Kipchoge reveals his next goal after leaving marathons (Ultras)

I'm 25 wrote:

His body, heart and lungs can handle it. He is mentally stronger than anyone currently doing ultras. If he was working 50-100% harder (in some objective sense--calories or METs) than some MUT veteran on some technical ascent in a 100k, he'd STILL win. His long distance running proficiency absolutely extends to ultras.

^^^Found the never run a mountain ultra guy.

For his marathon ability to be nullified, the race would have to be so long or so technical that it would be more about sleep deprivation or orienteering for others to gain advantages over him.

Ummm... so pretty much the entirety of the discussion so far surrounds this, no? There is little doubt he could crush Comrades and/or other road events like the World Championship 100k. Translating that to rugged mountain terrain isn't as easy as A, B, C... some are able to do so easily, others not so much. Ask Camille.

Brianruns10 wrote:

This guy would absolutely demolish the Comrades.

There is some chance he runs into fueling/hydration issues but I would expect just about and road course under 100km would be very likely for any sub 205 guy who is close to that peak (not when they are 50). Let's not forget what a washup AlSal did the one time he ran it. As you move away from what makes these guys great there is always a chance they are lacking something that matters a lot more when running 12 hours versus 2.

I have no idea which of the Kenyans would turn out to be the best ultraguys. But I bet when you start seeing races with 50k prizes for winning, you will find a steady stream willing to try.

fkkfkfkfkf wrote:

Brianruns10 wrote:

This guy would absolutely demolish the Comrades.

There is some chance he runs into fueling/hydration issues but I would expect just about and road course under 100km would be very likely for any sub 205 guy who is close to that peak (not when they are 50). Let's not forget what a washup AlSal did the one time he ran it. As you move away from what makes these guys great there is always a chance they are lacking something that matters a lot more when running 12 hours versus 2.

I have no idea which of the Kenyans would turn out to be the best ultraguys. But I bet when you start seeing races with 50k prizes for winning, you will find a steady stream willing to try.

^^^Salient points. In my experience/observations, translation from marathon cred to ultras across different distances is something like:

*50k - near 100%, adding 5 miles is a drop in the bucket

*50M-100k - lower but still high, maybe 75%. Note many of the 100k WC contenders have marathon backgrounds

>100k thru 100M - a complete 50/50 crapshoot, marathon cred is either your greatest strength or greatest weakness, depending...

>100M - none, management of sleep depravation trumps everything

There is no doubt East Africans, as a whole, could excel in ultras of certain types. Which exact EA's is the question. Once past 50k I'd more likely bet my money on "B-team" types (2:10ish) over "A-team" types (sub-2:05),

Over the Hills and Far Away wrote:

^^^Salient points. In my experience/observations, translation from marathon cred to ultras across different distances is something like:

*50k - near 100%, adding 5 miles is a drop in the bucket

*50M-100k - lower but still high, maybe 75%. Note many of the 100k WC contenders have marathon backgrounds

>100k thru 100M - a complete 50/50 crapshoot, marathon cred is either your greatest strength or greatest weakness, depending...

>100M - none, management of sleep depravation trumps everything

There is no doubt East Africans, as a whole, could excel in ultras of certain types. Which exact EA's is the question. Once past 50k I'd more likely bet my money on "B-team" types (2:10ish) over "A-team" types (sub-2:05),

I also would bet the star is likely to be a 210 guy. But if that is because there are 10x as many of them or I the 2:05 guys are just too fast is something I wouldn't hazard a guess on....

^Found the guy who vastly overestimates the difficulty of hiking uphill.

"Rugged Mountain Terrain" GTFO embellishing these races for country club yuppies. It's an endurance test, not rock climbing. If you can do it in running shoes, Kipchoge will beat you at it.

I'm 25 wrote:

^Found the guy who vastly overestimates the difficulty of hiking uphill.

"Rugged Mountain Terrain" GTFO embellishing these races for country club yuppies. It's an endurance test, not rock climbing. If you can do it in running shoes, Kipchoge will beat you at it.

It's not just about hiking uphill. Moving for 24 hours, through the night, maybe with some rain or a thunderstorm, you need to know when to have the right clothes on and what nutrition you need.

I am happy to run a rugged 100 miler against Kipchoge anytime. My chances of winning are higher than 50% I think.

And Camille was a good example. She finally finished Western States 100 as a midpacker after many tries.

Exqueeze me?

Roadrunnerhoney wrote:

I'm 25 wrote:

^Found the guy who vastly overestimates the difficulty of hiking uphill.

"Rugged Mountain Terrain" GTFO embellishing these races for country club yuppies. It's an endurance test, not rock climbing. If you can do it in running shoes, Kipchoge will beat you at it.

It's not just about hiking uphill. Moving for 24 hours, through the night, maybe with some rain or a thunderstorm, you need to know when to have the right clothes on and what nutrition you need.

I am happy to run a rugged 100 miler against Kipchoge anytime. My chances of winning are higher than 50% I think.

And Camille was a good example. She finally finished Western States 100 as a midpacker after many tries.

You hit all the talking points of someone who thinks Kipchoge wouldn't outpace them if he had to wear a hydrapack or stop to put on a jacket.

Roadrunnerhoney wrote:

I'm 25 wrote:

^Found the guy who vastly overestimates the difficulty of hiking uphill.

"Rugged Mountain Terrain" GTFO embellishing these races for country club yuppies. It's an endurance test, not rock climbing. If you can do it in running shoes, Kipchoge will beat you at it.

It's not just about hiking uphill. Moving for 24 hours, through the night, maybe with some rain or a thunderstorm, you need to know when to have the right clothes on and what nutrition you need.

I am happy to run a rugged 100 miler against Kipchoge anytime. My chances of winning are higher than 50% I think.

And Camille was a good example. She finally finished Western States 100 as a midpacker after many tries.

Are you seriously comparing Camille to the marathon GOAT?

Mickeyooo wrote:

TMADDDHASFNE wrote:

Expect Great Things!!!

Kipchoge should do the follwing:

1: Set the 50K road record

2: Set the 100K road record

3: Comrades record

4: Go after Matt Carpenter's Pikes Pieak records

5: Go after Jim Walmsey's Western States record

6: UTMB record

7: Hardrock record

8: Javelina Jundred record

9: 24 hr record

10: Train a week with David Goggins

11: FKT Pacific Trail

12: FKT Appachian Trail

13: Spartathlon record

He could NEVER do all of that and it would mostly be pointless anyway.

It’s hilarious to imagine him chugging along on the Appalachian Trail, though.

I’d like to see him “legitimize” the 50k World Best for starters. The current mark is 2:42:07 set earlier this year by Ketema Negasa, a 2:11 marathoner, which works out to 2:16:49 Marathon pace. I’m pretty sure Kipchoge could knock 8-12 minutes off that mark (2:30-2:34) if he decided he wanted to now, which I’m sure he won’t.

Walmsey vs. Kipchoge in a WR-chasing clash at 100k is the stuff LetsRun dreams are made of.

Curious_Cat wrote:

Are you seriously comparing Camille to the marathon GOAT?

...and her running style, build etc is the unlikliest of gnarly trail runners

Firstly, glad that Negasa took the 50km WR back, after Magawana's long 34 yo record was broken on the track with pacers. Ridiculous, typical IAU, given that road and track records are not the same at 5km, 10km etc,.

Anyway, it is a very soft record. Magawana ran it en route in Two Oceans 56km. For those familar with that route, it crosses the Table Mountain Range twice, firstly along the coast over Chapman's Peak (200m), then down to sea level, and over Constantia Nek, with a brutal climb at 44-46km.

The US soft record chasing slut broke it by a minute on a track with pacers, then Negasa just broke it at altitude

I would give Kipchoge an easy warm down jog after a 2:02 and he would break it by about 14min.

You don't usually make jokes like this.

Heard somewhere that Galen Rupp moved to Flag. If so, he surely must bump into Walmsley and other ultra guys training.

I think Galen should do Comrades like AlSal and after that ultras like Kipchoge.