OP:
I had a similar PR 10 years ago (14:11) but I've been competing ever since. I ran 2:20 9 years ago in my first marathon but it took me years trying to figure it out. I dabbled in ultras, trails, track, and took me forever to finally figure the marathon out until I ran 2:16 last month at 31yo with a full time job and a kid. I think I could give you some helpful tips if you want to run sub 2:32 by the end of this year.
1st- Make CIM 2023 your goal race. The course is fast and the weather will most likely be great.
2nd- I would spend this winter just focusing on building a base and staying healthy. I would do one hill workout a week and a long run for now. If you can comfortably get to around 60mpw (I recommend one day off) then start adding in more focused workouts. It's January, you have plenty of time.
3rd- Once you've actually "returned to running" by getting to 60mpw or more, I would start doing some threshold workouts in addition to your weekly hills/speed. One poster recommended a HM first, I think a spring HM would be smart. Getting up to decent mileage will drop some of the extra weight + once you're fitter you can start to run some faster paces in your workouts.
4th- Post Spring HM give yourself a little break and then try to build a bigger summer base. Don't overfocus on super difficult workouts as December is still a long way away. Maybe even focus on 5k and 10k stuff to re-develop your speed but try to get to 70-80mpw with down weeks every 4th week or so if you have that kind of time/drive.
5th- Finally, in the fall, if you really do have 3/4 of a year of rebuilding speed and base, you will likely be quite fit. Keep a weekly hill and/or 10k pace workout with either a Saturday HM/MP pace workout and a Sunday easy long, or a weekend LR workout with HM or MP as the focus. Longest I did for my last build was 24mi (did that 3 times) and longest run at MP was a 12mi tempo in an 18 mi run about 3 weeks out.
I think you can run sub 2:32 no problem with a full year committed to running. Depends how seriously you take it. If you just screw around off and on, you'll learn the marathon can be a cruel, cruel beast.