Not related to Mantz specifically, but what’s the explanation for a guy like Iliass Auoani, who was I think a solid low stick in XC, but not a title contender, running 2:08:34.
A few things I haven’t seen mentioned yet regarding Mantz’s debut:
- Pro: Mantz is already 25 or 26, with many years of running under his belt, so this isn’t similar to a 22 year old debuting. He has experience.
- Pro: Mantz has run a ton of mileage and hard 20 milers over the past 3 or 4 years. All of his logs are public. I believe he consistently runs over 110mpw on only six days running per week. Basically, he’s been marathon training the past few years already.
- Con: Mantz’s form (especially arm carriage) isn’t very efficient. He looks bouncy, and if his arms don’t relax I don’t see it translating well in the marathon. The half is a completely different animal as it is only a 1hr race, but that form could really sabotage him over the course of 2+ hrs.
He'll run 2:07-2:08 if he does Chicago, 2:09-2:10 if NYC. He's a high mileage guy. He's been cranking out 100+ miles for years. Moving up to the Marathon won't be a big jump for him.
A few things I haven’t seen mentioned yet regarding Mantz’s debut:
- Pro: Mantz is already 25 or 26, with many years of running under his belt, so this isn’t similar to a 22 year old debuting. He has experience.
- Pro: Mantz has run a ton of mileage and hard 20 milers over the past 3 or 4 years. All of his logs are public. I believe he consistently runs over 110mpw on only six days running per week. Basically, he’s been marathon training the past few years already.
- Con: Mantz’s form (especially arm carriage) isn’t very efficient. He looks bouncy, and if his arms don’t relax I don’t see it translating well in the marathon. The half is a completely different animal as it is only a 1hr race, but that form could really sabotage him over the course of 2+ hrs.
His arm carriage is what would worry me too, especially it is out of balance (one of them crosses the front of his body while the other one doesn't). I would be afraid of the injuries associated, kind of like with Ritz
A few things I haven’t seen mentioned yet regarding Mantz’s debut:
- Pro: Mantz is already 25 or 26, with many years of running under his belt, so this isn’t similar to a 22 year old debuting. He has experience.
- Pro: Mantz has run a ton of mileage and hard 20 milers over the past 3 or 4 years. All of his logs are public. I believe he consistently runs over 110mpw on only six days running per week. Basically, he’s been marathon training the past few years already.
- Con: Mantz’s form (especially arm carriage) isn’t very efficient. He looks bouncy, and if his arms don’t relax I don’t see it translating well in the marathon. The half is a completely different animal as it is only a 1hr race, but that form could really sabotage him over the course of 2+ hrs.
His arm carriage is what would worry me too, especially it is out of balance (one of them crosses the front of his body while the other one doesn't). I would be afraid of the injuries associated, kind of like with Ritz
Runners sometimes do that if one foot is a bit larger than the other or if one leg is a bit longer.
I think Mantz is easily capable of a low 2:09 or hight 2:08 but a lot can happen in a marathon and weather plays a big role.
If I had to wager I would say 2:08:55 in good conditions. I think he has much more potential over time but I don’t think he’ll go sub 2:08 in his first 26.2 mile race.
CIM does not attract global elites nor has it drawn all the top American runners outside of when it was the USA Marathon Championship in ‘17 and 2018.
Ken Martin won CIM in 1984 in 2:11 and later finished second at the ‘89 New York Marathon in 2:09:38. He’s the strongest winner. i can think of.
CIM is a pretty fast course but not outrageously so and the weather can be bad because it is held in early December and it often rains, is windy and can be chilly. I chuckle when so many detractors post about it on Let’s run like it is somehow gonna turn a 2:15er into sub 2:10.
Relax.. he won't debut in 2:08, please be realistic.. He might hang with Reed Fischer in 2:10-11.
Are you serious? He’s a very strong runner and is currently in probably in about 13:05 shape A lot of runners have ran fast in their debuts and 2:10-11 would feel easy to him. I would put the over/under at 2:08 if he were to compete on a fast, certified course.
Let's get back to this after the marathon, I will be right. He might go for 2:08 or whatever, but will fall short. Not due to lack of potential, but due to this being his first marathon and inexperience.
Are you serious? He’s a very strong runner and is currently in probably in about 13:05 shape A lot of runners have ran fast in their debuts and 2:10-11 would feel easy to him. I would put the over/under at 2:08 if he were to compete on a fast, certified course.
Let's get back to this after the marathon, I will be right. He might go for 2:08 or whatever, but will fall short. Not due to lack of potential, but due to this being his first marathon and inexperience.
I've blogged about this on here before, but Mantz NEEDS to get the half marathon record before he loses his footspeed
Galen Rupp missed his chance and now he no longer has the legspeed to do it
The HM isn’t even an Olympic distance so why does he need to get the AR? With his 26:33 and super shoes, Fisher could take the record down right now but it might be years before he runs one and Rupp never took the distance seriously during his prime.
I hope they don't teach him to time this it. Let him race. He shows grit so far. But the American male usually show up to qualify for Olympics/World Championships. The talent is there to be challenging. They need to stop looking at their Garmin and determining "I'm going to fast and going to crash". Teach the men to race the marathon. Hopefully Mantz moving up will bring a change to how they're approaching the marathon during majors.
This is actually why Ryan Hall was not good at marathon racing. He would race emotionally, always going out with the leaders, and almost always crashing and burning. Let's hope Mantz is one of the smart racers, who runs with heart and brains, and maximizes his potential.