Early 2024 NY Cross Country predictions?

Can Izzie Sullivan from FM get back to NXN? She was an all-American in 2022.

If, during the season, it doesn’t look like she has a chance to go to NXN, this will be the first time that Aris doesn’t bring any of his teams or individuals to NXR.

When I was in HS in NY McDougal, dalpaiz meindl , fennel where among the top in the state , god it's been along time

Northport is another darkhorse girls team. 4th at NXR and they return everyone

Boys team predictions
1. Monroe Woodbury
2. Saratoga Springs
3. Ithaca
4. North Rockland
5. Auburn

who are Auburn and North Rockland 3 Tier 1s and what is makes one a tier one their ranking in NY? Also toga is strong up front with the 3 sub 9:20 guys do they have the 4 and 5 also?

Auburn’s top 3 will be Gasper (9:25), Ferrin (9:29), and Maher (9:39). All of them were top 3 for XC last year (and helped them make NXN) and will all be back.
Their 4&5 is what might hurt them but both are sub-5s (Ringwood and Wilbur). No depth at all beyond that.

Toga’s #4-6 returners are Kerroum (9:52), Nix (10:00), and B Pasek (10:13 in December as a freshman)

North Rockland’s top 2 will be Tuohy (9:13), Chery (9:13). They also have McCarron (9:51 indoors as a freshman).
And then they have 4 other returners 4:3x (D Piccone, Affoumani, T Piccone, Hirsch). Also another freshman (Perez Nieves) who was in their top 7.

Northport also has incoming soph F. Wickard (4:45o 1500 / 10:35i 3000) but she does soccer in the fall. If she somehow does XC , Northport could make some waves

Who does Ithaca bring back?

They only had 1 senior in the NXR championship race.

They return:

Hubisz (12) (won the 3200 indoor state meet in 9:01 / 15:57 XC 5k)

Hilker (12) (9:41 indoor / 15:46 XC 5k)

A Nadasdy (11) (10:02 outdoor / 16:47 XC 5k)

Z Nadasdy (11) (10:07 indoor / 4:31 outdoor / 16:47 XC 5k)

Shaw (12) (16:22 5k during XC 2023 (16:09 during XC 2022), 4:25 mile)

Boscia (10) (17:04 5k, and ran at the XC state meet and NXR championship race. All that as a freshman)

Smith (10) (10:11 outdoor as a freshman. The only one in this group who did not run at the state meet / NXR)

Last fall, all these people had big 5K PRs at Baldwinsville. Ithaca actually beat Auburn in that race

This could be the first time in forever that the Saratoga girls team won’t have a front runner like they used to have such as Chmiel, Kurto, and Bush.

We will know about Saratoga in a month, after the Firecracker 4-miler.

With Saratoga’s 4-5 still being a little up the air I can understand why people might be putting them behind MW, but that top 3 feels like it’s being overlooked if that’s even possible for such high caliber runners. Maybe a more knowledgeable historian can correct me but I’m not aware of any NY team that’s ever returned 3 guys with as strong 3200 times as Saratoga has.

Going to be really interesting to see how that translates in XC.

Northport 2013 should've been close but Jack McGowan didn't get good until his senior year. FM certainly returned some better teams in the past but they were lucky if they had 3 guys even run the 3200 outdoors, let alone fast. 2014 FM returned 9:04, 9:35, 9:55 for returners and their top 3 in XC that fall was 199, 194, 194.

I expect Saratoga to be quite good, because a 9:05 guy can only run so slow in XC, although I'm not sure I'm willing to say they'll be nationally competitive just yet. Have to see how the summer goes to decide.

Saratoga’s 4-6 are pretty legit too.

9:52

10:00

10:13 (Indoors in December as a freshman).

With that and a solid top 3, this should be enough to qualify for NXN, but there’s no telling how they will do at nationals

Zariel Macchia committed to BYU

Saratoga firecracker 4-mile results

Nothing earth-shattering or game-changing there. Nice run by BH alum Tyler Berg, though (18:58).