Is America a declining power?

Definitely in decline.

This country has a long history of not caring about its workers, and is openly anti-democratic in order to protect profits over people. The senate and supreme court block or roll back policies popular with the majority of people (health care, housing, childcare, lower prescription drug prices, climate policy, paid family leave). We might continue to be the dominant economic and military power for the foreseeable future, but how much do those indicators matter when weighed against decreasing life expectancy and quality of life for the average American. Our backslide into authoritarianism is well under way, and the system is designed to deny us a voice in our rights. Unless you measure "in decline" as "our military getting smaller", there's no way we're not in decline.

The neo-liberal and neo-conservative projects in the US have run their course and no longer provide a future for the US economy and for US foreign policy. Since Reagan busted the unions and Clinton signed NAFTA (and welfare reform), the US as sent its manufacturing base abroad and now finds that it is vulnerable to trade disruptions due to COVID and the actions of authoritarian governments (Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's oppression of the Uyghurs and threats against Taiwan, etc.). Trading off our manufacturing base for an economy based on global finance and Silicon Valley tech has resulted in a massive upward shift in wealth in the US, leaving severely diminished prospects for the average worker who know has to string together gig economy and service sector jobs just to be able to survive (assuming they live somewhere where that is an option). That has allowed an opening for the authoritarian right (Trump and friends) to threaten the existence of US as a unified democracy. Domestic politics have all but ground to a halt with neither party having the ability to advance their agenda through legislative action (Biden's BBB flopped, Trump's promised repeal of Obamacare also failed).

Abroad, authoritarian governments are beginning to form an axis against the US and its allies. When Russia invaded Ukraine, authoritarian leaders like Modi and Bolsinaro saw no reason to stand on the side of international law and saw an opportunity to get cheap oil from Russia while gaining standing on the world stage instead of being under the boot of US interests. And the EU and the US are still beholden to international energy markets for their domestic economies despite decades of warnings on global warming and repeated price shocks in oil markets due to political instability. Despite giving the Saudis billions in weapons, the US had no influence over OPEC to boost production to counter the recent spike in energy prices.

There is nothing "3rd world" about the USA. I've been to about 40 states and the only thing that even remotely resembles 3rd world are some of the Native American Reservations. It is truly sad to see how some of them are living. I've been to a few places in the Middle East where people drink from, wash clothes in, bath in, and even dump their sewage in the same canals. We were forbidden from drinking anything but bottled water because any local water would be tainted. I've seen schools where the urinal was a long trough that angled slightly down toward the wall, where a brick was missing and the urine would simply run out into a giant fly-infested puddle outside. Garbage just PILED in the streets. I'm not talking about some litter; in places it looked like a few garbage trucks just dumped their loads on the ground. But there were no garbage trucks. The piles were the result of people just throwing their garbage in the street for generations. Rodents were everywhere. Disease was everywhere. I received vaccinations against diseases that haven't existed in the USA in decades.

And sadly there are even worse places in the world.

You must have been born in Beverly Hills with a silver spoon in your mouth. Trust me, no part of the USA is anywhere near "3rd world."

How anyone could watch the events unfolding in Ukraine and believe this is beyond me. If we've learned anything it's that national interest and material resources are still king in the year 2022. Despite everyone saying "Russia is just a big gas station" and " Russia has the GDP of Belgium" it turns out that a gas station that powers most of Europe is a pretty important thing. That India, China, and most African nations are still trading with Russia should be an indicator as to how far this 'international cooperation' will go when it gets down to brass tax.

Absolutely a declining power. Our biggest cities are no different than impoverished third world countries. Trash and homeless covering every inch with the smell of urine emitting throughout the cities. Our military, though likely still the strongest, is not feared like it once was. Russia, China, and North Korea mock our military every chance they get. Over half the country does not have a dime of savings. These aren't signs of a flourishing country. We are declining. In fact, as a friend of mine says, "we are watching Rome fall."

From a historical standpoint it is interesting to watch. You don't always get to see the world's superpower collapse first hand. That's why I'm planning to leave the country in the next 5-7 years. I won't be here when the bell tolls.

This is pure LetsRun gold.

My house is paid off. I have no debt. My retirement is full funded. Government spending, at levels never seen in history of the world, will not impact my life. It will impact yours.

The only reason Russia, China and North Korea mock the USA, is because that's all they can do. You'll notice the reason Russia didn't mock Ukraine was because Russia thought could walk over them. Well they found out they couldn't.

If Russia, China and North Korea thought they could walk all over us, they would without the mocking. But they can't. So what we get to hear from the paper tigers is mocking, propaganda, bluster and bravado.

They might be our enemies, but they're not suicidal. Iran on the other hand...?

I genuinely appreciate this thoughtful response, but I think the data you've provided (i.e., Ukraine/Donbas or the resources of particular global districts) only supports the long-term idea that arbitrary national borders will erode. We'll probably still have loci of power, but it's unlikely that we'll demonstrate them by the "my colors is better than your colors" concepts of nationhood.

Also, please bear in mind that I'm looking at the long-long game, not the next five(ish) years.

Hey, I see a grammar Nazi here! Congratulations! The Third Reich will be sending you your Iron Cross with Oak Leaf Clusters very soon! Sieg Heil!

The working age (15-64) population in China already peaked in 2015, and is steadily declining. Their demographic problem is even worse than in USA and Western Europe.

A big difference is that their net migration is negative. (About -0.2 per thousand.) Unlike USA and Wetsern Europe, China is not an attractive destination for most immigrants.

It is amazing how many "patriotic" Americans are working very hard to erase this big advantage we have over China.

Our founding fathers did a remarkable job in setting the framework of our country. However, they weren’t infallible, and some of their mistakes are finally rearing their head and will continue to chip away at our exceptionalism.

That said, America will still be a superpower during my lifetime and the lifetime of my ancestors.

true story: Non other than Thomas Jefferson, lord of the US small-governmenters...at one time speculated that the US Constitution should be tossed out every 20 years or so and begun again.

In other words, the spiritual founder of US conservativism realized the Constitution had mistakes and compromises and would not apply to many parts of the nation, down the road.

The writers of the Constitution were painfully aware of its compromises and errors. They did not hail it as a miracle document like 'conservatives' do now.

yeah this giant catastrophe RU is going through in UKR will be understood for generations as a 'don't F with NATO/USA'

RU won't be able to sell much of their gear anymore, it having proven not up to par.

Exactly.

This is just the Francis Fukuyama "End of History" thesis. What has occurred to make this seem more likely now than in 1992 when this was written? To my eyes the 2008 recession, Brexit, Covid induced inflation and supply chain issues, Russia-Ukraine, and China-Taiwan, are all indicators of a world that is crumbling under increasingly complex supply chains. Throw some geopolitics into the mix and you've got a stew going here. Geopolitics will always exist because it's the avenue of competition for people with different interests. Taiwan isn't dangerous to China because of its powerful military, it's dangerous because in the event that there is serious political conflict within the CCP, the group who can get the Taiwanese and their parallel institutions on their side is likely going to take power. We see that happen over and over in history, there will always be class factions with different interests than the ruling party and as long as there are nearby territories or provinces with parallel institutions of government those will be used as a backstop should sh*t hit the fan.

If you make an elementary mistake when calling others idiots, you're getting called out for it.

While immigration is a huge benefit to us, the plurality of the our population gives us diverse thought, diverse ideas; there's something to be said for having a billion people who all think and act exactly the same way. That makes it very easy for China to identify a problem and then fixate that huge mass of humanity on that problem.

Need more people, they can fix that quickly. Also, they are NOT squeamish about human rights, they won't let something like a conscience get in the way.