Jakob is one of the most talented middle distance runners In history. He just needs to get his 800m down 1 second. his 5k is strong enough for 1500m world record. His issue is speed.
Don't forget the shoe conversion. A 13:02 is more like 13:17 without the shoes a couple of years ago. This is the new normal, but it important to have context and not make this out to be something it is not.
He is talented and hard working. No doubt he could run ~13:20 early season without specific track sessions, but he is certainly doing threshold / VO2 type intervals regularly and strides to keep his speed pretty sharp.
Super spikes are probably somehow beneficial for sub-elite athletes (say 13:30 - 14:00 range), with the advantage being mostly due to increased comfort, which delays muscular pain. I'd estimate this benefit in 1-2"/km, with the 10k at the upper edge.
For true elites, who are muscularly prepared at the highest level, the advantage is negligible. Otherwise, we would have seen the best milers run 3:25-3:26 in 2021. Instead they kept running 3:28 as they did every year before super spikes era.
We'll see...This year is the more appropriate year to assess. Last year, the lone "fast" 5,000 on the circuit had a lower-on-form Cheptegei, Jakob (who is still improving at 5,000), Gebrhiwet on low rest and after finishing out of the Ethiopian team, and then Katir/Ahmed/Knight. A good, but not great field. At Monaco for the 1500, you had Cheruiyot managing an injury, Jakob coming off a bad illness, and then you were missing Kerr, Kipsang, Wightman and so on. The best guys ran their fastest at Tokyo in the third round which is unusual. This year with COVID more under control, and it being Worlds not Olympics I wonder if we see faster times all around from 1500-5000.
Super spikes are probably somehow beneficial for sub-elite athletes (say 13:30 - 14:00 range), with the advantage being mostly due to increased comfort, which delays muscular pain. I'd estimate this benefit in 1-2"/km, with the 10k at the upper edge.
For true elites, who are muscularly prepared at the highest level, the advantage is negligible. Otherwise, we would have seen the best milers run 3:25-3:26 in 2021. Instead they kept running 3:28 as they did every year before super spikes era.
We'll see...This year is the more appropriate year to assess. Last year, the lone "fast" 5,000 on the circuit had a lower-on-form Cheptegei, Jakob (who is still improving at 5,000), Gebrhiwet on low rest and after finishing out of the Ethiopian team, and then Katir/Ahmed/Knight. A good, but not great field. At Monaco for the 1500, you had Cheruiyot managing an injury, Jakob coming off a bad illness, and then you were missing Kerr, Kipsang, Wightman and so on. The best guys ran their fastest at Tokyo in the third round which is unusual. This year with COVID more under control, and it being Worlds not Olympics I wonder if we see faster times all around from 1500-5000.
Super spikes are probably somehow beneficial for sub-elite athletes (say 13:30 - 14:00 range), with the advantage being mostly due to increased comfort, which delays muscular pain. I'd estimate this benefit in 1-2"/km, with the 10k at the upper edge.
For true elites, who are muscularly prepared at the highest level, the advantage is negligible. Otherwise, we would have seen the best milers run 3:25-3:26 in 2021. Instead they kept running 3:28 as they did every year before super spikes era.
We'll see...This year is the more appropriate year to assess. Last year, the lone "fast" 5,000 on the circuit had a lower-on-form Cheptegei, Jakob (who is still improving at 5,000), Gebrhiwet on low rest and after finishing out of the Ethiopian team, and then Katir/Ahmed/Knight. A good, but not great field. At Monaco for the 1500, you had Cheruiyot managing an injury, Jakob coming off a bad illness, and then you were missing Kerr, Kipsang, Wightman and so on. The best guys ran their fastest at Tokyo in the third round which is unusual. This year with COVID more under control, and it being Worlds not Olympics I wonder if we see faster times all around from 1500-5000.
We'll see fast times that could only marginally depend on super spikes. Don't forget wavelight tecnology and the insane amount of fast races/time trials that are being organised now, compared to Mo Farah era. I believe that super spikes have created a sort of collective hysteria where everyone wants to take every opportunity to exploit the alleged benefit and run a massive PR.
Don't think that we'll see some so out-of-this-world performance to say "ok, the spikes makes you actually 15 seconds faster on a 5k".
not sure how fast but i worked out from their documentary exactly where they do it and according to the gradients given by online maps, the gradient is 6.8% on average. starts low at like 4% then during a large part of the middle of the stretch its about 8% before going back down to about 5.5%
Keep it coming Wigins, we've got a full thread of your bad Jakob takes elsewhere on these boards just waiting for more additions :)
Just one example, from 2017:
You wrote that when his PR was 13:35 :) . He would go on to drop a full 47 seconds.
"Just one example?" If you have a sick enough obsession to compile a thread on someone, even game the "voting" system, why hide it? Don't get all weird and twisted for nothing.
to help your English skills, if Jakob was running 13:35 five years ago, he wasn't at his peak, which was last year when he was 20. Go ahead and scrounge around for little things to cherry-pick in bold face if you think that's some sort of big win.
Here is your statement from 2018, Bad W:
Kid phenoms are early peakers, that's the only way to be so good at such a young age. They are done by the time they are 20. That's when Ryun set his PR's. Mary Cain was already over the hill. Nigel Amos ever sub 1:42 again, not a chance. From 3:31 Jakob will get to 3:29. Maybe 3:28, no further. People don't understand he is already just about at his limit.
Spot on on NiJel Amos, who has run 1:41 the next year. Let's wait about your Jakob prediction.
You are definitely one of the most ridiculous posters on this board. Let's wait for your next "prediction".
Super spikes are probably somehow beneficial for sub-elite athletes (say 13:30 - 14:00 range), with the advantage being mostly due to increased comfort, which delays muscular pain. I'd estimate this benefit in 1-2"/km, with the 10k at the upper edge.
For true elites, who are muscularly prepared at the highest level, the advantage is negligible. Otherwise, we would have seen the best milers run 3:25-3:26 in 2021. Instead they kept running 3:28 as they did every year before super spikes era.
We'll see...This year is the more appropriate year to assess. Last year, the lone "fast" 5,000 on the circuit had a lower-on-form Cheptegei, Jakob (who is still improving at 5,000), Gebrhiwet on low rest and after finishing out of the Ethiopian team, and then Katir/Ahmed/Knight. A good, but not great field. At Monaco for the 1500, you had Cheruiyot managing an injury, Jakob coming off a bad illness, and then you were missing Kerr, Kipsang, Wightman and so on. The best guys ran their fastest at Tokyo in the third round which is unusual. This year with COVID more under control, and it being Worlds not Olympics I wonder if we see faster times all around from 1500-5000.
Fast 5k races are a rarity most seasons so that's hardly grounds to dismiss last year's results. If you want to play that game then we'll need to look back on the pre-dragonfly years and make adjustments, because in basically any given year it will be true that not everyone who could have run a fast time did. I think it's worth mentioning that we didn't see faster times all around in 2019 and 2020 either, so I'm not sure why you think this year will be any different.
You're also failing to account for athletes who were already at the top of the world before the super spikes were released. Take Barega as just one of many possible examples. He was paced to 12:43 in 2018 (no super shoes), and in 2020 finished 2nd behind Kiplimo in 12:49 after going out hard and taking over when the pacers dropped. That is a believable result for someone in low 12:40s fitness. What is not believable is that he actually ran more like 12:57 and the spikes made up the difference.
If we see a massive drop in times this year I'll concede that the shoes are having a significant impact. Until then, I have no reason to believe they are providing anything close to 1.5 seconds per kilometer (or any of the other outlandish numbers being thrown around).
not sure how fast but i worked out from their documentary exactly where they do it and according to the gradients given by online maps, the gradient is 6.8% on average. starts low at like 4% then during a large part of the middle of the stretch its about 8% before going back down to about 5.5%
Very based and autistic. Could you give the coordinates? And do you know the paces he runs for his 3 minute, 6 minute, and 400m reps?
Keep it coming Wigins, we've got a full thread of your bad Jakob takes elsewhere on these boards just waiting for more additions :)
Just one example, from 2017:
You wrote that when his PR was 13:35 :) . He would go on to drop a full 47 seconds.
"Just one example?"
Go ahead and scrounge around for little things to cherry-pick in bold face if you think that's some sort of big win.
Sure thing, here are some more 'scrounged' posts for you. First, you saying Jakob is too big to run a fast 5k or 1500:
Off that pace the 3:30 1500 speedster Jakob gets punked at 200 to go and can't haul the little guy in. Jakob was going as fast as he could, the edge burned off his kick. There is no way he gets near 12:50 at his current level. And he'd be a fool to try, because he's too big to run that fast a 5000, but just barely not too big to run a 3:30 1500, which is still better than a 12:50.
Then, you saying he would never beat Filip (11/2019)
That's right. Kid phenoms burn their candle at both ends. Peak as a teen, then leave the scene. Won't even beat Filip!
And you saying he was done after his 3:30:
Jakob is done. Ties up and fades! He's peaked.
You and Subway have delighted in calling this accomplished young man washed and overrated for years now, while making wild predictions for others, like, for example, Augustine Choge (who has run 2:20 for 26.2).
Only 800+ GOAT Augustine Choge has the potential to [break the record], however he has already moved up to HM, where he promptly went sub 60 and will more probably run the first 2:01 than bother with 26:17.
I don't mean to shame you, only attempt to show you your biases on this man.
He does double threshold (tuesday and thursday) with usually one of those being track (1 each of those days=2 a week). At least thats how I heard the norwegian system is.
A threshold workout can be 20-25x400m at threshold lactacte, which could be around 5k pace.. So lots of "speed work". But since its only 400m it is still threshold lactacte level and heart rate.
Listen to "Conversations about running" podcast with another elite runner Simen Halle, whose grandpa was one of the guys that implemented the system. He explains it well.
So when Jakob says no speed work or whatever, he probably means really really fast stuff (1500m).
400s @ 5K pace with :30R is a hard workout and going to be well over 3.2 mmol, regardless of what meter you're using.
The hills are akin to VO2 max work 6-8 mmol and they are doing 4K of that work weekly. The speed work he's talking about is their 400-300-200s at 5k-1500m pace which they are probably going to start two months out from Worlds, so next week.
For Norwegians, this seems to be just the icing on the cake. He still can easily close faster than almost all 5k runners, especially in a meet like Friday, but he will need the speed work to close out the likes of the Ethiopians and Kenyans over 1500m/3000m during the season.
Im curious...why do a zillion 400s at threshold pace? You would have to keep the rest super short to keep the HR up at threshold level and keep track of a heck of a lot of reps? Isnt it easier to do 800s or 1200s for the purpose of the workout? I mean some do it straight through..2,3,4,5 miles? Are a lot of MD runners doing 60-70 sec efforts for threshold runs?
400s @ 5K pace with :30R is a hard workout and going to be well over 3.2 mmol, regardless of what meter you're using.
The hills are akin to VO2 max work 6-8 mmol and they are doing 4K of that work weekly. The speed work he's talking about is their 400-300-200s at 5k-1500m pace which they are probably going to start two months out from Worlds, so next week.
For Norwegians, this seems to be just the icing on the cake. He still can easily close faster than almost all 5k runners, especially in a meet like Friday, but he will need the speed work to close out the likes of the Ethiopians and Kenyans over 1500m/3000m during the season.
Im curious...why do a zillion 400s at threshold pace? You would have to keep the rest super short to keep the HR up at threshold level and keep track of a heck of a lot of reps? Isnt it easier to do 800s or 1200s for the purpose of the workout? I mean some do it straight through..2,3,4,5 miles? Are a lot of MD runners doing 60-70 sec efforts for threshold runs?
really about 10km pace - 63-64 (30sec recovery). Covering the range with the longer 1km repeats at 2.45 (66's) with 1minute recovery, and the longer 2km/6min at 2.55-3.00/km (or thereabouts) with 1-2min recovery.
Last summer did some 400's much faster (with longer recovery) at 1500m pace and faster in sets. presumably as an extension of the 300's they normally did at about 1500m pace.
I assume that some of this came from Marius Bakken, but Grete Waitz also did workouts of 25x300m (15-20sec recovery) and 2x15x200m (10-15sec recovery/5minute set recovery) presumably at a threshold-type pace/effort level. This was back in the 1970's.
I tend to agree with you that spikes' impact is overstated. Last year definitely had fewer loaded races/fields. Already looking at the Pre/Doha startlists, I think we are going to have more big-name matchups. Whether that manifest in fast races at 5,000 we shall see. But last year the big names at 3K/5K just weren't racing that often outside of Kenyan/Ethiopian Trials for the Africans, and then some of the 1,500 guys (McSweyn, Jakob, Jakob) did compete more often.
400s @ 5K pace with :30R is a hard workout and going to be well over 3.2 mmol, regardless of what meter you're using.
The hills are akin to VO2 max work 6-8 mmol and they are doing 4K of that work weekly. The speed work he's talking about is their 400-300-200s at 5k-1500m pace which they are probably going to start two months out from Worlds, so next week.
For Norwegians, this seems to be just the icing on the cake. He still can easily close faster than almost all 5k runners, especially in a meet like Friday, but he will need the speed work to close out the likes of the Ethiopians and Kenyans over 1500m/3000m during the season.
Im curious...why do a zillion 400s at threshold pace? You would have to keep the rest super short to keep the HR up at threshold level and keep track of a heck of a lot of reps? Isnt it easier to do 800s or 1200s for the purpose of the workout? I mean some do it straight through..2,3,4,5 miles? Are a lot of MD runners doing 60-70 sec efforts for threshold runs?
Doing a lot of 400’s at 10k pace with short rest allows you to achieve a threshold stimulus while running a faster pace. You don’t get threshold benefits from running threshold faster. You get the benefit from doing more. You can run fast by doing shorter reps while not going over threshold.
400s @ 5K pace with :30R is a hard workout and going to be well over 3.2 mmol, regardless of what meter you're using.
The hills are akin to VO2 max work 6-8 mmol and they are doing 4K of that work weekly. The speed work he's talking about is their 400-300-200s at 5k-1500m pace which they are probably going to start two months out from Worlds, so next week.
For Norwegians, this seems to be just the icing on the cake. He still can easily close faster than almost all 5k runners, especially in a meet like Friday, but he will need the speed work to close out the likes of the Ethiopians and Kenyans over 1500m/3000m during the season.
Im curious...why do a zillion 400s at threshold pace? You would have to keep the rest super short to keep the HR up at threshold level and keep track of a heck of a lot of reps? Isnt it easier to do 800s or 1200s for the purpose of the workout? I mean some do it straight through..2,3,4,5 miles? Are a lot of MD runners doing 60-70 sec efforts for threshold runs?
What is the difference between a 400 and 1200? Speed.