Gianni, not Jos
randiddld wrote:
NERunner03533 wrote:
Mutai was on another level in 2011 pre-super shoes. His 2:05 CR in NYC is on another level. Bekele & Kandie could get after it on the right day. Temps look good on Sunday but could be windy. They went through halfway in 2011 in 1:03 in a pack of ~10. With so many majors this fall, I doubt there are even 6 guys that could do that in this field. My $$$ would be on a 1:05-1:06 front half & then someone running 1:03ish to win in 2:08-09.
Totally agree on Mutai, that was a special race in 2011.
But windy. Where are you getting that from? 7mph is what they have now. That's a breeze at most.
Checked the weather before I posted & it said gusts up to 20. If that's not true then it'll be near perfect for running. I still think there just isn't the depth needed to go after the 2:05 NYC CR. You need a group willing to go out in 1:03-flat & then hope someone is feeling good enough to break things open.
Mutai's 2:05 has to be one of the best marathon performances ever. 2:05-flat at NYC without super shoes. Gotta be worth 2:02ish. Mutai ran out of his mind 2010-2011. 2:04-high in Rotterdam, 2:05-low in Berlin. Both 2nd place finishes. Then the Boston & NYC CRs back to back. One of the biggest Olympic marathon snubs of all-time. He DNFd Boston in the nonsense heat in 2012. The Kenyan federation told him he needed to race. Kind of makes sense why everyone goes to London in the spring now.
Ummmm...what???
Anyways, here's the hourly forecast for tomorrow. 5 mph is the maximum wind speed. The temp is great! Go Bekele!
Time Conditions Temp. Feels Like Precip Amount Cloud Cover Dew Point Humidity Wind Pressure
9:00 am SunnySunny 45 °F 43 °F 2 % 0 in 11 % 33 °F 63 % 5 mph NNE 30.44 in
10:00 am SunnySunny 48 °F 46 °F 1 % 0 in 11 % 33 °F 57 % 5 mph NNE 30.44 in
11:00 am SunnySunny 51 °F 50 °F 1 % 0 in 10 % 33 °F 51 % 4 mph NE 30.43 in
12:00 pm SunnySunny 51 °F 51 °F 1 % 0 in 9 % 33 °F 50 % 3 mph ENE 30.42 in
1:00 pm SunnySunny 53 °F 53 °F 0 % 0 in 12 % 31 °F 44 % 2 mph NE 30.40 in
2:00 pm SunnySunny 54 °F 54 °F 0 % 0 in 13 % 30 °F 40 % 2 mph NE 30.37 in
3:00 pm SunnySunny 54 °F 54 °F 0 % 0 in 9 % 29 °F 38 % 2 mph ENE 30.35 in
4:00 pm SunnySunny 54 °F 54 °F 0 % 0 in 10 % 30 °F 39 % 3 mph E 30.33 in
5:00 pm SunnySunny 53 °F 53 °F 0 % 0 in 16 % 32 °F 43 % 3 mph E 30.32 in
6:00 pm ClearClear 52 °F 52 °F 0 % 0 in 18 % 33 °F 48 % 2 mph E 30.32 in
7:00 pm ClearClear 50 °F 50 °F 1 % 0 in 17 % 34 °F 53 % 3 mph E 30.32 in
8:00 pm ClearClear 49 °F 49 °F 1 % 0 in 18 % 34 °F 56 % 2 mph E 30.33 in
9:00 pm Mostly ClearMostly Clear 48 °F 48 °F 2 % 0 in 26 % 34 °F 58 % 2 mph ENE 30.32 in
10:00 pm Partly CloudyPartly Cloudy 48 °F 48 °F 2 % 0 in 31 % 34 °F 59 % 2 mph NE 30.32 in
11:00 pm Partly CloudyPartly Cloudy 47 °F 47 °F 3 % 0 in 33 % 34 °F 59 % 2 mph NE 30.31 in
NERunner03533 wrote:
randiddld wrote:
Totally agree on Mutai, that was a special race in 2011.
But windy. Where are you getting that from? 7mph is what they have now. That's a breeze at most.
Checked the weather before I posted & it said gusts up to 20. If that's not true then it'll be near perfect for running. I still think there just isn't the depth needed to go after the 2:05 NYC CR. You need a group willing to go out in 1:03-flat & then hope someone is feeling good enough to break things open.
Mutai's 2:05 has to be one of the best marathon performances ever. 2:05-flat at NYC without super shoes. Gotta be worth 2:02ish. Mutai ran out of his mind 2010-2011. 2:04-high in Rotterdam, 2:05-low in Berlin. Both 2nd place finishes. Then the Boston & NYC CRs back to back. One of the biggest Olympic marathon snubs of all-time. He DNFd Boston in the nonsense heat in 2012. The Kenyan federation told him he needed to race. Kind of makes sense why everyone goes to London in the spring now.
Just checked the weather as well and posted the hourly. Gusts up to 20 mph? I don't see that anywhere. What source are you getting that from as I just looked at 4 different sources on weather for NYC.
NERunner03533 wrote:
randiddld wrote:
Totally agree on Mutai, that was a special race in 2011.
But windy. Where are you getting that from? 7mph is what they have now. That's a breeze at most.
Checked the weather before I posted & it said gusts up to 20. If that's not true then it'll be near perfect for running. I still think there just isn't the depth needed to go after the 2:05 NYC CR. You need a group willing to go out in 1:03-flat & then hope someone is feeling good enough to break things open.
Mutai's 2:05 has to be one of the best marathon performances ever. 2:05-flat at NYC without super shoes. Gotta be worth 2:02ish. Mutai ran out of his mind 2010-2011. 2:04-high in Rotterdam, 2:05-low in Berlin. Both 2nd place finishes. Then the Boston & NYC CRs back to back. One of the biggest Olympic marathon snubs of all-time. He DNFd Boston in the nonsense heat in 2012. The Kenyan federation told him he needed to race. Kind of makes sense why everyone goes to London in the spring now.
P.s. As I had already posted before you, 1:03 flat and Bekele can do it. You don't need a large group for that to be accomplished. See the video George Malley posted on Bekele. Bekele and 2 others can easily accomplish that if they choose to.
randiddld wrote:
NERunner03533 wrote:
Checked the weather before I posted & it said gusts up to 20. If that's not true then it'll be near perfect for running. I still think there just isn't the depth needed to go after the 2:05 NYC CR. You need a group willing to go out in 1:03-flat & then hope someone is feeling good enough to break things open.
Mutai's 2:05 has to be one of the best marathon performances ever. 2:05-flat at NYC without super shoes. Gotta be worth 2:02ish. Mutai ran out of his mind 2010-2011. 2:04-high in Rotterdam, 2:05-low in Berlin. Both 2nd place finishes. Then the Boston & NYC CRs back to back. One of the biggest Olympic marathon snubs of all-time. He DNFd Boston in the nonsense heat in 2012. The Kenyan federation told him he needed to race. Kind of makes sense why everyone goes to London in the spring now.
P.s. As I had already posted before you, 1:03 flat and Bekele can do it. You don't need a large group for that to be accomplished. See the video George Malley posted on Bekele. Bekele and 2 others can easily accomplish that if they choose to.
Agree for sure. With a near windless day and Bekele's days numbered, he's surely capable of a 2:05. Kinda surprised more don't see it that way.
dimerquarter wrote:
randiddld wrote:
P.s. As I had already posted before you, 1:03 flat and Bekele can do it. You don't need a large group for that to be accomplished. See the video George Malley posted on Bekele. Bekele and 2 others can easily accomplish that if they choose to.
Agree for sure. With a near windless day and Bekele's days numbered, he's surely capable of a 2:05. Kinda surprised more don't see it that way.
I don’t see it that way. It’s not like he’s been building for 6 months and aiming to peak for this race. He just ran Berlin, like less than a month and a half ago, and even for THAT race he said it wasn’t a good build. Now he’s gonna turn around and run the course record at NYC? Even with his talent , the betting odds would say no.
And another thing - it’s so odd to hear him say stuff like (I’m paraphrasing) “I should have done a longer build up, I need to give the marathon more respect”. I’m a father of three with a full time job and even I build properly with my slow as crap time. And it’s not like he has just moderate expectations or anything, he was literally saying he wanted the WR, but then admitted he didn’t prepare the way he should have. This is Kenenisa Bekele, the distance GOAT! Just kinda strange right?
Very true. They keep coming up with excuses to make him still look relevant.
Let me tell you for sure that_ Bekele will not win NYC Marathon
mbai haule wrote:
Very true. They keep coming up with excuses to make him still look relevant.
Let me tell you for sure that_ Bekele will not win NYC Marathon
He may or may not, no one knows for sure, just that he's capable of it. To post "Let me tell you for sure..." is a false statement as you can't know that. Carry on;)
randiddld wrote:
mbai haule wrote:
Very true. They keep coming up with excuses to make him still look relevant.
Let me tell you for sure that_ Bekele will not win NYC Marathon
He may or may not, no one knows for sure, just that he's capable of it. To post "Let me tell you for sure..." is a false statement as you can't know that. Carry on;)
He’s got as good of a shot as any of the top 3-5 guys. With weather like that, he may bounce back quicker than most think. He’s broken 2:02, so yeah-there’s that.
The slower the pace for the first 15 miles, the more likely Bekele wins in that final 10k. I just don’t see anyone going out alone to push the pace, and that plays into Bekele’s strength. Nobody is beating Bekele if he’s at the front going into Central Park.
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