I suspect that running still has a situation like cycling did, where it's impossible to be elite without doping, so the more elites you have the more doping positives. Kenya is now coming to light because they're being targeted, but I don't think doping among elites is more rampant there than Ethiopia, Morocco, Uganda, Russia, Spain, etc.
Many of the few internationally competitive Americans have been under suspicion at some point (see Fancy Bears leak, which included another BTC athlete), which would make sense from this point of view.
Morocco and Russia have the same/worse status to the AIU as Kenya. They don’t have many good endurance athletes any more. Kenya has a thousand or so athletes and anti-doping is doing a good job. Drug testing works. These busts are good, just keep testing the best athletes more. When they admit wrongdoing, incentivize them to describe who procured the drugs and so on. It is true if you trust Fancy Bears the sophisticated doping theory is there with US and European athletes who toe the line perhaps but avoid getting busted. In general, doping is harder to get away with than most here assume.
No. The numbers show that only a small fraction of the cheats get caught. For example, we have seen that blood doping directly in-competition at worlds 2011 and 2013 was 15 - 18%.
Athletes caught blood-doping at Worlds in 2011: 0
Athletes caught blood-doping at Worlds in 2013: 3
Plus, you can deduce based on the published data and the and size of team US, that 14 - 17% of our athletes used blood doping there. If those, 0 were caught, not just then, but until today!
Source: doi 10.3389/fphys.2020.00160
As for why blood doping is so easy, read Ashenden (doi 10.1007/s00421-011-1867-6):
Our treatment regimen elicited a 10% increase in total haemoglobin mass equivalent to approximately two bags of reinfused blood. The passport software did not flag any subjects as being suspicious of doping whilst they were receiving rhEPO.
Thus, those flagged as in the IAAF's tiny likely doping list are just some of the worst offenders.
Your theorizing and your numbers I believe are about suspicious levels in the blood more than that being the exact method of doping. Blood doping requires sophistication and resources. Ultimately if testing was so easy to beat the Russians wouldn’t have cheated the tests they just would’ve doped with impunity. You wouldn’t have whereabouts failures if you believe it’s due to fear of tests. Can you beat the tests with lot of resources, sophisticated micro dosing and so on? I suspect yes, but that isn’t the full-blown doped to the gills stuff. These tests are working and our good. The number of busts backs it and I suspect if we saw the ABP data we’d see even more evidence that even most likely dopers are on the verge of getting caught
Can you beat the tests with lot of resources, sophisticated micro dosing and so on? I suspect yes, but that isn’t the full-blown doped to the gills stuff.
You don't need to be sophisticated, if of the 102 in-competition blood dopers in Daegu 2011 exactly 0 got caught back then (see Table 3). But yes, I would love to see the ABP data.
Also note that I just mentioned blood doping. To safely use steroids for example, you need to be more sophisticated, yes.
His majesty King Hassan II created AMAD in 13 janvier 2021.
There is a women at the head of it and they signed the last week sponsor contracts.
Tuesday October 18, 2022 Opening of the meeting of the Administrative Council of the North African Regional Anti-Doping Organization
Mr. Chakib Benmoussa, Minister of National Education, Primary Education and Sports, chaired, Tuesday in Rabat, the opening of the works of the meeting of the Administrative Council of the North African Regional Anti-Doping Organization. In a speech on the occasion, Mr. Benmoussa stressed that holding this meeting in Morocco constitutes an opportunity to express the importance that the Moroccan government attaches to the North African Regional Anti-Doping Organization and its determination to create a new dynamic in the consolidation of healthy sports practice. He said that the North African Regional Anti-Doping Organization expresses the will of the five Maghreb countries to make the world of sport clean, create a dynamic against doping and respond to the expectations of the public and athletes regarding the ethical values of sport. Mr. Benmoussa stressed that doping is a complex problem that involves social, economic and even political issues, and undermines basic sporting values including health, fairness and equal opportunities, adding that indulging in performance-enhancing substances not only harms athletic competitors, but also affects their health. All components of the sports system. In this regard, he explained, anti-doping rules reinforce the values associated with responsible sport and establish an ideal system for all competitions. He highlighted that the creation of the Moroccan Anti-Doping Agency is an affirmation of Morocco's tireless interest and preoccupation with combating doping and expressing its firm and strong will to engage with international bodies and its willingness to abide by the Olympic principles and ideals in order to develop an effective national anti-doping sports policy. It is also, according to Mr. Benmoussa, a strong testimony to the Kingdom's commitment to international bodies and its willingness to engage in Olympic values and ideals in order to adopt a credible national anti-doping policy. In the same context, he recalled that Morocco had ratified the UNESCO Convention, had adopted the World Anti-Doping Code and had adapted its legal arsenal to complement the necessary measures to deal with this global scourge. He stressed that consolidating the principles of practicing clean and responsible sport also requires the adoption and implementation of education, training and sensitization programs for the benefit of athletes or coaches, the adoption of means to avoid resorting to doping in sports events and the preventive approach to protecting against doping among young people and adolescents, especially through school and university sports. The Minister concluded that the texts and procedures are certainly an important step in the fight against doping, but the normative framework is not an end in itself, but rather the actual work that must clarify and translate the Kingdom’s commitments, which is the task entrusted to the young Moroccan Anti-Doping Agency, which is independently called to Identification of effective measures and mobilization for their implementation in order to achieve the set goals and effectively reflect Morocco's commitments. The program of the meeting of the Administrative Council of the North African Regional Organization for Anti-Doping includes in particular the presentation of the report of the organization’s office and its activities for the 2021-2022 season and the presentation of anti-doping activities for the same season in each member country of the organization, as well as the work plan and budget for the year 2023. Regional Anti-Doping Organizations are appointed by member countries to coordinate the actions of the World Anti-Doping Agency at the regional level.
There are currently 12 regional organizations comprising 119 countries from Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and Oceania (four organizations are in Africa). (And with 10/18/2022)
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to believe Kipchoge is natural….
Yeah, the hard part with that is, he has to have been beating the dope tests for the last 20 years.
Or to go post-Lance Armstrong, then he has to have been beating the dope tests for the last 10 years.
And if either one of those are the case, then he's apparently not sharing his dope test beating secrets with those around him.
Of course, he may well have a system that can beat the dope tests and has been doing it for the last 10 or 20 years. That is possible.
Lance Armstrong did get away with it for 7 years, but it's not like he never tested positive. He did; as I understand it was in 1999. He just had a fake (backdated) TUE and UCI let him off the hook.
Contrary to Armstrong’s repeated claim that he never tested positive, it was widely reported at the time that he tested positive for a corticosteroid during the 1999 Tour. But he was not sanctioned because the team produced a prescription from one of its doctors indicating that Armstrong had received it in a cream used to treat a saddle sore.
Other reports say he tested positive 4 times in '99 during the Tour. And in another event in 2001, which was thrown out.
And I guess according to Tyler Hamilton, he got away with it all of those other years because UCI didn't want to catch him. I suppose his story was too good for business to have it stop.
Anyway, with Kipchoge it is possible that he is doping and is not an "outlier", or whatever term people come up with when they don't want to admit that one of their favorite runners may be doping.
But then again, can anyone else run 2:01 consistently?
Because if all it takes is doping and super shoes, then there should potentially be maybe a dozen or more guys who can do that, one would think. And why isn't Adidas getting in on that game. I'm sure they'd love to have someone who can sell $300 shoes for them.
Of course, in reality there seems like there's only 2 or 3 people (maybe) on the face of the planet who can do what he does.
So yeah, Kipchoge may well be doping, but who else on the planet can do what he's doing anyway? Doping or otherwise.
I mean, a 2:10 guy, or even a 2:08 or 2:06 guy, doped to the gills can't run that fast, can they? I assume you have to already be sub-2:05 or sub-2:04 to even think about running like that.
Or maybe doping will take that much time off for a 2:08 or 2:06 guy, I really wouldn't know.
As for the number of Kenyans getting caught for doping. Are they doping to beat the Europeans and Americans, or are they doping to beat other Africans?
Because I guess I look at it as, the ones who are getting caught are already faster than most (if not nearly all) of the Europeans and Americans. So they're doping in order to beat the people that they train with (the other Africans) that they know that they need that extra bit of edge or they're not going to beat them.
Or, of course, everyone on the planet may be of equal or near-equal running ability. I don't particularly subscribe to that belief, but it may be possible.
And last, the argument that the ones getting caught are largely the only people in the world doping is entirely possible. But then you have to throw out the argument that most of the pros are doping. Because if most of the pros are doping, and the people from the same region of the world are winning all the time, then well...
And last, last: what I had said about Kipchoge is how I still believe in him.
If he's clean, then no worries.
And if he is doping, then I'd like to see someone else do what he's doing. Because if all it takes are super shoes and dope, then... where is everybody else at?
This is becoming like cheating on your taxes. Many do it but only the less sophisticated are getting caught.
Every single one of them is on something. Some get lucky or some are a tad bit smarter like Sir Mo by hiding in his bathroom. Just imagine the preposterous notion that there are 'clean' winners who beat a sea of cheaters.
You missed the point that blood doping in that ‘11 and ‘13 study referred to all enhancement of red blood cell levels . That includes EPO and any number of doping techniques. Ultimately, busting a doper in one test in-competition may not be easy/likely but beating the tests time and time again is hard. Out of competition tests can’t be planned for as easily and they are unpredictable as far as regimen. Thus you need to be sophisticated and have resources as I said. There’s a reason the mid and low-tier Kenyans get busted at the highest rates. Most to gain not being huge moneymakers and fewer resources to dope with any levels of sophistication.
Every single one of them is on something. Some get lucky or some are a tad bit smarter like Sir Mo by hiding in his bathroom. Just imagine the preposterous notion that there are 'clean' winners who beat a sea of cheaters.
And if he is doping, then I'd like to see someone else do what he's doing. Because if all it takes are super shoes and dope, then... where is everybody else at?
You need training and doping to get the most out of your body, whatever that is based on your talent.
Look at it this way: if Kipchoge is doping, then he is 2 minutes ahead of the doped 2:03 runner. That is quite an outlier, a super talent.
If he is clean, he could likely run 1:57 - 1:59 doped. But then, why is there no doper running 2:00 or sub-2, and only 1 person ever running 2:01? Then Kipchoge would be a super extreme outlier, a freak super talent of the century.
I knew his $100,000 win Abu Dhabi was too good to be true, but for a different reason (the course was short). Now his whole career appears to be a fraud.
White US athlete gets busted: "Shee ate a bad burritoo. Buy some Teeeee-Shirts, FRee ShlBy! Free Shelby! Here's a link to her GoFundMe! Shee's been wraaanged!"
IIRC, the authors of the Ashenden et al paper quoted also emphasize that they did not flag anyone while they were receiving the treatment, but many blood dopers do get caught with high OFF-scores after the EPO treatment when they have a high hemoglobin count with a suppressed production of new red blood cells.