I’m going to boldly state that in my unprofessional opinion it’s the coaching.
The way my potato brain breaks it dow…..
you have your 500 most naturally talented high school guys in the states.
In 1992 or whatever probably something absurdly low like 40 of those dudes lucked into a coach that had a good plan and knew what he was doing.
in 2023 I don’t know if it’s 150 or 350 but a astronomically higher number do now. Advances in training methods is big but by far the biggest is the internet. Any brain dead goober with internet can find a legit training plan In a fews hours.
A rising tide raises all boats. Of course shoes make a difference (think back to your first pair and compare to today...it should be better today, it's called progress). Think about it...instead of one outlier kid winning everything, several are closer and competition is stronger and everyone will get faster. If you have a teammate and you run the same workouts at a similar level, wouldn't you start to believe you can perform just as well as that 'better' teammate? Look at East Africans and how they train in groups. Not counting the few that choose to dope, it's no wonder you have some no-name dude that pops out a break-through race if he or she has been running with top level elites and maintaining the same training schedule. They almost have to be asking, 'why cant I do it too?' Kind of exciting times in my opinion.
This is the the point that needs to be made. An earlier post suggested that 'the shoes' would improve performance across the board. Female, male, various ages, rookie and pro alike. A later poster asks, "Why would you think that?" Because that entire spectrum is wearing 'super spikes'. That's why.
Of course, that first post was suggesting drugs are the primary answer to the OP's question. Yet, post after post dismisses drugs in high school and college athletes.... ironcially, the only categories on that whole running spectrum for which testing is non-existent. In demographics frequently tested - i.e. pro runners in pro events - today's times are actually slower than pre-effective-testing times. This is why The Top keeps mentioning Komen and El G. Why don't these spikes help runners of a similar caliber?
The events at which they hold very old records are right in the range of distances at which that the high school and college runners are turning heads. (But not necessarily breaking records. All of Newbury Park hasn't been able to get under Webb's outdoor mile record.) Those of you who theorize that the shoes in question are most peformance enhancing at 800-5k or even narrow it to 1500-2 mile are actually arguing in favor of The Top's point.
The exact range of distances at which the OP noiticed great depth by genetically European, 17-23 year old males in the United States (yes, the demographic producing the depth of performance prompting this thread really is that narrow) happens to be the exact range of distance at which the best runners in the world can't come close to 20 year old records. By the way, it is also a group entirely untested out of competiton - and very rarely in competition as may happen if an NCAA runner places highly in an open meet such as NBIGP or Millrose.
It's like when you strip the seats and the dashboard and everything else out of a touring car to make it go faster. These kids are 90 lbs, wearing space age shoes and doped to the hills.
Except roughly the same amount of men break 3:30 & 13:00 every year. And again, backwards compatibility is a thing you all keep ignoring.
What would El G run in the shoes?
What would Komen have run in the shoes?
2022 4 sub 3:30. 14 sub 13:00
2021 6 sub 15 sub 13
2019 1 sub 3:30 10 sub 13:30
2018 2 sub 3:30 8 sub 13:00
2017 2 sub 3:30 3 sub 13:00
2016 1 sub 3:30 4 sub 13
Yo don't notice like 2x the number of sub 3:30 and 50% more sub 13:00? Our current numbers look a lot more like the 90s than the 2010s....
Again are Komen and El G competing under 90s doping rules or 2022? Shoes might give Komen 8s but doping might cost him a dozen..
Keep young back further.
12 in 2000 6 in 2001. 7 in 2002. 13 in 2003. 11 in 2004. 17 in 2005. 19 in 2006. 8 in 2007. 6 in 2008. 15 broke 2009. 17 broke 13 in 2010. 13 athletes broke 13 in 2011. 16 athletes broke 13 in 2012. 7 in 2013. 4 in 2014. 6 in 2015. 4 in 2016. 3 in 2017. 8 in 2018. 10 2019 6 in 2020. 15 - 2021 14 in 2022.
2015 is tied for the best year in the last 17 seasons.
Yo don't notice like 2x the number of sub 3:30 and 50% more sub 13:00? Our current numbers look a lot more like the 90s than the 2010s....
Again are Komen and El G competing under 90s doping rules or 2022? Shoes might give Komen 8s but doping might cost him a dozen..
Keep young back further.
12 in 2000 6 in 2001. 7 in 2002. 13 in 2003. 11 in 2004. 17 in 2005. 19 in 2006. 8 in 2007. 6 in 2008. 15 broke 2009. 17 broke 13 in 2010. 13 athletes broke 13 in 2011. 16 athletes broke 13 in 2012. 7 in 2013. 4 in 2014. 6 in 2015. 4 in 2016. 3 in 2017. 8 in 2018. 10 2019 6 in 2020. 15 - 2021 14 in 2022.
2015 is tied for the best year in the last 17 seasons.
Yes back when drug testing was weaker people ran faster.... Now there also factors like if the 5k is a diamond level event and the like. Both 2021 and 2022 had sort of weird seasons between COVID and the timing of championships.
And note the number of positive tests in Kenya in 2021/2022 compared to the earlier years. Maybe they just started doping. Far more likely they were always doping. Plot up super shoes for Kenyans versus West Europe/aust/USA and for some reason one group has gotten better while the others haven't...
not only do the shoes let you run faster, they also are (supposedly) much better for recovering after workouts as well.
But to me the real key is when you add in the COMPOUND EFFECTS of 3 years of training in these shoes.. it's not just about today's race, but every workout you do is faster, for 3+ years (or however long the shoes have been out)..
When you say "kids" are you talking high school? (rule out drug) the others work.
Why would you rule out kids using PEDs in HS? After all, HS is when most kids first experiment with drugs. More and more high schoolers are cheating (academically) to get into prestigious colleges. Why not young student athletes? Whether it's sports or academia, kids pursuing the trappings of success (higher education, wealth, fame) face enormous peer pressure, competition, and expenses. PEDs offer students of sport a potentially very lucrative ROI. For HS athletes, particularly the intellectually challenged, PEDs can help secure tuition-free packages (often valued at 100K or more) with little up-front cost. Why risk your life on fentanyl-laced dope when PEDs are the future fast-track to prosperity? Poor kids don't want to rely on their low-income parents footing the bill or being saddled themselves with life-long college debt. I'm not encouraging anybody to take PEDs, but the temptation to cheat is becoming increasingly pervasive. I think kids are turning to drugs for more than just a quick high.
Are we really to believe that Nike made performance enhancing shoes that only work on amateur athletes?
I get your point and agree with it, but to be fair, wouldn't it be in Nike's interest for the performance enhancing shoes to work better for amateurs? They give the shoes away free to the pros. Amateurs are the ones buying them. Making amateurs faster increases demand with their paying customers.
When you say "kids" are you talking high school? (rule out drug) the others work.
Why would you rule out kids using PEDs in HS? After all, HS is when most kids first experiment with drugs. More and more high schoolers are cheating (academically) to get into prestigious colleges. Why not young student athletes? Whether it's sports or academia, kids pursuing the trappings of success (higher education, wealth, fame) face enormous peer pressure, competition, and expenses. PEDs offer students of sport a potentially very lucrative ROI. For HS athletes, particularly the intellectually challenged, PEDs can help secure tuition-free packages (often valued at 100K or more) with little up-front cost. Why risk your life on fentanyl-laced dope when PEDs are the future fast-track to prosperity? Poor kids don't want to rely on their low-income parents footing the bill or being saddled themselves with life-long college debt. I'm not encouraging anybody to take PEDs, but the temptation to cheat is becoming increasingly pervasive. I think kids are turning to drugs for more than just a quick high.
I would question how easy access is to endurance drugs in HS. Want some HGH, test, or whatever the popular steroid is, then yeah a local gym bro can hook you up. Want some EPO? Not sure how easy you can both get it and take it. One is also a couple hundred/month while my understanding is EPO is up in the thousands...
I have no doubt some kids are doping. But if it is enough?
Yo don't notice like 2x the number of sub 3:30 and 50% more sub 13:00? Our current numbers look a lot more like the 90s than the 2010s....
Again are Komen and El G competing under 90s doping rules or 2022? Shoes might give Komen 8s but doping might cost him a dozen..
Keep young back further.
12 in 2000 6 in 2001. 7 in 2002. 13 in 2003. 11 in 2004. 17 in 2005. 19 in 2006. 8 in 2007. 6 in 2008. 15 broke 2009. 17 broke 13 in 2010. 13 athletes broke 13 in 2011. 16 athletes broke 13 in 2012. 7 in 2013. 4 in 2014. 6 in 2015. 4 in 2016. 3 in 2017. 8 in 2018. 10 2019 6 in 2020. 15 - 2021 14 in 2022.
2015 is tied for the best year in the last 17 seasons.
Don't forget that after Mo Farah won his double gold in 2012, he pretty much dictated the pace of every big race for the next 5 years.