I really don't think people understand the impact of weather on this whole scenario. It's not just how heat, sun and humidity impact the marathon itself, but how it impacts individuals differently regardless of talent level. Just look at the World Championships and Olympics which are always run in similar conditions. That's the problem with qualifying times in marathons, those performances are done under perfect conditions and fast courses which are opposite of most championship marathon situations.
Due to the nature of the race there could be any number of possibilities with the finishing order. People can guess and speculate all day, but it's the marathon and it's going to be contested under challenging conditions.
For example when you look through the top 20-25 US men's times on the performance list the only guy who has run a good one under similar conditions was Zach Panning at the World Championships in 13th in 2:11:21. Everyone else ran their times in fast races / conditions.
It is possible in this kind of race that guys who have not run under 2:11:30 to this point end up in the top three by the finish. Take a look at the top 10 from the 2016 Trials in LA. It was a warm day in March. This is the reality of the situation.
2016 US Olympic Trials Marathon - LA
169 starters, 105 finishers, 64 DNF's
1) 2:11:12 Rupp (got 3rd at the Olympics)
2) 2:12:20 Meb
3) 2:13:00 Ward (got 6th at the Olympics)
4) 2:14:12 Puskedra
5) 2:14:57 Pennel
6) 2:15:16 Liano
7) 2:15:23 Biwott
8) 2:15:26 Smyth
9) 2:15:52 Quigley
10) 2:16:25 Arciniaga