Anyway if the pacers fulfill their assignment (4:58 at 2k) it’s going to be less a matter of finishing kicks and more who’s prepared to run a really fast time. Based on Fisher’s 2022 indoor opener (12:53 with 4:59.97 for the last 2k) and the simple fact that he’s entered in this race, I figure he’s ready to run fast. I’m guessing 7:28.24 figures somewhere in his mind, since he’d probably like to reclaim the title of fastest American at 3k indoors or out.
Just because Fisher didn’t try to run away from the best in the world in the WC 5k doesn’t prove he’s unwilling to lead in the last 800 of a race like this. I predict he’ll break the rest of the field in the closing laps. Getting an unsavory reaction to my predictions, but it seems people are wont to forget Fisher clocked 12:53i/7:28/12:46/26:33 last year, and importantly, he almost always delivers.
One more thing: why should we believe this is a WR attempt? LetsRun describes it as such in their write-up, but concede that’s an assumption based on being told the pace would be set at 59/lap…but the start list has the pace slated for 2:29/K, so maybe “59” means sub-60. Please correct me if I’m wrong and there’s an explicit WR attempt stated somewhere.
This.
WR is hype. Hype works. The meet has been sold out for many weeks. People are talking it up.
Grant is there to race, just like everyone else. The time will be quick for sure.
Of course I am rooting for Grant. Wishing him strength, guts and speed!
If Fisher is going to do what he did at Worlds and just follow people and get out-kicked or has he learned from that so that he presses hard mid-race or throws in some killer surges or does something else to break the field before the final 200 or so? If he runs the way he has in the past, maybe he gets the WR, but someone else will out-kick him and get a faster WR. If he's learned and he's ready to mix it up before the final 200, then things could get interesting. I'll bet he gets out-kicked again, hope I'm wrong.
We can only hope he reads your post in time for the race.
The meet is indoors so I don’t believe there’s much to lose and he can be aggressive as he wants. The outdoor WC is far more import.
What do you reckon a healthy Jakob could run? 3:28.xx? I don’t think he even has to be 100% to run 3:30.59.
In an indoor race with good pacing (to 1,000 or 1,100), I have no question he could run 3:28 fresh. People kinda neglect to note that last year, his one real time attempt was the mile. He ran 600 from the front to close out the race, which is substantial outdoors. We kinda take for granted that El Guerrouj got 3 laps of perfect pacemaking in his mile World Record.
I think at 90-95%, he could take down his record. It seems like he’s somewhat unsure where he’s at, and that’s the only reason I’m skeptical for today.
What do you reckon a healthy Jakob could run? 3:28.xx? I don’t think he even has to be 100% to run 3:30.59.
In an indoor race with good pacing (to 1,000 or 1,100), I have no question he could run 3:28 fresh. People kinda neglect to note that last year, his one real time attempt was the mile. He ran 600 from the front to close out the race, which is substantial outdoors. We kinda take for granted that El Guerrouj got 3 laps of perfect pacemaking in his mile World Record.
I think at 90-95%, he could take down his record. It seems like he’s somewhat unsure where he’s at, and that’s the only reason I’m skeptical for today.
This is spot on! I just watched the mile world record this morning while on the treadmill (part of the weekly views in the library). Not only did he have two perfect pacers through 1200, he had Noah breathing down his neck which also helped, I'm sure, keep driving harder.
I’m with High hopes in regards to Katir: I’m not that impressed by his recent 3:35.48. Admittedly I’m judging based largely on the unreliable “eye test,” but he didn’t look that great to me as he struggled through the last lap after hitting the bell on 3:33-high pace. He looked more like the guy who was 7th in Lievin last year in 7:36.6i and only ran 3:34.95 before Eugene than the WC bronze medalist or Katir v.2021.
I’m going out on a bit of a limb (for someone wary of looking like a homer) and say Fisher gets the W in a new AR. Predictions:
1. Fisher 7:26.99
2. Girma 7:28.7
3. Krop 7:30.9
4. Balew 7:34.9
5. Katir 7:35.0
I’d probably swap Fisher and Girma but the top 3 are close imo.
Girma out-kicked Barega to win last year, has a history of performing well indoors, 7:27 PB, etc. He’s beatable but I like his chances.
Fisher always delivers and will clearly be ready to run fast tomorrow, but he doesn’t have the finish that Girma does. I think his best chance is to stick to the pacers until they drop, then push the last 1k hard and hope he doesn’t rabbit anyone to a record.
Krop had a slow start to his indoor season last year which is why I’m placing him 3rd, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he won. He’s coming off a 27:04 in Valencia (20 sec improvement from 2022) and clearly hit a new level this last outdoor season.
Katir has never impressed me indoors and Ndikumwenayo is a complete unknown. Maybe he’ll shock the world with another 7:25, but so far his 2023 results haven’t been anything to write home about.
I picked Girma to win but I didn’t think the world record was in play. Props to him doing the work after 1800.
Katir is back! I’m not going to apologize for doubting him since there was no reason to believe he was in this kind of shape, but I’m happy to be wrong about him. Hopefully he carries this form through outdoors.
Solid race from Krop but he was never going to win. I trust he’ll be ready to run fast this summer.
I expected more from Fisher, definitely sub 7:30 in this sort of race. Hope he gets things figured out before his next race. He’s not the only Bowerman athlete who’s looked off recently.
@SDSU Aztec - Fisher didn't seem to learn from his earlier races, did he? He keeps racing the same way at big meets and losing. So why would he learn from a post anyway (your premise)? If he's going to be conservative in big meets (again, your premise is there is a lot for him to lose), then why run them at all? He needs to be aggressive, whether indoors or outdoors, or he will lose every time. As he has been doing.
Oh, and thank you, Captain Obvious, for your comment about the Outdoor World Champs being far more important. I would have never guessed that at all if you hadn't so helpfully pointed it out.