Of course who would want to spend 24 hours on a plane to come to australia to race 1 xc race in conditions that wouldnt suit him. It was in the middle of an austrlalian summer. those are brutal
All the talk of ducking/world champ stuff aside, sooner or later he’s gonna need to get into one of these races if he wants a shot at his national record. Definitely not happening without silver medalist jakob dragging him along.
Pre really seemed like a straightforward opportunity you don’t throw away if you want to be remembered down the road. Outside of us running geeks on a message board, nobody really remembers the world championships after a year or so, but records transcend the sport a bit more.
All the talk of ducking/world champ stuff aside, sooner or later he’s gonna need to get into one of these races if he wants a shot at his national record. Definitely not happening without silver medalist jakob dragging him along.
Pre really seemed like a straightforward opportunity you don’t throw away if you want to be remembered down the road. Outside of us running geeks on a message board, nobody really remembers the world championships after a year or so, but records transcend the sport a bit more.
Agree with the first part, Jakob will drag anyone to a national record. But the second part is wrong. No one outside of LRC knows who the mile world record holder is, they couldn't even guess, most probably think it's still Roger Bannister. People remember medals, especially Olympic medals. I can't speak for the US, but Worlds is a big deal in Europe so the medallists are also remembered - a lot of casuals remember Steve Cram as World champion. Ask almost any athlete it's always medals > records. The only time records are really valued is when they're attached to a superstar who also wins golds, like Bolt and Kipchoge
All the talk of ducking/world champ stuff aside, sooner or later he’s gonna need to get into one of these races if he wants a shot at his national record. Definitely not happening without silver medalist jakob dragging him along.
Pre really seemed like a straightforward opportunity you don’t throw away if you want to be remembered down the road. Outside of us running geeks on a message board, nobody really remembers the world championships after a year or so, but records transcend the sport a bit more.
No one outside of LRC knows who the mile world record holder is, they couldn't even guess, most probably think it's still Roger Bannister. People remember medals, especially Olympic medals. I can't speak for the US, but Worlds is a big deal in Europe so the medallists are also remembered - a lot of casuals remember Steve Cram as World champion.
99.9999% of people have never heard of Roger Bannister or Steve Cram.
No one outside of LRC knows who the mile world record holder is, they couldn't even guess, most probably think it's still Roger Bannister. People remember medals, especially Olympic medals. I can't speak for the US, but Worlds is a big deal in Europe so the medallists are also remembered - a lot of casuals remember Steve Cram as World champion.
99.9999% of people have never heard of Roger Bannister or Steve Cram.
I bet more people have heard of them than have heard of Hicham El Guerrouj
He doesn't need to show hes a contender... hes the reigning world champ.
Well, except he does need to show up. this is one of the infuriating things about this sport: nobody wants to race the best at every meet to show they in fact ARE the best. no, instead they win the one then dodge their competitors so they can claim being the best. Jakob doesn’t dodge anyone. Like him or not. He loses occasionally but comes in second or third.
everyone else is inconsistent. By far, Jakob’s season is superior. He just didn’t win that ONE race. stuff happens.
Kerr can dodge Jakob all year and only beat him in a championship final - he goes into the history books as better. Gotta win when it counts.
All the talk of ducking/world champ stuff aside, sooner or later he’s gonna need to get into one of these races if he wants a shot at his national record. Definitely not happening without silver medalist jakob dragging him along.
Pre really seemed like a straightforward opportunity you don’t throw away if you want to be remembered down the road. Outside of us running geeks on a message board, nobody really remembers the world championships after a year or so, but records transcend the sport a bit more.
Agree with the first part, Jakob will drag anyone to a national record. But the second part is wrong. No one outside of LRC knows who the mile world record holder is, they couldn't even guess, most probably think it's still Roger Bannister. People remember medals, especially Olympic medals. I can't speak for the US, but Worlds is a big deal in Europe so the medallists are also remembered - a lot of casuals remember Steve Cram as World champion. Ask almost any athlete it's always medals > records. The only time records are really valued is when they're attached to a superstar who also wins golds, like Bolt and Kipchoge
Championship medal count is the only tangible result for a runner... WRs will get broken and in the grand scheme of things no one cares about meets outside of the WC and Olympics. The criticism of JI in the 1500 is that he has a WC losing streak which is stands out even more the faster he runs. He is clearly one of the greats but his bar is much higher. Btw, if Kerr were to beat him for Olympic gold it would be a dagger to his heart... he'd be stuck trying to break the WR in the 5k to gain GOAT status. The pressure is going to be immense for him to win Olympic 1500 gold.
Agree with the first part, Jakob will drag anyone to a national record. But the second part is wrong. No one outside of LRC knows who the mile world record holder is, they couldn't even guess, most probably think it's still Roger Bannister. People remember medals, especially Olympic medals. I can't speak for the US, but Worlds is a big deal in Europe so the medallists are also remembered - a lot of casuals remember Steve Cram as World champion. Ask almost any athlete it's always medals > records. The only time records are really valued is when they're attached to a superstar who also wins golds, like Bolt and Kipchoge
Speaking for the US, Worlds is NOT a big deal for casual fans. I wish it were, but the Olympics are the only things that transcend.
As far as Kerr, Jakob evaluated his situation well. There is no reason to believe an athlete can't run well in the Championships and compete well before and after. Everyone understands peaking, and some athletes might go up and down more than others. Kerr smoked George Mills at 5th Avenue, and came .01 from beating 3:43.9 man Nuguse despite doing almost all the work with the worst pacing of the DL season. He was likely to run 3:46 at absolute worst at Pre. More likely he'd split Jakob/Yared or finish just behind. It's a missed opportunity, and if his 2024 looks anything like his 2022 it'd be rather unfortunate he didn't strike while the iron was hot.
Have you thought this through? Perhaps you're right, I've given it some thought and remember an example that supports your opinion.
There once was this unknown runner called Mohammed Farah, by some known only as Mo Farah. This runner rarely wanted to run for fast times, wasn't a fan of time trialing or going for the world records. He did however do quite alright in championships, but only the inner core of track and field really remember him, as the public (casual fans) only remember EPIC races like all the great runs by Kejelcha in DL etc. True, who remembers a winner in the most sought after competitions? Did Jakob win the Olympics? Can't really remember, I only remember the last race I watched on tv.
But Mo Farah won 10 global golds, and was almost never beaten during his best years. That's a bit different, isn't it?
...Surely it cannot be that you dont understand the blatantly obvious irony of my post?
But Mo Farah won 10 global golds, and was almost never beaten during his best years. That's a bit different, isn't it?
...Surely it cannot be that you dont understand the blatantly obvious irony of my post?
It’s obvious that (s)he does understand the irony and what you meant, but is questioning your argument by saying that Farah to Kerr is not a fair 1:1 comparison.
He was likely to run 3:46 at absolute worst at Pre. More likely he'd split Jakob/Yared or finish just behind.
I think he probably would have run 3:44.5-3:46.0 at Pre, with it being more probable that he’s over that range than under (because 3:46.0 is still fast in spite of two guys running REALLY fast). Saying it’s more likely he run 3:43-high than 3:46 is failing to appreciate how stunning Yared’s performance was. Jakob ran basically right in line with 3:27.14-4:43.13-7:54.10 and Nuguse was right there. Nuguse ran his last 1500m faster in 3:28.25 and averaged 3:28.75 pace, vs. Kerr’s 3:29.01 1500 PB. Sure, Yared’s 1500 PB coming in was 3:29.02, but I’m not willing to assume that Kerr was up for a similarly amazing race.
I think he probably would have run 3:44.5-3:46.0 at Pre, with it being more probable that he’s over that range than under (because 3:46.0 is still fast in spite of two guys running REALLY fast). Saying it’s more likely he run 3:43-high than 3:46 is failing to appreciate how stunning Yared’s performance was. Jakob ran basically right in line with 3:27.14-4:43.13-7:54.10 and Nuguse was right there. Nuguse ran his last 1500m faster in 3:28.25 and averaged 3:28.75 pace, vs. Kerr’s 3:29.01 1500 PB. Sure, Yared’s 1500 PB coming in was 3:29.02, but I’m not willing to assume that Kerr was up for a similarly amazing race.
I think Kerr is in fantastic shape is what I'm getting at. At Worlds he ran that 3:29-low with a pretty huge last lap and plenty of extra distance run. I don't see anything discouraging from his 2 races after either. The margin at Fifth Ave he put on Mills despite a pedestrian first half mile, and then a whisker away from beating Nuguse with a really bad pace job in a DL race that didn't play to his strengths either way. I think it's plausible he'd get dropped by the top 2 as they picked it up the last 400, but I think 3:43.8-3:45.5 was my likely range. I'm also presuming he'd skip Fifth Avenue in this scenario. Yared ran an amazing race, but it was also his best time to chase a fast mark ever. You'll note about the 3 races you mentioned — Yared was in none of them. A lot of his lack of a super-fast mark might be as simple as pinballing around the pack in DL races. This had none of that. I think Kerr sitting right on Nuguse would've been in a great spot as well — much better than his two fastest races (Tokyo, Budapest) to this point where he unleashed at 300m to go. I AM willing to assume he'd experience a jump in this race simply to never having a better chance to turn the brain off and run a time trial.
He was likely to run 3:46 at absolute worst at Pre. More likely he'd split Jakob/Yared or finish just behind.
I think he probably would have run 3:44.5-3:46.0 at Pre, with it being more probable that he’s over that range than under (because 3:46.0 is still fast in spite of two guys running REALLY fast). Saying it’s more likely he run 3:43-high than 3:46 is failing to appreciate how stunning Yared’s performance was. Jakob ran basically right in line with 3:27.14-4:43.13-7:54.10 and Nuguse was right there. Nuguse ran his last 1500m faster in 3:28.25 and averaged 3:28.75 pace, vs. Kerr’s 3:29.01 1500 PB. Sure, Yared’s 1500 PB coming in was 3:29.02, but I’m not willing to assume that Kerr was up for a similarly amazing race.
I do think what you're saying makes sense, but also, we'd be foolish to think that Josh Kerr isn't better than his PR (which is from Tokyo 2021). Yared nipping him at the line after Kerr led most of that Weltklasse didn't make me think Yared was better than Kerr -- I came away from that race still thinking I'd pick Kerr 6-7/10 times vs. Yared.
Jakob, Kerr, Yared and Wightman do seem to be a cut above at the moment, however.
...Surely it cannot be that you dont understand the blatantly obvious irony of my post?
It’s obvious that (s)he does understand the irony and what you meant, but is questioning your argument by saying that Farah to Kerr is not a fair 1:1 comparison.
Oh, so people DO remember an individual title as long as its several? So the poster is actually contradicting him/herself, Kerr WILL be remembered if he keeps going like this way more than if he was a good time trialer
...exactly. The average man remembers titles, we remember both.
Well, except he does need to show up. this is one of the infuriating things about this sport: nobody wants to race the best at every meet to show they in fact ARE the best. no, instead they win the one then dodge their competitors so they can claim being the best. Jakob doesn’t dodge anyone. Like him or not. He loses occasionally but comes in second or third.
everyone else is inconsistent. By far, Jakob’s season is superior. He just didn’t win that ONE race. stuff happens.
Kerr can dodge Jakob all year and only beat him in a championship final - he goes into the history books as better. Gotta win when it counts.
You mean like such household names such as Nils Schuman?
Do you really consider Emma Coburn as better than Beatrice Kipkoech? I mean, she beat her in the world championships, right?
He was likely to run 3:46 at absolute worst at Pre. More likely he'd split Jakob/Yared or finish just behind.
I think he probably would have run 3:44.5-3:46.0 at Pre, with it being more probable that he’s over that range than under (because 3:46.0 is still fast in spite of two guys running REALLY fast). Saying it’s more likely he run 3:43-high than 3:46 is failing to appreciate how stunning Yared’s performance was. Jakob ran basically right in line with 3:27.14-4:43.13-7:54.10 and Nuguse was right there. Nuguse ran his last 1500m faster in 3:28.25 and averaged 3:28.75 pace, vs. Kerr’s 3:29.01 1500 PB. Sure, Yared’s 1500 PB coming in was 3:29.02, but I’m not willing to assume that Kerr was up for a similarly amazing race.
It is interesting to see how generous you and TL are when it comes to estimating Kerr´s potential in the 1500m/ mile.
3:44.5 in the mile equals a 1500m in 3:27.87 (/ 108). That is about 1.5 seconds faster than Kerr has run this year and more than 1 seconds faster than Kerr ran in the Olympic final in 2021 (which time he hasn´t been able to replicate).
TL´s estimated mile time of 3:43.8 equals a 1500m in 3:27.22 which is even more generous.
Especially when you two probably will maintain that almost 3 years younger Jakob more or less has plateau´d in the 1500m?
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Jakob´s mile time 3:43.74 was rightly in line with his 3:27.14 PB in the 1500m.
But his mile time were in no way in line with his 4:43.13 WR in the 2000m or the 7:54.10 in the 2 mile.
The 2000m WR gives 1307 points and the 2 mile gives 1304 points in Worlds Athletics ranking system.
Jakob´s mile time gives 1284 points! On the other hand if Jakob had run a mile equally strong as his 2000m WR´s 1307 he should have run around 3:42 flat in my estimate.
That is why I in another thread have postulated that Jakob would have broken the WR in the mile had he run this distance in Brüssel instead of the 2000m.
It is interesting to see how generous you and TL are when it comes to estimating Kerr´s potential in the 1500m/ mile.
3:44.5 in the mile equals a 1500m in 3:27.87 (/ 108). That is about 1.5 seconds faster than Kerr has run this year and more than 1 seconds faster than Kerr ran in the Olympic final in 2021 (which time he hasn´t been able to replicate).
TL´s estimated mile time of 3:43.8 equals a 1500m in 3:27.22 which is even more generous.
Especially when you two probably will maintain that almost 3 years younger Jakob more or less has plateau´d in the 1500m?
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Jakob´s mile time 3:43.74 was rightly in line with his 3:27.14 PB in the 1500m.
But his mile time were in no way in line with his 4:43.13 WR in the 2000m or the 7:54.10 in the 2 mile.
The 2000m WR gives 1307 points and the 2 mile gives 1304 points in Worlds Athletics ranking system.
Jakob´s mile time gives 1284 points! On the other hand if Jakob had run a mile equally strong as his 2000m WR´s 1307 he should have run around 3:42 flat in my estimate.
That is why I in another thread have postulated that Jakob would have broken the WR in the mile had he run this distance in Brüssel instead of the 2000m.
What you're missing is that runners have intrinsic strengths and weaknesses. Jakob's greatest strength is holding a very fast pace 55.5-60.0 per 400m for a very long time. That skillset is tapped into the 1500 narrowly, but even moreso in the mile-5K (which we need to see him time trial soon). While this mile time was in line with his 1500m PB I think he has a greater chance to better it because the added 109 meters helps move him closer to his sweet spot of pace. He also had only 900 meters of pacing (far inferior to Silesia), less ability to see the wavelight and some wind to fight against (not issues in Silesia either). To me, his running the equivalent of Silesia came down more to him being slightly better in the mile than the 1500. Yared hinted the same that he thinks the mile -> 1500 conversion is generous. This is similarly because he is a strength guy as well who excels more in a 3,000 (7:23-5 capability likely) than an 800 (probably would be pressed to break 1:45). He also got better pacing/drafting than ever before which contributed to the jump.
Kerr is about as balanced a miler as can be, so I wouldn't argue for much of an effect for him running the mile vis a vis 1500. However, this would be by far his best chance to run fast in his carer. In Oslo and Lausanne, he was still catching up on fitness as he times his season/peak more significantly than most athletes. The fact is he's never run a well-executed pure time trial while at peak fitness. In 2021, he shut down after Tokyo. His two fastest times come from Championship Finals. He thought this would change in his DL after Worlds, but the pacing was botched by Matthew Ramsden who simultaneously slowed down the field and provided no drafting benefit. A painful double for anyone trying to run fast. It also was not a great setup being too close to worlds (more from an emotional standpoint, though a physical standpoint somewhat too). If you really think Kerr running splits of 56.66/58.16/54.76/39.80 in Budapest and going wide a fair bit to challenge Jakob is the maximal way to run fast, I don't really know what to tell you. That is a race that illustrates more like 3:27-8 ~ 3:43hi-3:45 fitness in a drag race scenario.
This post was edited 24 seconds after it was posted.
You stated Kerr at best could have run 3:43.8 in the mile in Eugene. That equals to 3:27.22 in the 1500m. So you estimate that Kerr could have run almost 2 seconds faster in the 1500m than he has ever run and more than 2 seconds faster than he has run this year. (He hasn´t improved his 2021 PB the last 2 years).
And I compare it to your opinion about almost 3 years younger Jakob´s potential in the 1500m. (I think you believe his potential is limited?)
Do you think Jakob can improve in the 1500m next year and if so how much?