The 1500 is a dump tactical that Olympic gold was won in 3:50 for goodness shakes. In the 5k Jakob can run away from his competitors. He’s already won Olympic gold in the 1500. Jakob should get double gold in the 5 and 10. But the obsession with the 1500 is a family thing. It’s a race for guys not fast enough to sprint but also those with not the greatest endurance. The 1500 is for the untalented. Move up the 5 and 10 Jakob. Let this guy have his fluffy gold.
Lets be honest, Kerr is right. Jakob is never going to win another world championship 1500m final if he leads the majority of it. He is always going to end up leading it early in the race because he prefers fast paced races. It gives him the BEST chance for a medal which is reasonable because his fitness is so good he can front run 3:29 even on a bad day. This guarantees any medal as it is a fast time. However, theres always going to be someone who sits behind him who is in similar fitness, maybe with a -1 or -2 seconds in 1500m PB. In Belgrade it was tefera who sat on him for 1100 meters until beating him in the last 50. In Eugene he was overtaken by Wightman because he had no energy for a response after wasting it by leading and defending attacks by the Kenyans. In Budapest, in what seemed like the perfect race for him because he had no attacks on the outside, he was outkicked due to either not having enough at the end because he lead it for so long, or simply does not have a good kick. I don't know, frankly it doesn't matter because in every scenario he lead majority of the race and could not win.
Take El Guerrouj's world championship wins, a guy who people said could only win in unpaced races. It's true that in half of his wins (99 and 01) he had a pacemaker in his fellow countryman that allowed him to then lead at 900 and wind up the pace. Basically just like a diamond league race for Jakob that he could win. What about the other two? in 97 and 03 the pace through 700 was pretty slow but after 800 he would wind up the pace and with 400 to go he would be flat out sprinting and hoping nobody could catch him in the last 100. Jakob does not know how to do this, at the bell everyone is still sitting behind him and he leaves the final kick until the last 150-200 meters where he can be overtaken. The sad truth is that Jakob won't have a pacemaker in these finals (Nordas most likely won't) and he does not have the instantaneous gear change that el guerrouj had. He just can't win. This year it can be Nuguse who overtakes him, Kipsang, Kerr again, Wightman, Nordas. He is still a tremendous runner and in a paced race I think he can take the 1500 and mile record, but the world championship gold seems to be unlikely for the runner.
Glad to see Josh is still devastated by Jakob’s “next guy” comment. He knocks Jakob for being paced by Tim in Tokyo and doesn’t realize he’s undercutting his own gold in Budapest where Jakob paced him the entire way.
Looking forward to World Indoors where Josh will have another opportunity to duck Jakob!
To be fair it wasn't the entire way AND it wasn't agreed beforehand between Jakob and Josh.
More than anything it shows weakness in Kerr. He won one big title and is basically running scared for the Olympics. He knows the odds are against him. The only way he sees he can possibly get an advantage is talking dirty about Jakob to try to get under his skin. Being all talk speaks volumes about you.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Lets be honest, Kerr is right. Jakob is never going to win another world championship 1500m final if he leads the majority of it. He is always going to end up leading it early in the race because he prefers fast paced races. It gives him the BEST chance for a medal which is reasonable because his fitness is so good he can front run 3:29 even on a bad day. This guarantees any medal as it is a fast time. However, theres always going to be someone who sits behind him who is in similar fitness, maybe with a -1 or -2 seconds in 1500m PB. In Belgrade it was tefera who sat on him for 1100 meters until beating him in the last 50. In Eugene he was overtaken by Wightman because he had no energy for a response after wasting it by leading and defending attacks by the Kenyans. In Budapest, in what seemed like the perfect race for him because he had no attacks on the outside, he was outkicked due to either not having enough at the end because he lead it for so long, or simply does not have a good kick. I don't know, frankly it doesn't matter because in every scenario he lead majority of the race and could not win.
Take El Guerrouj's world championship wins, a guy who people said could only win in unpaced races. It's true that in half of his wins (99 and 01) he had a pacemaker in his fellow countryman that allowed him to then lead at 900 and wind up the pace. Basically just like a diamond league race for Jakob that he could win. What about the other two? in 97 and 03 the pace through 700 was pretty slow but after 800 he would wind up the pace and with 400 to go he would be flat out sprinting and hoping nobody could catch him in the last 100. Jakob does not know how to do this, at the bell everyone is still sitting behind him and he leaves the final kick until the last 150-200 meters where he can be overtaken. The sad truth is that Jakob won't have a pacemaker in these finals (Nordas most likely won't) and he does not have the instantaneous gear change that el guerrouj had. He just can't win. This year it can be Nuguse who overtakes him, Kipsang, Kerr again, Wightman, Nordas. He is still a tremendous runner and in a paced race I think he can take the 1500 and mile record, but the world championship gold seems to be unlikely for the runner.
Arrogance is the problem. He is the distance darling on the track all season long in paced races and doesn't appreciate how fast and fit his competition is. We know this to be true because he makes excuses. It doesn't seem he's learned from this championship final losses yet, so for the 1500 he'll continue to be very vulnerable in those finals. I see the same arrogance growing in the 5k... he's been lucky that the competition hasn't had the will to push the pace hard enough.
Finally, until the next championship final, Josh can continue to talk trash. No one in their right mind would prefer winning a bunch of diamond league races over a championship final. Josh knows Jakob is sore and is trying to stay in his head.
Bruh there can be no doubt a 2nd place finish was a huge disappointment for Jakob given the massive arrogance throughout the season. And it's even worse because it's not the first time it happened. Josh has the belt and until Jakob takes it back he has to cope.
Lets be honest, Kerr is right. Jakob is never going to win another world championship 1500m final if he leads the majority of it. He is always going to end up leading it early in the race because he prefers fast paced races. It gives him the BEST chance for a medal which is reasonable because his fitness is so good he can front run 3:29 even on a bad day. This guarantees any medal as it is a fast time. However, theres always going to be someone who sits behind him who is in similar fitness, maybe with a -1 or -2 seconds in 1500m PB. In Belgrade it was tefera who sat on him for 1100 meters until beating him in the last 50. In Eugene he was overtaken by Wightman because he had no energy for a response after wasting it by leading and defending attacks by the Kenyans. In Budapest, in what seemed like the perfect race for him because he had no attacks on the outside, he was outkicked due to either not having enough at the end because he lead it for so long, or simply does not have a good kick. I don't know, frankly it doesn't matter because in every scenario he lead majority of the race and could not win.
Take El Guerrouj's world championship wins, a guy who people said could only win in unpaced races. It's true that in half of his wins (99 and 01) he had a pacemaker in his fellow countryman that allowed him to then lead at 900 and wind up the pace. Basically just like a diamond league race for Jakob that he could win. What about the other two? in 97 and 03 the pace through 700 was pretty slow but after 800 he would wind up the pace and with 400 to go he would be flat out sprinting and hoping nobody could catch him in the last 100. Jakob does not know how to do this, at the bell everyone is still sitting behind him and he leaves the final kick until the last 150-200 meters where he can be overtaken. The sad truth is that Jakob won't have a pacemaker in these finals (Nordas most likely won't) and he does not have the instantaneous gear change that el guerrouj had. He just can't win. This year it can be Nuguse who overtakes him, Kipsang, Kerr again, Wightman, Nordas. He is still a tremendous runner and in a paced race I think he can take the 1500 and mile record, but the world championship gold seems to be unlikely for the runner.
I disagree for a couple reasons. First, I think Jakob is good enough to win leading after 400 like he has tried the last couple times. When I watched his PB race in Silesia, I was blown away by how little drafting he actually got. I’m sure there was some psychological benefit to having guys in front of him, and it’s always going to be easier to front run in a Diamond League than a global championship (no rounds), but 3:27.14 with very limited help from the pacers is an underrated performance. I can’t watch that race and convince myself this is a guy who is going to be vulnerable front running 3:29. It makes me think he could have run 3:27 high in Budapest with his Silesia fitness.
I understand some people will think it’s dumb to believe this, but if you look at the last couple championships, Jakob didn’t lose because he chose to front run. In Eugene he made a lot of unnecessary surges, and in Budapest he was sick and still ran a strong race, just not good enough on the day. If he were healthy I don’t see how he would’ve lost based on the way the rest of the season went. Maybe he wasn’t good enough in 2022 and would’ve lost even without battling the Kenyans for lead, but he was on another level in 2023.
In every Diamond league meet, he gets less pacing than the rest of the field (they still get to draft off him once the rabbits drop) and is crushing everyone regardless, even when they are near him in the final stages (Oslo, Lausanne). I don’t think all of that comes from getting 1000m of pacing vs 400 (Kipsang has taken the first lap in the last two finals), and Silesia proves it (to me at least). There wasn’t a 1500m race on the circuit this year where he drafted less, yet he still ran a huge PB with a strong finish.
The other thing is that although he is one of the slower guys in terms of 400 speed, he’s not slow. This gets harped on a lot as this huge weakness he has, but the way he ran the Budapest semis tells me his speed is underrated. Closing a 3:35 in 51 high while waving to the crowd and really only kicking in the last 200 is pretty impressive, and not something that indicates a guy who can’t even break 50 for 400 (like many here have speculated), or is so lacking in acceleration or finish that he could never win a tactical race. In a 3:35-3:40 championship scenario I think he has about as good a chance as anyone else.
He likes to front run (and not just for tactical reasons, see his Eugene interview) so I’m assuming we will get a repeat of the last couple years, but if he’s healthy I think he will bury the field. His biggest regret in Eugene was not going harder the 3rd lap, and I assume he would have tried it this year if not for being sick and realizing it wasn’t going to happen on the day. I’d personally rather see him sit behind the leader for 600-700 and then start cranking but that’s not how he likes to do it.
Looking forward to the Olympics in any case, and a little drama leading up to the season never hurts.
tldr; Jakob can win Worlds/Olympics from the front. His best time of the year came in a race with minimal drafting (not much more than he got in the last two World finals).
I agree with everything you've said, it's quite frankly puzzling that people ignore just how impressive his Silesia run was not just in terms of time, but how he ran it.
It seems reasonable that in a a tactical race he's definitely in the mix to win but would rather not take any risks because it becomes a crapshoot at that slow of a pace (everyone in a pack, could get tripped up or get boxed in).
Kerr is also the one that in an unpaced heat in the Olympics only got through on a little q. Under today’s rules he would’ve had to run an extra rd. It’s a tough last 2 races in the global finals (3 if you wanna include World Indoors). Still a small sample size with sickness last year. 2022 to 2023 he clearly made a lot of improvement in both time and finishing ability.
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