakob's and his coach knows what he's doing. I can't bet on Jakob right now because he was injured and doesn't seem to have learned from his experience thinking last summer was a fluke. Even if Jakob breaks the WR before the games I'm not confident in his ability to be in form to solo a 3:28 in a stacked final after rounds in the summer heat. His stock has gone down.

I think this is actually giving Jakob too much credit. There are just too many hungry mid-D guys right now who saw the vulnerability in Jakob and believe they can beat him. Even a dude like Beamish probably "knows" he can outkick Jakob. With the exception of Kerr now they have nothing to lose and have no reason to go for just a medal. As for the east Africans, nobody is scared of them anymore either.

thanx for having this disc w me!

as a swede i will always support my norwegian bros. its refreshing to see them take the blue ribbon of running to the next level. it started with gunder hägg n arne andersson n now jakob is taking over.

he has def work to do but as a whole i just think jakob is a much stronger athlete.

I think it's very close to 7:25.0. And 1:45.94 in April while running away from the field with 300 to go for me is a very strong indication that he also has much more to show in this event too.

If I'm right to give him an 800m potential very close to 1:44.0 later in the season, than his combination of 800 speed and 3k/2M strength would be unique (maybe Morceli could have run faster in '94 in the 800 with more tries and in his best season '95 he didn't raced over 800).

Sub 3:28 seems to be an almost certainty for me (baring injuries..). But I expect something around 3:27.0.

You arbitrarily cut 1 second from Kerr’s 3k and 2 seconds from his 800, then assumed he would be capable of both of these hypothetical performances at the same time in order to argue that he will be in shape to run 3:27.0 lol

As far as I know Narve he is not a guy who is lying. But sure everyone could be wrong about themselves. You say that you can't convince me, og what, I can't convince you either. What does that tell? Nothing. And even his slow start speed is "self-invented". How do you know? But between you and me and a lamp post. He is working on improving. And last time Jakob ran 800 was in june - 22: 1:47.22.

I haven't cut a second from his 3k and I haven't cut 2 seconds from his 800.

Gebrselassie

7:25.09 + 8:01.08

He has really maxed out his 3k time with various 7:25 - 7:26 performances, in the 2 Miles he also probably was close with 3 8:01 performances.

The 1.08 conversion gives 7:25.06. For me 8:00.67 is worth probably 7:25.0.

Kerr's 800m PB is 1:45.35, from 2019. Do you think a 1:45.94 in April is his maximum for this season?

Hope he puts it together, more aerobic work would probably help. 600 really is his perfect distance race.