Kipchoge Boston Course Record?

Conditions have so much to do with the outcome in Boston. If the conditions are good, he’ll get it for sure.

I agree that a record is not a given, but a sub 2:03 would not surprise me if the conditions are good. I ran Boston in 2011 and despite all of the of the "hurricane wind" conditions I keep hearing about, it didn't really feel all that windy to me. Perhaps some of the wind readings said there was a 20 mph tail wind at times, but on the ground (protected by trees/buildings) I would have guessed maybe an 8-9 mph tailwind (matching my pace). Regardless, it will be fun to watch this year. Doubt the great Kipchoge with caution!

Many of those were in years when there was a tailwind.

Totally (well, mostly) agree. What he runs on flat courses like Berlin, London, and Chicago AND with pacemakers is no clear indicator of what he can run on the hilly Boston course without them, and Mutai's record is a crazy outlyer becasue of the following wind. But he's still Eliud Kipchoge, so while that's an awful tough mark to beat, I won't say it's impossible on a day with good running conditions if he decides to give it a try. But he may instead just run it like an Olympic marathon, with a big push mid- to late-race.

Long range forecast (always suspect this far in advance) is for good temps but a modest headwind. Not real strong but it certainly would not help any.

Kipchoge will have to work hard to keep CJ off his heels.

There hasn't been anyone like Kipchoge before, Maybe Haile Gebrselassie but that's really it.

Mutui comes pretty close as he had the 3rd fastest Marathon time in history when he won Berlin in 2012 with a time of 2:04:15 which was the fastest marathon for the year. In 2011 he set course records in Boston and New York and then won NY again in 2012 in addition to his Berlin victory.

When Robert De Castella set the Boston course record in 1986 he too was the 3rd fastest marathoner in history and had previous set the world record in 1981 at Fukuoka. He was the #1 ranked Marathoner in 1981 and 1986.

There have been many other world class winners of Boston many whom won when they were ranked as the #1 marathoner in the world.

There have also been many world class marathoners whose Boston performances were lackluster.

The most unique thing about 2011 is that the temps stayed cool(ish), despite the strong tailwinds. Boston has strong tailwinds on occasion, but because they are coming out of the SW, they usually bring in hot temps, some years in the 80's F.
In some years the wind shifts into their face as they come down heartbreak hill, this is due to winds off the ocean which can be pretty strong during March and April! And those will always be cold winds, not what the legs want for the last 5 miles. This is not the fast course that many think, unless conditions are perfect as they were in 2011.

I am pulling for Kipchoge, and I hope he wins with a CR. However, Boston has been cruel to male Olympic Champions. Only one (Gelindo Bordin in ‘90) has beaten the “Boston Curse” in the history of the event.

I expect an exciting race but wonder how it will play out. 1. Kipchoge goes out and no one goes with him so we wait to see if he can hold on and try to catch sight of who might be in the chase pack. 2. Everyone goes with him but hides behind and dies one by one. 3. A big pack shares the pace and lead to get a fast race for everyone and there is no chase pack but the last miles are carnage. 4. Something else...? a young guy we never heard of? Kipchoge does not start? Drops out early? Or the great Patriots Day blizzard? This is why we are fans.
Tom

It will probably play out to how his two Olympic marathons were run: relax, go with the pack, then lay down the hammer, with no regards for time or course records but it's still a possibility.

This is correct, and Bordin was a monster. Kipchoge will find Boston very difficult. The nature of the course is something else. He should focus on the win, and forget about the time. I will be amazed if he wins! if he finishes under 2:09 that would be a good result. I think the final result will surprise a lot of people. Boston is never what you expect.

If the weather is good and not headwind he will fly over the hill going near his World Record.

The tailwind in 2011 was worth 3 to 4 minutes. None of the top finishers ever ran near their 2011 times again. Without the wind a 203 would be like a 159 in Berlin.

Yes Gelindo Bordin was strong , but we are talking of Eliud Kipchoge , that's like they are in two different category. Boston is hard but Eliud trains all year round from many years at 2400 m above sea level , on dirt and hilly routes . So I dont think hills are a problem for Eliud if he's still Eliud as I think he's despite the passing years. Anyway he's the marathon goat and he doesn't have to prove anything. We have to thank him that he still wants to compete today always looking for new goals.

Agree with this, but I think he'll keep an eye on the course record and go for it. The question will be; does he put the hammer down going up the Newton Hills (mi 16) or at the top of Heartbreak (mi 21)?

Yes right Geoffrey Mutai PB was in Berlin marathon 2:04:15 2012. Eliud Kipchoge PB in Berlin marathon is 2:01:09 3minute and 6 seconds faster than Mutai. So assuming that the 2011 Boston tailwind was worth about 3 minutes. Eliud should be able without tailwind to run very near the Boston course record. And yes with that 2011 tailwind Eliud no doubt would run around 2:00:00, about a minute lower than his PB at Berlin.

Ya, think he wants the win more than anything. He will play it safe for the W in 2:07/2:08.