Could you beat a random american in a 1 mile race with your LIFE on the line?

I'm in 4:3x shape right now, this would be a very easy yes. 1 million isn't so much money, but it would put me on track to buy a house, which I probably won't be able to do as long as my parents are alive. And the odds of me losing are so remote that it's functionally the same as the chance of getting hit by a car on a random day, or getting stabbed in a mugging, etc.

Last year, in Colorado, 580 kids broke 5 for the 1600. In Wyoming, it was about 100. The average state probably has closer to 300-400. With fifty states, that means 6,000-ish hs kids break 5. Maybe that's closer to 8,000.

But those are their PRs. In January, most HS kids who will break 5 might struggle to run sub-5:20. On an average day, probably 3-4000 hs kids are capable of running sub-5. Add to that 1000 college athletes, 500 pros, and 6000-8000 hard-working hobby joggers, and that sounds about right to me.

But even if I'm off by x2 or x3 on that calculation, you're still more likely to die from daily commuting than doing this exercise.

Don’t need a million dollars waiting for me. If some random American is chasing me or trying to get to someone I care about, I will get there first. I may not be in the shape I once was but I remember how to hurt and I could dip into that pain locker with those stakes on the line.

Got that wrong. The HS number is probably closer to 15k. So maybe this is more like 25k total in the US. Either way, still safer than driving!

Running UberNerd and NAUSUX, your quick and dirty calculation of risk is the right approach. The people who said "I'm faster than the average American, so I'll take that bet" are missing the point. Probably every one of us on this board is faster than the average American. We're runners - that's why we're here. The salient question is how likely are you to lose, and are you willing to accept those odds weighed against the benefit of winning?

The fact that the expected value is very high - nearly $1M - is only part of the equation. If somebody offered you a coin flip where you receive $1B if you win and death if you lose, the expected value is really high: $500M. But the high chance of losing and the dire consequences of losing would be unacceptable for most people.

In my case, I have 4 children to raise and am very death-averse, even more so than most people. Even my savings and the life insurance benefits my family would receive are not a substitute for an actual father. And $1M just isn't that much money. If the odds of losing are 1 in 15,000, I wouldn't take that bet.

I would do it. Sit and kick baby. If you want to beat me, you'll have to BLEED (aka just run under maybe 4:40)

there are way more people who run under 5

$1 million is like a quarter of a house where I live

Of course not. Hardly anyone would. Even if you are a 4 minute miler, you might get a cramp or trip or be up against a 3:59 miler or something.

A million dollars might be life changing (it isn't to everyone), but not to the degree that dying is life changing.

First off, I'd say this is just a fun/stupid LRC hypothetical, so no harm of course. But I will say there's A LOT of people saying they'd do this that when it came down to it, would chicken out (also known as make the smart decision).

Meaning, you're standing on the track ready to run the mile. There's a table with $1M in cash sitting there, also a loaded 9mm with an executioner ready to fire if need be. Your friends and family are there ready to watch you either collect the money, or take a one tap to the back of the head with your frontal lobe scattered across the track.

You have one last chance to back out, not risk something stupid like a cramp or freak injury before your opponent is revealed and the race starts. Your mom is staring at you thinking this whole thing is ridiculous and can't believe she might see her child's life ended over something so stupid and trivial.

The RD asks one more time, do you want to do this?

All but one of you, who probably actually does need professional mental help, backs out because you're not an idiot.

Are you at least allowed to look at the person you are matched up against before you decide whether or not to race them? If it is a young lean dude then I wouldn't even take the chance. But just about anybody else I'd take the challenge.

I ran a 4:00.x a couple of weeks ago. So that obviously eliminates 50% of the population, and there are only ~150 other college age males faster than me. Then throw in ~500 (as a very, very high estimate) pros

If I could see the person I'd be racing against just before the gun goes off and I'd have a chance to pull out then, then yes.

$1 million earned means I could basically expect 50K-70K in interest income/year for the rest of my life. So basically I could be middle class without ever having to work.

On the other hand, death = infinite negative utility.

For this gamble to make sense, I'd have to be like sure I'd win at like a million to one odds. I value my life at a trillion dollars, it seems. (I think my odds of winning are more like 1000 to 1.)

There are certainly worse ways to go than racing a world class runner.

I still wouldn't choose it. Selection bias. Unless there's a clause forcing everyone to do it, the only ones electing to do it would think they have a high probably to win it.

Plus what are the theoretical rules? does someone pull you into it immediately? who choose the random route? what if you get chosen a second time the second you finish your first mile?

The kind of person taking such a bet would reflect how desperate and miserable their lives are.

How many do you think? The guys guessing more like 25k are probably right. I admit to not googling "how many high schools are in the US" before posting.

Imagine showing up to the race and you look across the track and see Yared Naguse warming up

Look up the actuarial tables for the average American vs the average American millionaire, then get back to me on what "the smart decision" is.