Iowa has a guy who finished 3nd at the B10 championship in the tk and 10k. They have a freshman who ran 14:15 and didn't make too 7 last year. They can only move up.
I think Iowa can move past Indiana and Illinois. Murphy will probably do much better than last year, but they still lack the depth to move up very far.
Murphy placed second in the 5 and 10k I didn't realize that but his xc results are pretty shaky 37th at big tens and didn't run regionals. Ryan's 14:15 result seems more promising imo but the rest of his results are not really there. It takes more than two to score and relying on two guys who are not always consistent is not a good look I looked more at their roster and their top xc finisher is not returning maybe because of eligibility but he was listed as a junior? They had 5 other underclassmen who aren't returning as well not sure what's going on there but that is never a good sign. One of those kids was a 3:43 guy
They only placed 2 in 5k, 10k, and steeple at B10 outdoor. Telling us what happened before that is like saying a football team was 6-6 last year but you claim they will be really good because they were 10-2 the season before they were 6-6.
But we are talking abut XC so its literally 100% relevant when predicting...(a science based entirely on what happened the last time.)
No. Wr have more recent results from track to use to make predictions. People improve. People get injured. People transfer in. People transfer out. Wisconsin wasn't nearly as dominant during track. There are rumors that Spencer is going pro. Liking hasn't run as well.
Here is what looks to be each team's top 5 returners. The teams are ordered based on how good their top 5 looks. I don't know who is transferring at which school, so I just assumed no one was.
Wisconsin Jackson Sharp 3:57, 13:26, Bob Liking 4:03, 13:27, 28:00 Rowen Ellenberg 3:44, 13:46 Adam Spencer 1:46, 3:37 Jack Meijer 3:43, 13:51 Evan Bishop 4:04, 13:45, 29:03 Micah Wilson 13:56, 29:13
Michigan Arjun Jha 3:41, 13:53, 29:45 Oli Raimond 3:59, 13:57 Zach Stewart 14:01, 29:58 Luke Venhuizen 14:04 Jack Spamer 8:52, 14:31
Michigan State Riley Hough 14 @ B1G XC Andrew Nolan 3:45, 8:05 Fraser Wilson 14:08 Andrew Lane 14:09 Aden Smith 8:12, 14:19
Iowa Max Murphy 3:40 13:39 28:57 Nick Trattner 3:47 13:55 29:39 Will Ryan 14:15 Kal Lewis 3:43 14:33 Hayden Kuhn 14:33
Purdue Alex Frey 3:47, 14:00 Nathan Walker 3:46, 14:06 Andrew Brandt 8:13, 14:16 Jason Polydoris 14:22, 30:20 Brady Yoder 3:47, 14:23
Illinois Tyler Cushing 3:50, 14:07, 29:55 Jack Roberts 8:07, 14:17 Will O'Brien 3:42 Irwin Loud 3:52, 14:24 Brady Masters 14:28
Penn State Evan Dorenkamp 1:48, 3:40, 8:01 Hayden Healy 8:16, 14:20 Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 8:14, 14:26 Jonah Powell 1:51, 3:44 Christopher Desousa 14:38
Minnesota Eli Hoeft 3:40, 14:07 Emmet Anderson 14:21 Leo Goodman 3:47 Richard Landis 14:27 Noah Kohut-Jackson 3:50, 8:59
Ohio State Sean Carney 4:07, 8:06 Giovanni Copploe 8:21, 14:26 Zubin Jha 14:37, 30:08 Kevin Agnew 8:18, 14:35 Zach Schultz 14:43
Rutgers Liam Tilton 14:29 Brian Peretti 8:25 Gavin Richards 1:52, 3:47 Christopher Hill 3:48 Alec Snell 1:50, 3:51
Nebraska Jake Ralston 8:26 14:40 Cal Puskar 3:51 Jerry Jorgenson 8:33 Colby Erdkamp 8:34 Grant Wasserman Bad
Northwestern XXX
Maryland XXX
You left off Michigan’s top 2 men. Hard to keep track off because “senior” means different things with Covid eligibility.
replace Arjun with these two:
Tom Brady 13:36/28:46, B10 10k champ
Nick Foster 3:38 7:53
Oli Raimond 3:59, 13:57 Zach Stewart 14:01, 29:58 Luke Venhuizen 14:04 Jack Spamer 8:52, 14:31
Anthony and Michael Hancock ran 4:04 and 4:06 indoors,
They also had freshmen Caleb Jarema and Riley Flemington with the pan am U20 steeple/1500 and they have 14:0x Duke transfer and some good Canadians coming
Here is what looks to be each team's top 5 returners. The teams are ordered based on how good their top 5 looks. I don't know who is transferring at which school, so I just assumed no one was.
Wisconsin Jackson Sharp 3:57, 13:26, Bob Liking 4:03, 13:27, 28:00 Rowen Ellenberg 3:44, 13:46 Adam Spencer 1:46, 3:37 Jack Meijer 3:43, 13:51 Evan Bishop 4:04, 13:45, 29:03 Micah Wilson 13:56, 29:13
Michigan Arjun Jha 3:41, 13:53, 29:45 Oli Raimond 3:59, 13:57 Zach Stewart 14:01, 29:58 Luke Venhuizen 14:04 Jack Spamer 8:52, 14:31
Michigan State Riley Hough 14 @ B1G XC Andrew Nolan 3:45, 8:05 Fraser Wilson 14:08 Andrew Lane 14:09 Aden Smith 8:12, 14:19
Iowa Max Murphy 3:40 13:39 28:57 Nick Trattner 3:47 13:55 29:39 Will Ryan 14:15 Kal Lewis 3:43 14:33 Hayden Kuhn 14:33
Purdue Alex Frey 3:47, 14:00 Nathan Walker 3:46, 14:06 Andrew Brandt 8:13, 14:16 Jason Polydoris 14:22, 30:20 Brady Yoder 3:47, 14:23
Illinois Tyler Cushing 3:50, 14:07, 29:55 Jack Roberts 8:07, 14:17 Will O'Brien 3:42 Irwin Loud 3:52, 14:24 Brady Masters 14:28
Penn State Evan Dorenkamp 1:48, 3:40, 8:01 Hayden Healy 8:16, 14:20 Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 8:14, 14:26 Jonah Powell 1:51, 3:44 Christopher Desousa 14:38
Minnesota Eli Hoeft 3:40, 14:07 Emmet Anderson 14:21 Leo Goodman 3:47 Richard Landis 14:27 Noah Kohut-Jackson 3:50, 8:59
Ohio State Sean Carney 4:07, 8:06 Giovanni Copploe 8:21, 14:26 Zubin Jha 14:37, 30:08 Kevin Agnew 8:18, 14:35 Zach Schultz 14:43
Rutgers Liam Tilton 14:29 Brian Peretti 8:25 Gavin Richards 1:52, 3:47 Christopher Hill 3:48 Alec Snell 1:50, 3:51
Nebraska Jake Ralston 8:26 14:40 Cal Puskar 3:51 Jerry Jorgenson 8:33 Colby Erdkamp 8:34 Grant Wasserman Bad
Northwestern XXX
Maryland XXX
You left off Michigan’s top 2 men. Hard to keep track off because “senior” means different things with Covid eligibility.
replace Arjun with these two:
Tom Brady 13:36/28:46, B10 10k champ
Nick Foster 3:38 7:53
Oli Raimond 3:59, 13:57 Zach Stewart 14:01, 29:58 Luke Venhuizen 14:04 Jack Spamer 8:52, 14:31
Anthony and Michael Hancock ran 4:04 and 4:06 indoors,
They also had freshmen Caleb Jarema and Riley Flemington with the pan am U20 steeple/1500 and they have 14:0x Duke transfer and some good Canadians coming
Tom Brady and Nick Foster were both listed as seniors at last year's B1G XC meet. Are you sure they actually have XC eligibility and not just track?
No. Wr have more recent results from track to use to make predictions. People improve. People get injured. People transfer in. People transfer out. Wisconsin wasn't nearly as dominant during track. There are rumors that Spencer is going pro. Liking hasn't run as well.
I will agree with transfers and injury but not "recent track results". That is sketchy at best when talking XC. Wisc was beyond dominant at Big10s it wasnt close. They occupied nearly the entire top 10 and lost few. Will they be as good? No, nobody ever will be at Big10s. But who is going to challenge? I hope they finish last myself.
Of course track results count and are more recent. Nobodybis saying that the Badgers won't dominate but somebody said 20 points. The best example is Murphy from Iowa. He was 37th at B10 XC but then ran 13:37 in track and finished 2nd in theb5k amd 10k at B10 beating Liking. Are you really saying that you think he will be 37th in XC this fall? Come on.
Spencer has hit a whole different plan; 3:31 is so far ahead of anything in the Big Ten other than from UW. Is there much chance of anyone else getting higher than fourth? This is not quite like 2005 where they went 1/2/3/4/6/7/8/9 The guy in ninth got beat by only one runner from the other schools but did not make All-Big Ten, since he was eighth on the team and hence was not officially in the results. The score was UW 16, Big Ten 47 and no other team was under 100 . UW won the NCAA meet with 37 points (105 for Arkansas in second).
Oh, yeah, both the Big Ten meet on the NCAA Regional are in Madison (which might be important for the women).