beingaguy wrote:
Bahahaha. I love how you are basing this off zero facts. Just a "feeling" you have and a time he ran 2 years ago that was almost identical to the time he ran today (and probably worse than ADG when you factor 5 previous races in blistering hot weather in Tokyo).
Yep keep dreaming!
morningwateryBM wrote:
If Lyles goes 19.3x in the next few years, regardless of in a one-off or at a champs, then my "far higher ceiling" is spot on.
If he doesn't, then you're right.
ADG doesn't have 19.3x in him. Ever. He's just not that kind of runner. Lyles having run a 19.5 two years ago, indicates he very well COULD have that in him, assuming the last two years were a training mess for him more than others.
If today's 19.52 is the best Lyles can muster as a "max" over the next four years? Then sure, he and SDG will have some good head to heads, and I was an idiot.
But I still see 19.3x capability in Lyles, so I'm sticking to my "far higher ceiling" comment. If he goes there in the future, ADG can't follow.
So there is this thing here, where in your process of disagreeing with morningwater guy, I think you're implying that *his* feeling isn't of value.
Which is fine, especially when accompanied by other reasoning in support.
But, the way you did it, in bold, ends up reading as if intuition *in general* has no value....which is absolutely not the case. The move is reminiscent of the current trend of "what's your source?", phrased and used as if anything that isn't a quantitative, pure reviewed, published scientific study has no value at all....an atrocious epistemic mindset.
Intuition (gut feeling) is often incredibly powerful, and indeed is often one of the major differences between people of high or genius ability in a given area.
Their intuitions are much more likely to be accurate, and/or effectively narrow the space of what is being considered in a meaningful and useful way. Intuition will obviously hold much less weight than say, a well conducted, high powered RCT with a large effect size. But it should NOT hold *zero* weight.
Indeed, how much weight it holds will be heavily dependent on whose intuition it is. Whether morningwater has intuition that deserves more than most infinitesimal sliver of weight is a different question altogether.