Firstly, the tests are incredibly sensitive in this day and age. If you’ve taken something prohibited, what is its half life? How successfully have you flushed your system? I have personally seen anti doping test results that detected banned substances in the order of inside of ten parts per billion. Furthermore, those samples are being stored for future analysis.
Secondly, the whereabouts system is rightfully onerous. Planning an hour every day where you can be found can sound simple with an unvaried schedule, and it can be for those who do exactly the same routine day in and day out. But these top athletes go to training camps, they go to competitions, they get delayed and miss flight connections. And they also may try to have some semblance of sociality outside of being an athlete. There was an accident on the motorway that delayed your journey home? You had better report it immediately, and hope your mobile is in good working order to do so. This is all part of a system in which you are very much guilty until proven innocent.
Also important is the fact that the anti doping authorities themselves aren’t complete fools (the odd fool of an anti doping control officer not withstanding). If you’ve missed a test, for whatever reason, you had better believe that you’ll be flagged for additional testing. They have the right to test you every single day should they choose. What I would suppose what happened in the case of Katir is that he was suspicious to begin with and missed one test and then a second. Thus, his out of competition testing frequency soared. And again, a sophisticated cheat such as Katir is well aware what he’s doing. I am certain that he was taking his enhancers straight after his daily availability window ended, and then would work to overhydrate himself, without the use of detectable diuretics, to flush his system as much as possible before his availability window would open up the following day. I would not be surprised if he had some self testing of some sort, which would let him know the likelihood of returning an adverse result, and if he were glowing as it’s known, ahead of his testing window, and if the tester happened to arrive, he would be quiet as a mouse and simply take the missed test, rather than risk a positive result. But after so many times, the authorities simply have more chances to catch you that third time when you’d rather accept the missed test and attempt to save face rather than risking a longer sanction.
Furthermore, the ABP is a real tool in catching longitudinal variations in biochemistry that might escape these snap shot tests. This has been instrumental in clamping down on long term cheating. It’s not to say that any one individual test can be beaten, even if that is becoming significantly more difficult, but rather that the successive weight of consistent and targeting testing is substantially more difficult to escape if you are taking something illicit.