Did you read the title of this thread? Have you been watching the progression of times the last few years? I'd think either would make a rational person wary of making sweeping predictions about the future of track.
She’s been second twice in a row to Tuohy, and that will continue at indoor and outdoor Nationals. Even if Tuohy goes pro after this year, there are still young and rising stars on the women’s side like Natalie Cook who will challenge Valby for the win. Just don’t see it.
Glad you put this on the record. Now I can make fun of you a year and a half later.
I see it going 1 of 2 ways: 1) Valby and Tuohy both run the 3k/5k indoors, and 5k outdoors, with Valby winning one of their matchups. My shot in the dark prediction is Valby wins the 5k by a little bit over Tuohy, then Tuohy comes back and destroys the 3k field, then there's a big buildup to outdoors to see who wins the 5k, with Tuohy ultimately coming out on top.
2) Both run the 3k/5k indoors, but Tuohy runs the 15/5 and Valby runs the 5/10 outdoors. In this scenario, I see Tuohy winning 15/3/5/5 and Valby winning the 10. Every Valby and Tuohy race would come down to the last 50m though.
Bonus predictions that no one asked for: Both go sub-15 against each other in at least one race. Tuohy goes sub-4. Valby drops a 4:05. Both make a 2023 US team. Both make the 2024 Olympic team. Valby gets enough points for Florida to win a title. OP stays single for the rest of their life.
Lmao I think the only prediction I got right here was OP stays single for the rest of their life.
Tuohy ended up running the 3k/5k indoors and Valby ran neither (was she injured? I don't remember). Tuohy of course smashed everyone indoors. While I was right that Valby would win 1 out of the 3k/5k/5k, and Tuohy would win 2, I was completely wrong that they would both run all 3 races (Tuohy scratched the outdoor 5k, Valby didn't run 3k/5k indoors). I was at least right that there would be a big buildup to the outdoor 5k, but jeez, what a let down it was to have Tuohy scratch after finishing like 7th in the 1500. Neither even competed at USAs last year, much less made a team. It's looking like they'll both compete this year, but I don't think anyone is expecting Touhy to make the team.
I have no idea why in the first scenario I had Tuohy winning the 5k indoors, but in the 2nd scenario she'd win the 3k/5k. Apparently I wrote it at 2:30 AM though, so maybe that explains it.
I do remember that the 2023 Tuohy-Valby rivalry was really impactful on how optimistic I was on the best athletes competing against each other at their peak. I don't think they raced each other at all between 2022 XC nats and pretty late into the 2023 XC season. My predictions became a lot more conservative after NCAAs last year
She’s been second twice in a row to Tuohy, and that will continue at indoor and outdoor Nationals. Even if Tuohy goes pro after this year, there are still young and rising stars on the women’s side like Natalie Cook who will challenge Valby for the win. Just don’t see it.
This is the worst take ever. Tuohy is probably a once in a lifetime talent, the best of her generation right now at least. Parker was right there with her last year only running two days a week. You're crazy if you don't think she will get a title at some point.
Tuohy is a once in a lifetime talent? Lol. Parker will have by far the better career.
This is the worst take ever. Tuohy is probably a once in a lifetime talent, the best of her generation right now at least. Parker was right there with her last year only running two days a week. You're crazy if you don't think she will get a title at some point.
Tuohy is a once in a lifetime talent? Lol. Parker will have by far the better career.
I think labeling anyone as a ‘once in a lifetime’ talent is silly. Other than Usain Bolt (and Flo-Jo*) there really is no such thing.
Tuohy was an incredible collegiate/HS athlete who set multiple collegiate records and won numerous accolades.
Valby is also an incredible collegiate athlete who set even more multiple records and won more accolades.
Neither one is ‘once in a lifetime’ though; there are a ton of young HS athletes right now who will likely break all of their records. Look at this track season, the times being run are insane.
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