I’ve been watching 5000m championship races for a few decades and can’t think of any examples of team tactics successful used or runners sacrificing themselves for teammates.
Can someone give examples or show why it may be different this time?
they didn't exactly sacrifice themselves, running the first parts of the race at around 13:00 pace, before slowing down to 13:10-13:15 pace before picking it up again to finish just under 13:00. Mind you, this was during a year that Barega had already run something like 12:43.
jakob hung on then, until 100 to go. and he is so much stronger now.
2:35 2nd K and Edris did none of the work, so yeah id say Barega and Bekele sacrificed their races a bit to give Edris what he wanted in that race which was to get a free ride and make Jakob burn himself a bit to get to the front.
Of course he's stronger now, that was 4 years ago and he hadnt broke 13:00 or 3:30 at that point, forget crushing the 2 Mile WR
They didnt do it last year, which is where they should have.
I dont see it happening this year with Aregawi doubling back. Gebriwhet and Kejelcha are not going to front run, maybe Bekele but not without the group committted.
I dont see the Kenyans front running either with Kipkorir doubling.
Youll probably see a tepid move with 2k to go by Krop or someone, non committal, then the big move coming at 1200m to go by Kejelcha/Gebriwhet with Jakob and Katir just waiting till 500m to go
How does Cheptigei fit into that scenario?
I think he will be in the same boat as Aregawi after the double. They will be in the pack for sure but i dont see either of them making the race. They will probably hope they can close well but i dont see them matching the closing speed of even Nur or Luis G in this race.
they didn't exactly sacrifice themselves, running the first parts of the race at around 13:00 pace, before slowing down to 13:10-13:15 pace before picking it up again to finish just under 13:00. Mind you, this was during a year that Barega had already run something like 12:43.
jakob hung on then, until 100 to go. and he is so much stronger now.
2:35 2nd K and Edris did none of the work, so yeah id say Barega and Bekele sacrificed their races a bit to give Edris what he wanted in that race which was to get a free ride and make Jakob burn himself a bit to get to the front.
Of course he's stronger now, that was 4 years ago and he hadnt broke 13:00 or 3:30 at that point, forget crushing the 2 Mile WR
that a single K at just under 13:00 pace, coming from two guys who had run 12:43 and 12:52 that year. not a huge sacrifice...and then they slowed down, monumentally after that.
it's gonna be a fast race, but those who think something like 12:40 are going to be disappointed.
Looking at the 2019 race, Ethiopia finished 1, 2, 4. No one really sacrificed themself for another.
Also, none of them were leading with 1000m to go. Jakob took over with a lap to go. They passed him with a little over 100 to go. And Jakob wasn’t favored then.
It was team tactics. But it wasn’t example of team tactics to beat a better runner.
Looking at the 2019 race, Ethiopia finished 1, 2, 4. No one really sacrificed themself for another.
Also, none of them were leading with 1000m to go. Jakob took over with a lap to go. They passed him with a little over 100 to go. And Jakob wasn’t favored then.
It was team tactics. But it wasn’t example of team tactics to beat a better runner.
i agree. they worked together, with a realistic shot at 1, 2, 3; just barely missing that goal. there was no sacrifice, they each led for 800 chunks at a time. they will do the same this year, unless somebody isn't feeling it and bails in the moment.
I wouldn't be surprised to see kipchoge's 12:52.xx record broken. but will it be jakob or one of them?
2019 was a cool race and very highly likely to be a lens into this year's tactics. i highly recommend everybody interested in the distance to go and watch it.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Looking at the 2019 race, Ethiopia finished 1, 2, 4. No one really sacrificed themself for another.
Also, none of them were leading with 1000m to go. Jakob took over with a lap to go. They passed him with a little over 100 to go. And Jakob wasn’t favored then.
It was team tactics. But it wasn’t example of team tactics to beat a better runner.
So the fastest guy in the world in that year Barega, leading at 2k was an optimal strategy for him to win that race?
Chelimo was likely who they were worried about in that race.
Jakob is a different story now. There's no neutralizing him with tactics anymore.
If he doesnt get into a pissing match mid race it's his to win, 1500 or 5000.
Looking at the 2019 race, Ethiopia finished 1, 2, 4. No one really sacrificed themself for another.
Also, none of them were leading with 1000m to go. Jakob took over with a lap to go. They passed him with a little over 100 to go. And Jakob wasn’t favored then.
It was team tactics. But it wasn’t example of team tactics to beat a better runner.
i agree. they worked together, with a realistic shot at 1, 2, 3; just barely missing that goal. there was no sacrifice, they each led for 800 chunks at a time. they will do the same this year, unless somebody isn't feeling it and bails in the moment.
I wouldn't be surprised to see kipchoge's 12:52.xx record broken. but will it be jakob or one of them?
2019 was a cool race and very highly likely to be a lens into this year's tactics. i highly recommend everybody interested in the distance to go and watch it.
Kejelcha and Gebrewhit will not agree to that strategy, that's not how they race at Championships.
Looking at the 2019 race, Ethiopia finished 1, 2, 4. No one really sacrificed themself for another.
Also, none of them were leading with 1000m to go. Jakob took over with a lap to go. They passed him with a little over 100 to go. And Jakob wasn’t favored then.
It was team tactics. But it wasn’t example of team tactics to beat a better runner.
i agree. they worked together, with a realistic shot at 1, 2, 3; just barely missing that goal. there was no sacrifice, they each led for 800 chunks at a time. they will do the same this year, unless somebody isn't feeling it and bails in the moment.
I wouldn't be surprised to see kipchoge's 12:52.xx record broken. but will it be jakob or one of them?
2019 was a cool race and very highly likely to be a lens into this year's tactics. i highly recommend everybody interested in the distance to go and watch it.
Yes Jakob was at best an outsider in that 5000m final. Had just turned 19.
And he overestimated his strenght when he was going to the front in the beginning of the last lap. If he had stayed behind Mo Ahmed he would have medaled (probably got the bronze).
IMO, the problem with running a 12:40 flat pace is that whoever will be in the front pushing that pace is unlikely to win. So basically sacrificing himself. No one wants to do that in a WC final.
And the problem with running over 12:50, is that Jakob will likely squeeze them all in the last k.
IMO, there's a fine line where they should run around 12:45-12:50 for the first 3k, and then push the last 2k at 12:40 pace, preventing Jakob to completely control the last k, while not burning themselves out for the last 400.
So without pacers or wavelights, the field is just simply going to decide to run one of the fastest 5000m races in history? They will do this mind you after numerous key players have doubled? So basically after 4 laps there will be 3-4 people in contention?
Jakob is fearless, the most fearless runner I've ever seen. In the 2019 worlds and only 18 years old he went for the win with 400 or 300 m similar to Steve Prefontaine in the 72 Olympics. He died at the end as Pre did and missed a medal. But it was his aggressive attitude that was so impressive and he was so dissatisfied. imagine any of the 18 year old superstar HS runners in the US doing that. We talk about all those great HS runners but can you imagine any of them finishing 5th place in the 5,000 world championships. It is Jakob's fearless attitude that makes him so hard to beat. He fears no one, esp the Africans. He's been running against them and beathing most of them all his life. He has the mental edge and has a very good chance of winning the 5,000 and he knows it and that is what makes him so damn tough! In some ways he reminds me of Tirunesh Dibaba the baby face destroyer when she was young. Looks so unassuming but with the heart of a lion!
Let it go at 14+ pace to 4600 or as close as you can get before someone takes off, and let the chips fall where they may on the last lap. He is not a sub-50 400m man, according to his camp, so that's your only possibility if he doesn't fall, because last year showed that he can crush everyone off of a medium pace (he won in 13:09) on a hot day, the 12:48 showed he could crush everyone off of a fast pace, and the 7:54 2M this year showed he could run a 5000m world record, so pacing to low 12:30s would not stop him.
IMO, the problem with running a 12:40 flat pace is that whoever will be in the front pushing that pace is unlikely to win. So basically sacrificing himself. No one wants to do that in a WC final.
And the problem with running over 12:50, is that Jakob will likely squeeze them all in the last k.
IMO, there's a fine line where they should run around 12:45-12:50 for the first 3k, and then push the last 2k at 12:40 pace, preventing Jakob to completely control the last k, while not burning themselves out for the last 400.
The only person who has taken out a fully fit and in form Jakob at a championship level is Jake Wightman. He did this by hanging on and executing a breaking move late in the race with his superior speed. A similar move would have to be made in the 5k but I just don't know who runs away from him in the same way. Anyone who has the raw speed needed to make such a move (if there even is anyone like that who runs the 5k at worlds) probably won't be hanging around that close to the front or feeling good enough to unleash a kick that late.
If I had to pick someone, I'd say Kejelcha or Katir have the best chance from where I stand. Both have great speed but shouldn't be put off by a solid early pace or a big final push from Jakob. Kejelcha especially has experience racing at the end of a fast 5k this year and could battle Jakob to the line. If they can stay out of trouble in the pack and just shadow Jakob, then wait for him to make his move and cling on before finally dumping the gas with one final move to pass or draw level with him late, then they can win. It's a tall task but not impossible with how good some of these guys are this year.
you could get some climate protestors to come onto the track maybe greta thunberg could be their leader and greta could come into lane 1 and start twerking in front of jakob who would have to make a detour out into lane 3 or 4 but unbeknownst to him this is the water table area and he would go crashing into the table sending plastic cups flying in all directions. this may take out one or two of the other runners but ultimately you would get a winner that was not jakob.
Let it go at 14+ pace to 4600 or as close as you can get before someone takes off, and let the chips fall where they may on the last lap. He is not a sub-50 400m man, according to his camp, so that's your only possibility if he doesn't fall, because last year showed that he can crush everyone off of a medium pace (he won in 13:09) on a hot day, the 12:48 showed he could crush everyone off of a fast pace, and the 7:54 2M this year showed he could run a 5000m world record, so pacing to low 12:30s would not stop him.
51.03 with a terrible block start 6 years ago. Zero chance he can’t break 50 today. Nobody in the 5k field is faster than him at 400 or 800, so jogging for 4600 is a terrible idea.
Their best bet is to run it like Paris WC. Easier said than done, of course, but that type of race was enough to narrowly defeat El G. Maybe it would be enough to defeat Ingebrigtsen.
I agree with u. where is an example that he can’t? If he runs to his potential nobody is beating a 7:54 two miler. He looks so easy running at 60 second per lap pace. I think the best option is surging constant uneven pace. Don’t let him get into a rythym
Jakob "can't simply hold the the pace of the 5k guys this year". Why can't he? Do you have the slightest indication that he can't? If you answer provide some empirical evidence.
It's called sport. Take a 12'48" runner who runs 1500m batteries + final two days before the 5k final and let him compete with a bunch of 12'35"-12'40" guys that only runs that event (some of them) while some others run 10k seven days before. Times, recovery and team work are everything in athletics.
Jakob is not a 12:48 guy anymore. He just obliterated the 2 miles WR of Daniel Komen, who ran 12:39. This doesn't mean Jakob can run 12:35, but he is one of the best strength runners in history. Almost all the cards are in his favor:
2 miles WR,
Beat all these guys to win the world title last year
Strength runner
Ran 12:48 in 2020(?), has improved over every distance since then.