it will happen once they allow men who feel like women to compete in womens races
Well, Semenya, Niyonsaba, et.al. lack ovaries, uterus, and mammary glands. They have to very carefully shave or wax lest a photographer catch them with 5:00 shadow. And although they are no longer competing in the Women's division (or at all, since they can't qualify for any pro competitions in the Men's division, in which they are welcome), they were allowed for a long while and their times were considered valid women's marks.
So, during the time period between Bannister and last year, plenty of them had the chance to break it. Interestingly, most State high school federations allow it, and boys breaking 4 is certainly not unheard of. So I'll weigh in and say next year.
It took 20 years for the male record to go from 4:06 to 3:59. Also, the first guys to break 4:00 were all 1:50-1:52 guys. Need a Semenya or Mu type talent to do it.
It took 5years for Women's to go from 4:12 to 4:07.
The disrespect towards Faith is crazy. She ran a 1:57 in the second half of a 1500m, what do you think she could run for an all out 800?
It took 20 years for the male record to go from 4:06 to 3:59. Also, the first guys to break 4:00 were all 1:50-1:52 guys. Need a Semenya or Mu type talent to do it.
It took 5years for Women's to go from 4:12 to 4:07.
The disrespect towards Faith is crazy. She ran a 1:57 in the second half of a 1500m, what do you think she could run for an all out 800?
What? 4:12 was run 27 years ago. The 1500 equivalent of 4:12 was run 43 years ago.
Maybe with this trend of runners marrying runners a few super offspring will be born. For example, Faith Kipyegon's husband, Timothy Kitum, ran 1:42 (3rd in London 2012) when he was 18. Their daughter should have pretty good middle distance genetics.
3:50 for the 1500 was achieved in 1993, so the record effectively hasn't moved much in 30 years (we all know how doped that mark was, but still). Not saying it'll never happen, I don't think anyone ten years ago could've anticipated the kind of improvement we've seen in the marathon for example. But sub-four will take a tech breakthrough far beyond the current shoes, and I'm not confident I'll see it in my lifetime (I'm 26).
No it wasn’t, I can guarantee that the track the Chinese used to set those records was much shorter than 400m. They dug it up immediately afterwards so what does that tell you? Wangs 8.06 for 3000m could not have been achieved any other way. Look at videos of her running- she was very limited talent wise, sure massive doping assisted Wang and her group enormously, but there is no way she ran a legitimate 3k in 8.06 even if doped to the very max. It’s just obvious and I’m surprised others haven’t cottoned onto this.
So took around 21 years to reduce it from 4:07-3:59 for men. Could take longer to women because naturally world record progression has largely slowed with time due to the refinement of training, shoes, etc. Although, important to note, this period was broken by WW2 and its aftermath which slowed many world record progressions. Hard to tell. As the record is now under 4:10 I feel like people will start considering sub 4 for a woman as possible, and I certainly dont think it’s ridiculous to say it is. I would guess ~30 years before woman sub 4. Those who say a certain mark is “impossible” are almost always proven wrong within enough time.
Sorry, but that really doesn't have anything to do with how long it will taken women to break 4.
Its like saying "it took men 20 years to go from 14:36 to 14:17 in the 5k (1912-1932)"
Well women did it in 12 years - 14:36 to 14:16 in the 5k (1995 - 2007)
We can cherry pick meaningless stats all day. But I think women do break 4 relatively soon, possibly in the next decade. The training and coaching has improved so much and we are seeing it with times dropping year to year for women. Ethiopia's Birke Haylom is 17 and she ran a 3:54 1500 this year. Possibly a talent to look for in like 8 years when she hits her prime. And many other talents we may not even know of until 5-7 years from now.
How about a downhill road mile, with male pacers and super shoes to break the ice?
I'd like to see how fast she could run on the track with male pacers to draft off of and push her the entire way. If that were allowed we might only be talking a 4 or 5 second gap to the women's sub 4 barrier.
Semenya is intersex, meaning she exhibits some male traits and some female, e.g. she has a vagina (or at least vulva), not a penis or descended testicles. However she does not appear to possess ovaries, instead having undescended testicles producing high levels testosterone, and there is some evidence she has XY chromosomes (although as far as I am aware, that has never been officially confirmed, merely insinuated). Regardless, she is incapable of breaking 4:00 in the mile and unrelated to this discussion.
Personally I think it will take much longer than 20 years for a woman to break 4:00. The progression of the mile world record is fairly erratic because it is not often run. The women’s record for 1500m has progressed 7 seconds over the last 47 years. Even if we assumes linear progression, it will take at least 50 years. I expect it may take much longer.
when it gets close enough to 4:04 or so there will be a lot of hype around it. First women to break 4:00 $1,000,000 prize or whatever, a decent amount of fanfare
Science isn't political but the right is doing its best to make it so and always has.
Science has always been political. It's been political for far longer than the current "left" and "right" existed. See Kepler, for example. It's been political since the word science was invented and will continue to be so until humans are extinct.
Science is not political. But there are those who seek to make it so. Like you.
It is postulated here that Kipyegon, whose best 1500 in 2019 was over 3:54 (which was 2 seconds better than her previous best), should continue improving so that she runs the imperial equivalent of 3:42 (or at least 3:46). "Naturally", of course. Fans are unbelievable. And so are today's top athletes.
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If I were 15 I wouldn't be confident I'd see it in my lifetime. There is currently one woman who has been sub 4:10 and by all indications she'll depart the 1500 after 2024.
It's somewhat like the 400 record. That one is going to require a prodigy 200 sprinter who also shows inclination toward the 400 while in her prime. As others have emphasized, the mile mark is going to have to be a Mu type who can run low 1:50s and also stretch out. Late blooming stiffs have no chance. It has to be a freak prodigy.
But even if a prodigy like that shows up, it's going to require the rest of the field being roughly 10 seconds faster than they are today. Nobody is going to break 4 minutes when the field is still struggling to bust 4:00 in a Diamond League 1500. Drop the 4:00 weekly reference point to 3:50 and hope there's a Kipyegon standalone type who can be similarly dominant, a standard deviation above the field.
Lights will help. Track technology and shoe technology will help even more.
No records are achievable without a truckload of drugs and that has been so for decades. But hang on to your dreams that these achievements are natural, by all means.