Very impressive but I don’t think he can run 3:50.
as a former fast altitude runner, my sea level times never matched the conversion especially at the short distances.
1:55-1:55 is a whole different fitness than 2:00-59-58
The conversions are more accurate for a sea level runner coming up to altitude than it is for athletes living at altitude and racing at altitude. ...and it certainly is not accurate for predicting what altitude living athletes would run at sea level!
...this is why the top 18 times for indoor season distance events are dubious...as are the conversations for funky tracks! For instance, every year a bunch of d2 runners will qualify at Colorado School of Mines on their 190 meter track. Conversion for altitude plus conversion for track = butt load of d2 Colorado based athletes qualify. ...and then lose at sea level nationals! Same at CU and NAU. Take em to sea level and those conversions never pan out!
Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker ran 3:50 at sea level in college....and would've run 3:57 in Flagstaff. Nico Young did not run 3:50 equivalent regardless of NCAA conversion voodoo
Going the other way is brutal. During Jim Ryun’s first day at altitude, he ran a mile to test the waters and stopped after 2 laps at 4:30 pace.
Awesome result for Nico! Not sure I would give as much weight to the conversion chart though. Similarly to us lessening those conversions to kenyan competitions at altitude, Nico has been at altitude for a few years and most likely is a little more accustomed to it
Every year somebody comes around and says the conversion chart isn’t real and then every year people run the converted times at sea level and everyone is baffled. You clearly don’t understand how altitude works. Your VO2max is literally ~10% lower at 7000 feet than sea level.
Awesome result for Nico! Not sure I would give as much weight to the conversion chart though. Similarly to us lessening those conversions to kenyan competitions at altitude, Nico has been at altitude for a few years and most likely is a little more accustomed to it
Every year somebody comes around and says the conversion chart isn’t real and then every year people run the converted times at sea level and everyone is baffled. You clearly don’t understand how altitude works. Your VO2max is literally ~10% lower at 7000 feet than sea level.
No no no. Have you never heard of adaptation? When Wanjiru ran 2:06 in the heat in Beijing it doesn’t mean he could run 2:02. We just don’t know. But we do know that adaptation offers mitigation against the stressor, so Nico’s 3:57 is worth faster than a 3:57 but probably only 2-3 seconds.
Do these “conversations” ever pan out? Every year some dude in the mountains runs 3:5x and then gets dusted at natty’s. Imma call it now, Nico ain’t breaking 3:54 this year.
He ran 4:02.69 in the dome in 2022 and ran 3:56.00 the same season. The same improvement would be right around the current NCAA record
Given he has track speed but no kick and also has a strong aerobic engine, should he consider the Steeplechase? He already has a faster flat 3K than most American steeple men and the lack of kick doesn't matter as much in that event. Would his funky form prevent hood hurdling?
I’ve been seeing him as the next Rupp. Ran fast times in high school, got gradually better in college but never seemed to have the kick to be able to win a championship, kept working on his craft and his speed, and eventually put it all together.
Awesome result for Nico! Not sure I would give as much weight to the conversion chart though. Similarly to us lessening those conversions to kenyan competitions at altitude, Nico has been at altitude for a few years and most likely is a little more accustomed to it
There has to be some truth to this. Abel Kipsang ran 3:31.01 in Nairobi in 2022 and he hasn’t run 3:25.xx or whatever it was supposed to convert to.
Yes Nairobi is about 5800’, and the 1500 “conversion” seems to be 2 seconds max for Kenyans in a 1500. This is more like 7000’ so 3-4 seconds for an altitude-adjusted athlete? Still a great run by Nico, sub-13 should be coming soon.
I’ve been seeing him as the next Rupp. Ran fast times in high school, got gradually better in college but never seemed to have the kick to be able to win a championship, kept working on his craft and his speed, and eventually put it all together.
I feel like I actually made this exact same comparison right after he ran that double. It really felt like a "He didn't have a kick, until he did" moment, and Rupp is the prime example of that. Nico looks to have leveled up on the track this year. He's been close to winning before, but he has 13:03/13:06 competition, so whoever wins this year is gonna need to be in sub 13 shape.
I think one thing to consider here is the actual muscle mechanics of running 57s laps vs 59s. If a 145 800 guy runs a 357 at altitude I think there is better chance they can run can actually run 350 vs young. That being said I think the chances he could run close to 730 in the 3k right now are pretty high.
No it converts to 49xx and he did it after a mile so he is a legitimate sub 49 runner fresh.
What about Lee Evan? His WR at Mexico City was over a second faster than he ever ran at sea level. The times he was within a second, were also at altitude. Larry James also ran a big PR at the Olympics and Ralph Doubell tied the 800m WR. Less air resistance at altitude is a benefit at the shorter distances.
I don't have the knowledge about Ralph Doubell to talk about him specifically, but with the 800 being pretty close to 50/50 (or is it 60/40?) aerobic/anaerobic I wouldn't want to trade the extra oxygen for less air resistance. Then again, I was an aerobic guy coming down, not a speed guy going up (i.e. altitude would, I think, hurt an aerobic 800 guy's ability proportionately more than altitude would hurt an 800 guy's ability because the aerobic ability is a higher percentage of overall ability for an aerobic guy--pure speculation, and I could have it exactly backwards!).
Based on the BU result a couple months ago and now this, it’s fair to say Nico is due for another big break. The most obvious is a title. I do hope he can manage to snag at least one.
I do think people are right the 3:48 conversion is pretty generous. Something tells me Nico is more like a 3:52 guy. Still, I wonder how competitive he might be at the trials 5000 this summer?
Every year somebody comes around and says the conversion chart isn’t real and then every year people run the converted times at sea level and everyone is baffled. You clearly don’t understand how altitude works. Your VO2max is literally ~10% lower at 7000 feet than sea level.
No no no. Have you never heard of adaptation? When Wanjiru ran 2:06 in the heat in Beijing it doesn’t mean he could run 2:02. We just don’t know. But we do know that adaptation offers mitigation against the stressor, so Nico’s 3:57 is worth faster than a 3:57 but probably only 2-3 seconds.
you are a random guy on a running forum, and you claim to have the answer as the opposite to all the experts 🤦🏻
No no no. Have you never heard of adaptation? When Wanjiru ran 2:06 in the heat in Beijing it doesn’t mean he could run 2:02. We just don’t know. But we do know that adaptation offers mitigation against the stressor, so Nico’s 3:57 is worth faster than a 3:57 but probably only 2-3 seconds.
you are a random guy on a running forum, and you claim to have the answer as the opposite to all the experts 🤦🏻
Apparently your knowledge of the word random is not expansive. I am the expert.