5k and 10k on the track are almost the same event aerobically, forget the various studies, but something like 95% and 97% aerobic respectfully. Plus, if the race waits till the last mile to really get cooking and comes down to a sub 4 mile, they're basically the same event aeobically. While Nico san surely run a great time in the 1500m, say 3:33-3:30 right now, kicking home in a 1:52 with a 25 sec last 200m is a different ballgame. His sub 27 10k puts him on the map to compete in this year's Olympic final. It is unlikely he could even make the US team in the 1500m, and he'd struggle to make the final at the Olympics. Definitely a 5k/10k track guy, who has the potential to contend for global medals.
My guess is that he's going to be similar to Kejelcha in the way that he can throw down really quick times all the way down to the mile, but will be more competitive in distances from the 5k to the 10k.
Nico didn’t do so hot at XC, but then right after that he runs that sick double at BU on the same fitness
Smith says his is now strong enough to access his speed at the end of races, we got to see that at BU but not in XC.
kind of feels like that means he is just better at 5k, right? Since then he has obviously run crazy fast times at the mile and the 10k, so the middle ground seems like the right answer me.
really my biggest question right now is what could he do in the 1500 or mile. Those Montana State guys a few years ago all ran about as fast as the altitude conversions said they would.
Nico didn’t do so hot at XC, but then right after that he runs that sick double at BU on the same fitness
Smith says his is now strong enough to access his speed at the end of races, we got to see that at BU but not in XC.
kind of feels like that means he is just better at 5k, right? Since then he has obviously run crazy fast times at the mile and the 10k, so the middle ground seems like the right answer me.
really my biggest question right now is what could he do in the 1500 or mile. Those Montana State guys a few years ago all ran about as fast as the altitude conversions said they would.
I think it has to be seen if he's better right now in the 5k or 10k.
Both, the 12:57 and the 26:52 were huge negative splits but of course the race set up in each race was fantastic for him.
I definitely see his potential right now in the 3:32 - 7:29 - 12:52 - 26:45 range. Scary to think if he is able to step it up one more time.
Diego Estrada ran 13:16 at NAU and around 1:01 HM then or soon after. Ryan Hall ran 13:16 before 59:43 AR. Nico would stand a very good shot at sub-60 and the record right now with 12:57/26:52--and he'd get the benefit of the really bouncy road shoes, which Hall, Ritz, and Rupp didn't have when they ran 60 and under.
+ 1
Andreas Almgren - who was beaten narrowly by Nico in the 10,000m - has run low 59 in the HM this year.
You'd think he's guaranteed to win anything he races in the NCAA, but he was only 6th in XC. I haven't heard anyone say he was sick or anything, but he crushed 7:37/13:22 a week later. Smith said a big part of Nico's new kick was having more strength, which would make you think he'd have done better in XC. He undoubtedly made a big jump in fitness as evidenced by 12:57/26:52, but it's weird how that didn't seem to translate to XC. Maybe just a bad day?
Also, Samuel just ran 26:53. I have no clue how he was so far back at NCAAs, but I expect him to be a real contender at 5k/10k/XC since he's a freshman right now. Either he'll be the next Cheserek, or there's gonna be NCAA guys capable of beating a 26:53 guy.
He was runner up just the year before was he not? If I remember right I think it was less than a second or just a hair over it between him and Hicks
My guess is that he's going to be similar to Kejelcha in the way that he can throw down really quick times all the way down to the mile, but will be more competitive in distances from the 5k to the 10k.
Oh I've actually been wondering recently if Kejelcha should give the 1500 a shot. Nuguse took shots at his indoor mile record the year he ran 3:43 and the year after, and just missed them both times. He lost by .01 to Jakob in 7:23 at the Pre Classic, and Jakob was in WR shape in the mile and the 3k that weekend. It's true that he still lost to Jakob on the 2nd day of his double, but it's also true that he was anticipating racing a 5k until right before the race. I'm a staunch defender of WA changing it from a 5k to a 3k for Jakob, even though Kejelcha spoke out against it because he was planning for a 5k (iirc). Just saying Kejelcha might be able to go faster than 7:23, and if he can do that, I think he can run at least 3:28-29.
All the 1500s are run fast from the gun now. 10 years ago, they were mid 3:30s races. Mo Farah is remembered for winning 5k/10ks with a big kick, and people tend to forget he ran 3:28. The reigning 1500m/3000m world champ has his sights on that record still. Farah wasn't good enough to dominate the 1500 like the 5k/10k, but today, if you can run a 3:29 after rounds, you have a good shot to win.
Nico's best shot at an Olympic team is definitely the 10k this year, but I'd love to see him spend an indoor season working on his mile like Rupp did when he ran 3:50. In an era where 1500m guys are winning the 5k by racing it like a 1500, and where 1500m races are all run under 3:30, Nico might be way more competitive in the 1500 than Rupp could've hoped for.
My guess is that he's going to be similar to Kejelcha in the way that he can throw down really quick times all the way down to the mile, but will be more competitive in distances from the 5k to the 10k.
Oh I've actually been wondering recently if Kejelcha should give the 1500 a shot. Nuguse took shots at his indoor mile record the year he ran 3:43 and the year after, and just missed them both times. He lost by .01 to Jakob in 7:23 at the Pre Classic, and Jakob was in WR shape in the mile and the 3k that weekend. It's true that he still lost to Jakob on the 2nd day of his double, but it's also true that he was anticipating racing a 5k until right before the race. I'm a staunch defender of WA changing it from a 5k to a 3k for Jakob, even though Kejelcha spoke out against it because he was planning for a 5k (iirc). Just saying Kejelcha might be able to go faster than 7:23, and if he can do that, I think he can run at least 3:28-29.
All the 1500s are run fast from the gun now. 10 years ago, they were mid 3:30s races. Mo Farah is remembered for winning 5k/10ks with a big kick, and people tend to forget he ran 3:28. The reigning 1500m/3000m world champ has his sights on that record still. Farah wasn't good enough to dominate the 1500 like the 5k/10k, but today, if you can run a 3:29 after rounds, you have a good shot to win.
Nico's best shot at an Olympic team is definitely the 10k this year, but I'd love to see him spend an indoor season working on his mile like Rupp did when he ran 3:50. In an era where 1500m guys are winning the 5k by racing it like a 1500, and where 1500m races are all run under 3:30, Nico might be way more competitive in the 1500 than Rupp could've hoped for.
Kejelcha tried the mile in 2019 after his world record indoors, he got smoked at Pre Classic running 3:58 and went back to longer distances. Since then he has run 3:32 in 2020 and 3:37 in 2022.
He has 2 indoor 3k wins and a 10k silver medal as well as a 7:23 3k, 12:41 5k and a 57:41 half marathon so his talents are best served at longer distance. The issue may be peaking as those PB came in the same season as a disappointing 5th at world champs 5k.