What we seem to be forgetting is the impact of 90' temps on athletes mental and physical comfort. That may have been a 12:4X effort/expenditure. Every athlete in the race knew any erratic or poor use of energy before 4k was likely doom. I agree with most that over the last 800m someone should have made Jacob more uncomfortable. In the moment athletes to make hard choices and don't want to sacrifice silver or bronze still believing in their kick for gold.
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
And when will you get cool weather at World's or Olympics? Not in Rio, Beijing, Doha, Tokyo, Eugene, Seoul. Maybe Moscow was a bit cooler in 2013, maybe London in 2012 or 2017. Maybe Budapest next year, but who knows? Tokyo in 2025 will be hot. Then in 2027 and 2029, the losing bids this year (for 2025) will be considered, Silesia, Poland could be cool, Nairobi, Kenya will surely be chosen for one of them, and it has an average high temperature of 23-24 degrees Celsius, 73-75 degrees Fahrenheit, pretty good (low of 11 celsius or about 52F) in July-August, and is at some altitude, 4k, while Singapore would be hot and humid.
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
Barega has closed in low 53 and Cheptegei showed in the 10,000m that he can also get in that range for a kick. I don't think Jacob's last lap is significantly faster than what those guys can normally do but they were just non-factors for whatever reason in the final. in 2004, ElG closed in 52 in a slower paced race so yeah, I'd agree in that case but I don't think Jacob has the same speed he did
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
Barega has closed in low 53 and Cheptegei showed in the 10,000m that he can also get in that range for a kick. I don't think Jacob's last lap is significantly faster than what those guys can normally do but they were just non-factors for whatever reason in the final. in 2004, ElG closed in 52 in a slower paced race so yeah, I'd agree in that case but I don't think Jacob has the same speed he did
Speed and strength both play into closing ability. Guys like Barega and Cheptegei don’t finish well because they are fast but because they are strong. Make the race slow enough and they will lose every time to athletes who are weaker at 5k but have much better 200/400 speed.
Ingebrigtsen may not have the wheels El G did (though he has never been considered much of a speed demon), but he is definitely faster than any 5k/10k specialist. In a slow race he will win every time. The trouble is, he’s also really strong, meaning that even with a fast pace he can hang with the top guys and still kick for the win.
Compared to the current strategy they are employing where you could have the gold medal ceremony for Jakob before the race even starts? It doesn't have to be predictable either, surge for 500/600/700m and then back off for a bit before going again. He won't know which moves are serious and if he wants to lay 30 yards off the pace then keep pressing and make him work to catch up.
Watch the 5,000, Jakob immediately moves from his customary last place start once he sees Cheptegei go to the lead. Its not a DL time trial, I don't think he is willing to let guys get too far away from him in a global final, especially when some of them have run 12:35/12:43/12:46 etc.. Especially at it gets later in the race, surging with 1,600-2,000 to go, he will have to respond, maybe less so to an early lap move.
In the Eugene weather the day of the final, he would have known they couldn’t maintain 61 pace from the start of the race, so he would given them some room and ran them down at the end. If they made a surge from 1600m out, he would have covered it and still won.
He was the best runner in the race and I don’t see any strategy the East-Africans could have used to prevent him from winning.
Just like before with Mo Farah the East Africans simply laid it in the hands of the speed based runners, like Jakob.
I would've loved if they made the last 2k very hard like previous Diamond League races where they string out the field. Cheptegei could've laid off the pace early on and push the pace towards the end, opening the chance for other athletes to perform well.
Barega has closed in low 53 and Cheptegei showed in the 10,000m that he can also get in that range for a kick. I don't think Jacob's last lap is significantly faster than what those guys can normally do but they were just non-factors for whatever reason in the final. in 2004, ElG closed in 52 in a slower paced race so yeah, I'd agree in that case but I don't think Jacob has the same speed he did
Speed and strength both play into closing ability. Guys like Barega and Cheptegei don’t finish well because they are fast but because they are strong. Make the race slow enough and they will lose every time to athletes who are weaker at 5k but have much better 200/400 speed.
Ingebrigtsen may not have the wheels El G did (though he has never been considered much of a speed demon), but he is definitely faster than any 5k/10k specialist. In a slow race he will win every time. The trouble is, he’s also really strong, meaning that even with a fast pace he can hang with the top guys and still kick for the win.
maybe...but i guess my point was that I thought the 5k guys would at least give him a run were not even close.
i.e., in 2004 El G had to pass Bekele in the final 50m and had to go sub 53 to beat Bekele. Jacob just barely broke 54 with no one near but normally you see Barega and other 5k specialist go in that mid-53 range. I don't think it's a given that Jacob is going to always win a kick but for whatever reason in this race, it wasn't even close was the surprise to me
Speed and strength both play into closing ability. Guys like Barega and Cheptegei don’t finish well because they are fast but because they are strong. Make the race slow enough and they will lose every time to athletes who are weaker at 5k but have much better 200/400 speed.
Ingebrigtsen may not have the wheels El G did (though he has never been considered much of a speed demon), but he is definitely faster than any 5k/10k specialist. In a slow race he will win every time. The trouble is, he’s also really strong, meaning that even with a fast pace he can hang with the top guys and still kick for the win.
maybe...but i guess my point was that I thought the 5k guys would at least give him a run were not even close.
i.e., in 2004 El G had to pass Bekele in the final 50m and had to go sub 53 to beat Bekele. Jacob just barely broke 54 with no one near but normally you see Barega and other 5k specialist go in that mid-53 range. I don't think it's a given that Jacob is going to always win a kick but for whatever reason in this race, it wasn't even close was the surprise to me
Yeah I see what you’re saying. I expected them to be closer too and we know they can finish better than they did. Still, I think Ingebrigtsen had another gear and would’ve won regardless. He’s almost as strong as the top 5k guys and also much faster. It’s a winning combination.
Barega has closed in low 53 and Cheptegei showed in the 10,000m that he can also get in that range for a kick. I don't think Jacob's last lap is significantly faster than what those guys can normally do but they were just non-factors for whatever reason in the final. in 2004, ElG closed in 52 in a slower paced race so yeah, I'd agree in that case but I don't think Jacob has the same speed he did
Speed and strength both play into closing ability. Guys like Barega and Cheptegei don’t finish well because they are fast but because they are strong. Make the race slow enough and they will lose every time to athletes who are weaker at 5k but have much better 200/400 speed.
Ingebrigtsen may not have the wheels El G did (though he has never been considered much of a speed demon), but he is definitely faster than any 5k/10k specialist. In a slow race he will win every time. The trouble is, he’s also really strong, meaning that even with a fast pace he can hang with the top guys and still kick for the win.
Barega's superpower was his ability to close in 53 even off a hard pace, he had raw speed. He's lost that this year. He's still run good times, but the devastating close has vanished. It's a little baffling
Barega's superpower was his ability to close in 53 even off a hard pace, he had raw speed. He's lost that this year. He's still run good times, but the devastating close has vanished. It's a little baffling
Full indoor season plus a hefty race schedule this year. I suspect this is a blip.
Remember that 3:50 won the men's 1500 OG in 2016. Equivalent to the best women's times, slower than the WR in 1930. Ludicrously slow times happen even in the top meets.
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
Fred Kerley would beat Yakob in any distance according to your logic lmao
Perhaps they just weren't feeling that good - Chep went to the front for first 1.2k but backed off after that.
None of them had any choice! They tried to run their normal controlled pace of 62/63 but the heat jumped right up and bit them. I splained on the Jakob water break thread how this works. Jakob just hung back going as easy as possible until they blew up.
Did anyone consider having this race after sunset? They do that in the Eugene DL meet sometimes.
Speed and strength both play into closing ability. Guys like Barega and Cheptegei don’t finish well because they are fast but because they are strong. Make the race slow enough and they will lose every time to athletes who are weaker at 5k but have much better 200/400 speed.
Ingebrigtsen may not have the wheels El G did (though he has never been considered much of a speed demon), but he is definitely faster than any 5k/10k specialist. In a slow race he will win every time. The trouble is, he’s also really strong, meaning that even with a fast pace he can hang with the top guys and still kick for the win.
Barega's superpower was his ability to close in 53 even off a hard pace, he had raw speed. He's lost that this year. He's still run good times, but the devastating close has vanished. It's a little baffling
This! Not gonna lie, I was pretty disappointed in his performance. When in shape, I think he's as close to Bekele as you can get. He could close a 26:40-50 race in like 53 seconds.
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