IMO, in order to see a sub-15 on that track, the pacer needs to absolutely come through 3600m in 10:45, and there need to be a lot fewer typical collegiate-class athletes in the race.
Maybe they could incentivize Lengole to take it through 3600m in 10:45.
But if that were to happen, maybe she would want to stay in the race and win it.
Rodenfels in an interview after the US 5k road running champs in November said she'd run BU opener. Last year she placed 4th there in 15:31 then went on to run 15:08 at BU. This year she won the US 5k road running champs in 15:22 so seemingly should be around that 15 flat barrier. IMO perfect pacing for Tuohy/Valby if they are feeling good. While I think Valby is in 15:00 shape she hasn't quite shown the same fitness levels in track as she has in xc but that might change.
Rodenfels in an interview after the US 5k road running champs in November said she'd run BU opener. Last year she placed 4th there in 15:31 then went on to run 15:08 at BU. This year she won the US 5k road running champs in 15:22 so seemingly should be around that 15 flat barrier. IMO perfect pacing for Tuohy/Valby if they are feeling good. While I think Valby is in 15:00 shape she hasn't quite shown the same fitness levels in track as she has in xc but that might change.
Clearly, Valby's in much better shape than she was for any track races last year, and probably in slightly better shape than she was at XC Nats last year.
You'd have to think she's gotta be in somewhere around 15-flat shape, and maybe even a bit better.
You'd also have to think Tuohy should be in just about the same shape --assuming she's fully better from whatever was afflicting her last week, and didn't have a big disruption in training.
Really hope they both run, and get solid pacing without any screw-ups.
Rodenfels in an interview after the US 5k road running champs in November said she'd run BU opener. Last year she placed 4th there in 15:31 then went on to run 15:08 at BU. This year she won the US 5k road running champs in 15:22 so seemingly should be around that 15 flat barrier. IMO perfect pacing for Tuohy/Valby if they are feeling good. While I think Valby is in 15:00 shape she hasn't quite shown the same fitness levels in track as she has in xc but that might change.
Tuohy lost to Rodenfels at BU (15:08 - 15:15), and then turned around and beat her by almost 30 seconds at Sound Running (15:03 - 15:31). It turned out that Rodenfels was ill during Sound Running and didn't know it before the race. Which just goes to show how much a being a little sick can vary your performance.
If Rodenfels is going to focus on the 5k instead of Steeple, she's going to need that 14:52 standard. Will this be the race? Also curious to see which other pros hop in. Only two in the US have the standard so far, Monson and Henes.
This is the only dopey sport where people advise athletes to do what's against the money and fame... There's no money in professional running unless your world class... They should stay in school and milk the NCAA gravy train... They got a good thing going... If they focus on the Olympics they're just going to drift into obscurity... I mean who talks about wenie kelati or henes or aisling cuffe... Seriously... U guys r bozozs... And theyd be bozos for doing anything but NCAA... Also altitude training is over rated... Especially when your 80 seconds off world lead...
For your sake, I hope you’re not older than about 16. You sound like the guy in high school that wore pro singlets he bought off of eBay, and tried to convince everyone on the team that the coach’s training was wrong. Your time would definitely be better spent in English class.
This is the only dopey sport where people advise athletes to do what's against the money and fame... There's no money in professional running unless your world class... They should stay in school and milk the NCAA gravy train... They got a good thing going... If they focus on the Olympics they're just going to drift into obscurity... I mean who talks about wenie kelati or henes or aisling cuffe... Seriously... U guys r bozozs... And theyd be bozos for doing anything but NCAA... Also altitude training is over rated... Especially when your 80 seconds off world lead...
For your sake, I hope you’re not older than about 16. You sound like the guy in high school that wore pro singlets he bought off of eBay, and tried to convince everyone on the team that the coach’s training was wrong. Your time would definitely be better spent in English class.
Rodenfels in an interview after the US 5k road running champs in November said she'd run BU opener. Last year she placed 4th there in 15:31 then went on to run 15:08 at BU. This year she won the US 5k road running champs in 15:22 so seemingly should be around that 15 flat barrier. IMO perfect pacing for Tuohy/Valby if they are feeling good. While I think Valby is in 15:00 shape she hasn't quite shown the same fitness levels in track as she has in xc but that might change.
Clearly, Valby's in much better shape than she was for any track races last year, and probably in slightly better shape than she was at XC Nats last year.
You'd have to think she's gotta be in somewhere around 15-flat shape, and maybe even a bit better.
You'd also have to think Tuohy should be in just about the same shape --assuming she's fully better from whatever was afflicting her last week, and didn't have a big disruption in training.
Really hope they both run, and get solid pacing without any screw-ups.
The race results indicate Valby is fitter, even if she doesn’t realize it, yet. We can compare the SEC Champs times as one example indicating this:
-On this forum last year, we had guys looking at satellite imagery of the 2022 SEC course, convinced that it was probably 200m short (that’s ~38sec.)
-But for the 2023 SEC course (which, BTW, seemed to have been run in warmer conditions than last year), we had multiple parties visit the board (one said he was affiliated with setting up the course) stating the course was accurate in distance (although the split timing mats may have been off.) Additionally, somebody said Strava data from race results indicated the 2023 SEC distance was accurate.
But even if Valby is fitter this year, and in around 15min or sub-15min shape, that does not mean she is currently ready to run up to that fitness on a track, which is dependent upon whether ‘the kinetic chain’ is ready to take the sustained impact. Her team will know what is best rather than anyone here, and will be expected to try and bring her along appropriately.
Clearly, Valby's in much better shape than she was for any track races last year, and probably in slightly better shape than she was at XC Nats last year.
You'd have to think she's gotta be in somewhere around 15-flat shape, and maybe even a bit better.
You'd also have to think Tuohy should be in just about the same shape --assuming she's fully better from whatever was afflicting her last week, and didn't have a big disruption in training.
Really hope they both run, and get solid pacing without any screw-ups.
The race results indicate Valby is fitter, even if she doesn’t realize it, yet. We can compare the SEC Champs times as one example indicating this:
-On this forum last year, we had guys looking at satellite imagery of the 2022 SEC course, convinced that it was probably 200m short (that’s ~38sec.)
-But for the 2023 SEC course (which, BTW, seemed to have been run in warmer conditions than last year), we had multiple parties visit the board (one said he was affiliated with setting up the course) stating the course was accurate in distance (although the split timing mats may have been off.) Additionally, somebody said Strava data from race results indicated the 2023 SEC distance was accurate.
But even if Valby is fitter this year, and in around 15min or sub-15min shape, that does not mean she is currently ready to run up to that fitness on a track, which is dependent upon whether ‘the kinetic chain’ is ready to take the sustained impact. Her team will know what is best rather than anyone here, and will be expected to try and bring her along appropriately.
After you all, including the Valbymaniacs, carefully consider the ^above^, would it not make more sense for her to first do some ‘rust-buster’ races on the track, before trying to race at peak fitness?
Valby will take it out hard and run a very impressive 14:39. Tuohy will run hard the first 3000 and struggle home to finish in 15:21. Her coach will then announce how sick she was.
Then insecure letsrunners act tough on a message board, picking sides as they line up behind 21 year old women.
Yeah, but remember - they don't hate them, they only hate on them because of their fans. They'd take no real pleasure in seeing one fall and break their leg, other than taking great glee in knowing her pain would be much less than the pain it caused her fanboys.
Sigh - I hate to sound old, but I just don't understand the enmity people have for any athlete, but especially for younger ones still trying to wrap their brains around adulthood and high-level sports competition in the public eye. And then somehow - we wonder why a young athlete jumps off a building with so much going for them in life?
After you all, including the Valbymaniacs, carefully consider the ^above^, would it not make more sense for her to first do some ‘rust-buster’ races on the track, before trying to race at peak fitness?
The BU opener is an odd race. Rather than any rust buster, it's a balls to the wall race using the tail end of xc fitness. The teams that run hard here start the post xc break right after the BU race.
The idea is to knock out either the 5k or 3k indoor qualifier very early. If you look at recent results, this strategy has become so popular that about 75% of qualifiers for indoor 3&5 come from this one meet. Get your popcorn.
After you all, including the Valbymaniacs, carefully consider the ^above^, would it not make more sense for her to first do some ‘rust-buster’ races on the track, before trying to race at peak fitness?
The BU opener is an odd race. Rather than any rust buster, it's a balls to the wall race using the tail end of xc fitness. The teams that run hard here start the post xc break right after the BU race.
The idea is to knock out either the 5k or 3k indoor qualifier very early. If you look at recent results, this strategy has become so popular that about 75% of qualifiers for indoor 3&5 come from this one meet. Get your popcorn.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
The BU opener is an odd race. Rather than any rust buster, it's a balls to the wall race using the tail end of xc fitness. The teams that run hard here start the post xc break right after the BU race.
The idea is to knock out either the 5k or 3k indoor qualifier very early. If you look at recent results, this strategy has become so popular that about 75% of qualifiers for indoor 3&5 come from this one meet. Get your popcorn.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
So now, with that backdrop, if Tuohy were to show up, I wouldn’t even have Valby race. The Tuohy fans may have some fantasy thinking this will be Tuohy’s last revenge race before she goes pro, leaving on a high note. But it’s not Valby’s place to be full filling their fantasies. Valby certainly does not owe Tuohy a last race, particularly since Tuohy wouldn’t come out and race her on the track last spring. (There was your popcorn shot, Gator bait.)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
So now, with that backdrop, if Tuohy were to show up, I wouldn’t even have Valby race. The Tuohy fans may have some fantasy thinking this will be Tuohy’s last revenge race before she goes pro, leaving on a high note. But it’s not Valby’s place to be full filling their fantasies. Valby certainly does not owe Tuohy a last race, particularly since Tuohy wouldn’t come out and race her on the track last spring. (There was your popcorn shot, Gator bait.)
Now that was a low-blow, and I don’t want to participate in that crap. Tuohy had her reasons (illness or whatever) for not racing Outdoor Natty’s last spring, which is fine.
But I do want to emphasize that I don’t see the reasoning for her team to be pushing Valby to be racing on a track to peak fitness this early in the season, even if deranged fans are going to want to turn it into something ugly in their delusions.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
Sorry that makes no sense.
Sub 15 was plausible last year, and there were a bunch of pros in the race attempting it and pacers. What other race over indoors should she do? BU Valentine? It's all the same set up. Cranny ran 14:31 in a similar set up at Valentine, lapping runners. The chase pack was doing like 15 flat and slower.
Also, no one really does a 'rust buster' 5k during indoors... They try to get a qualifier and PR, and then run it again at conference and / or nationals, and fill in with 3k, dmr, mile etc...
The entire reason this meet is so popular is because it is fast.
The race results indicate Valby is fitter, even if she doesn’t realize it, yet. We can compare the SEC Champs times as one example indicating this:
-On this forum last year, we had guys looking at satellite imagery of the 2022 SEC course, convinced that it was probably 200m short (that’s ~38sec.)
-But for the 2023 SEC course (which, BTW, seemed to have been run in warmer conditions than last year), we had multiple parties visit the board (one said he was affiliated with setting up the course) stating the course was accurate in distance (although the split timing mats may have been off.) Additionally, somebody said Strava data from race results indicated the 2023 SEC distance was accurate.
But even if Valby is fitter this year, and in around 15min or sub-15min shape, that does not mean she is currently ready to run up to that fitness on a track, which is dependent upon whether ‘the kinetic chain’ is ready to take the sustained impact. Her team will know what is best rather than anyone here, and will be expected to try and bring her along appropriately.
After you all, including the Valbymaniacs, carefully consider the ^above^, would it not make more sense for her to first do some ‘rust-buster’ races on the track, before trying to race at peak fitness?
No, I don't think so. In recent years, we've seen lots of people run really great times for 5000 indoors in December off their XC fitness, without racing at all in-between.
Hit those bouncy BU boards, and let's see whatcha got.
And I gotta think, after running basically six 3:09s, on grass, with substantial hills, serious side-hills, winding curves, and a crazy opening K,... she's probably not gonna have too much trouble throwing five 3-flats, perfectly even, on that perfect track, with pacers, in single-file.
So now, with that backdrop, if Tuohy were to show up, I wouldn’t even have Valby race. The Tuohy fans may have some fantasy thinking this will be Tuohy’s last revenge race before she goes pro, leaving on a high note. But it’s not Valby’s place to be full filling their fantasies. Valby certainly does not owe Tuohy a last race, particularly since Tuohy wouldn’t come out and race her on the track last spring. (There was your popcorn shot, Gator bait.)
Certainly, not a shock if 1 or both not there. Fields will still be excellent. They could also do the old Coe/Ovett and have 1 go 3k and 1 go 5k.
These BU races are superb even without Valby\Tuohy.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
Sorry that makes no sense.
Sub 15 was plausible last year, and there were a of pros in the race attempting it and pacers. What other race over indoors should she do? BU Valentine? It's all the same set up. Cranny ran 14:31 in a similar set up at Valentine, lapping runners. The chase pack was doing like 15 flat and slower.
Also, no one really does a 'rust buster' 5k during indoors... They try to get a qualifier and PR, and then run it again at conference and / or nationals, and fill in with 3k, dmr, mile etc...
The entire reason this meet is so popular is because it is fast.
I can’t read the rest of your post without correcting the bolded stupidity. Go watch the race again! The pacers were way to slow for a sub-15 race. They would have been in the way for anyone that wanted to run sub-15!! It’s basic track, man.
Sub 15 was plausible last year, and there were a of pros in the race attempting it and pacers. What other race over indoors should she do? BU Valentine? It's all the same set up. Cranny ran 14:31 in a similar set up at Valentine, lapping runners. The chase pack was doing like 15 flat and slower.
Also, no one really does a 'rust buster' 5k during indoors... They try to get a qualifier and PR, and then run it again at conference and / or nationals, and fill in with 3k, dmr, mile etc...
The entire reason this meet is so popular is because it is fast.
I can’t read the rest of your post without correcting the bolded stupidity. Go watch the race again! The pacers were way to slow for a sub-15 race. They would have been in the way for anyone that wanted to run sub-15!! It’s basic track, man.
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I can’t read the rest of your post without correcting the bolded stupidity. Go watch the race again! The pacers were way too slow for a sub-15 race. They would have been in the way for anyone that wanted to run sub-15!! It’s basic track, man.