Considering what Jakob ran last week in Paris, I’m surprised by these conservative predictions. According to the World Athletics scoring tables, his 7:54.10 2-mile is roughly equivalent to a 3:25.91. Plus wasn’t this race changed from a mile to a 1500 so he could run a really fast time in the shorter distance? I think he runs 3:27 or better.
Jakob wants to run some 1.500s before Budapest. Last year he ran two miles and hardly any 1500s before Eugene. He didn’t want that this year.
Oh that is a very spicy field. Going to be controversial and say Nuguse and Katir are 2nd and 3rd til very, very late and then get rushed before the line after trying too hard to stay with Jakob for too long.
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
3. Cheruiyot
4. Hoare
5. Nuguse
6. Katir
I predict Katir and Cheruiyot race Jakob most aggressively with Katir being the last to lose contact with ~200 to go. Nuguse passes TC and MK late and is the only one to actually split slightly faster than Jakob for the last 300, albeit off ~2:48.2 at 1200 vs. ~2:46.8.
Incredible field and hard to imagine the Budapest final will be much better. Sure, Wightman, Cheruiyot JR, or another top American are missing, but this is a remarkable assembly of talent. We know that Tim and Katir are super fit, and Yared and Olli are very fit, but after Paris, it’s foolish to think anybody is going to beat Jakob. Jakob says the Bislet track is slow, sort of….
Jakob: 3:28.20.
Jakob leads from 800 and in the end, it’s not close. The others fight it out down the stretch.
Katir: 3:29.20
Yared: 3:29.50
Tim: 3:29.70
Several others under 3:31-3:32.
Believe it or not, I was gonna say:
1. Jakob 3:28.20
2. Nuguse 3:29.47
3. Katir 3:29.60
4. Cheruiyot 3:30.07
Believe it or not I wasn´t fast enough predict exactly the same four top runners and in the same order. I, however, did state a while ago that Jakob and Nuguse would go 1-2 in Oslo. And after Katir´s win in Florence I predict he will beat Tim.
I think Jakob will gap the field in the last lap trying to go sub 3:28.
Oslo Diamond League is not a Dream Mile this year but instead a LOADED 1500.
Here is the start list ranked by PR
CHERUIYOT, Timothy - KEN - 3:28.28 INGEBRIGTSEN, Jakob - NOR - 3:28.32 KATIR, Mohamed - ESP - 3:28.76 KERR, Josh - GBR - 3:29.05 MCSWEYN, Stewart - AUS - 3:29.51 KIPSANG, Abel - KEN - 3:29.56 INGEBRIGTSEN, Filip - NOR - 3:30.01 HOARE, Oliver - AUS - 3:30.12 GARCÍA, Mario - ESP - 3:30.20 HABZ, Azeddine - FRA - 3:31.74 LEMI, Teddese - ETH - 3:31.90 NORDÅS, Narve Gilje - NOR - 3:32.39 GOURLEY, Neil - GBR - 3:32.93 GRETHEN, Charles - LUX - 3:32.86 NUGUSE, Yared - USA - 3:33.02 ALMGREN, Andreas - SWE - 3:36.52 AKBACHE, Mounir - FRA - 3:39.81
Who do you see as the #1 challenger to Jakob? I'm still going with Yared but if you want to say Katir or Timothy I'll let you :)
Yated is third to last on that list. Even sorting for seasons best he isn't the one closest to Jakob.
What have American runners done to you that you hate them so much?
Considering what Jakob ran last week in Paris, I’m surprised by these conservative predictions. According to the World Athletics scoring tables, his 7:54.10 2-mile is roughly equivalent to a 3:25.91. Plus wasn’t this race changed from a mile to a 1500 so he could run a really fast time in the shorter distance? I think he runs 3:27 or better.
I was thinking sub 3:28 for Jakob, but he made a big deal that the Oslo track is not the best for running super fast, though he’s run 3:46 there. He also has made clear he is not close to wr shape for the 1500 and is not certain he ever will be. Jakob is such a straight shooter about everything. He’s going for a fast run and a pr, and he’ll get it, but that is it this time around.
Oh that is a very spicy field. Going to be controversial and say Nuguse and Katir are 2nd and 3rd til very, very late and then get rushed before the line after trying too hard to stay with Jakob for too long.
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
3. Cheruiyot
4. Hoare
5. Nuguse
6. Katir
I predict Katir and Cheruiyot race Jakob most aggressively with Katir being the last to lose contact with ~200 to go. Nuguse passes TC and MK late and is the only one to actually split slightly faster than Jakob for the last 300, albeit off ~2:48.2 at 1200 vs. ~2:46.8.
I agree with this, but I think Katir will just hold off the charging Yared and Tim will fall back slightly. Yared will be off this super fast pace, and he’ll pass several runners in the last 200, including Olli.
Putting Kerr up so high is really a good thought. His recent 800 shows that he has really got some good strength and speed prepared for this season. I would say:
1. Jakob 2. Tim 3. Nuguse 4. Kerr 5. Katir 6. Nordås
Considering what Jakob ran last week in Paris, I’m surprised by these conservative predictions. According to the World Athletics scoring tables, his 7:54.10 2-mile is roughly equivalent to a 3:25.91. Plus wasn’t this race changed from a mile to a 1500 so he could run a really fast time in the shorter distance? I think he runs 3:27 or better.
Keep in mind that 3:28.20 would be the fastest time run since Asbel Kiprop in Monaco 2015 and bump Jakob from 8th to 7th fastest all-time.
Wejo is more likely to spend a night without sleep wondering wha the hell your post means.
It’s a rare post by him that I’m actually able to decipher. He means shame on wejo for not including his homeboy Katir in the thread title. Wejo then implied he considers Katir one of the four favorites in the OP. This is an American-based website and Nuguse, Hoare, and Kerr all competed in the NCAA, which might explain why they’re in the title and Katir is not.
Oops! that was an oversight. I will retitle the thread.
Considering what Jakob ran last week in Paris, I’m surprised by these conservative predictions. According to the World Athletics scoring tables, his 7:54.10 2-mile is roughly equivalent to a 3:25.91. Plus wasn’t this race changed from a mile to a 1500 so he could run a really fast time in the shorter distance? I think he runs 3:27 or better.
Keep in mind that 3:28.20 would be the fastest time run since Asbel Kiprop in Monaco 2015 and bump Jakob from 8th to 7th fastest all-time.
Yeah, 3:28.20 would be a fantastic time. But Jakob just broke a record that had stood for more than 25 years (albeit in a distance that’s not often run). His PB is 3:28.32, and he seems to be on another level now. Even if the Oslo track is slower, I think he can run 3:27.50.
And none of them got as much traction as this one as I have a much better title.
3 pages in 1.5 hours.
Why not just merge the existing threads under a new title? That way you give credit to your loyal posters who broke the news first, and you declutter the board.
What does his mile in Oslo last year convert to? I believe him when he says the track is slow, compared to many others. That mile in 2022 was a time-trial kind of race, almost.
One other thing: Are the pacers good enough to do 1,51? Where is Sowinsky?
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
