Hocker isn't in the race. No record.
Hocker isn't in the race. No record.
2016OTfan wrote:
Ingebrigtsen is a doper, who cares.
I love those unsubstansiated claims. From people with superior knowledge. No evidence at all, but they don't care. May be some kind of heavenly inspiration.
If Jakob is doping, Cole Hocker is 1000% doping. I actually believe Hocker is more likely doping than Jakob.
If there's wavelight, I can see a good shot at the record. If not, I can see 3:45 and the European record going down
guccislides wrote:
If Jakob is doping, Cole Hocker is 1000% doping. I actually believe Hocker is more likely doping than Jakob.
Why should anyone care about these figmentary fancies on who is doping? If the testing regime doesn't work, then the sport has to accept it, like new shoes and surfaces. We still had a thrilling Olympics despite all the detractors around here. It would have been better, though, without all the overwrought testing that barred Richardson, Houlihan, Kendricks and others on various notional grounds--weed, burrito, or asymtomatic COVID traces.
aIIez wrote:
arunaround wrote:
Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.
A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.
3:42.3 or something equates to 4:00.
3:25.4 or so would equate to 3:43.1, then.
3:28.XX is more like 3:46.
It’s not going to be a fixed 17.7” conversion. How would that make sense?
1.08 conversions:
3:26.00 = 3:42.48
3:27.00 = 3:43.56
3:28.00 = 3:44.64
3:28.32 = 3:44.99
3:29.00 = 3:45.72
3:30.00 = 3:46.80
3:42.22 = 4:00.00
I’ll take Jakob FTW in 3:46-low.
I think the Brojos use a 1.0809 conversion. I think it spits out slightly better numbers. Also anyone remember the guy who used to always type “wabbits” as an annoying bit in these threads?
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
I think the Brojos use a 1.0809 conversion. I think it spits out slightly better numbers. Also anyone remember the guy who used to always type “wabbits” as an annoying bit in these threads?
You mean ventolin^3?
Greatest poster ever.
The 1500 m of 3:26 flat is regarded as equivalent or marginally superior to 3:43.1. This implies that 3:25.4 would likely fall in the 3:42 range for the mile. People sometimes make the mistake of assuming that one will hold an all out 1500 m effort for that extra 109 meters which is not the case. No woman has come that close to running 4:10 but the 1500 m WR is somewhat faster than that. There is an implicit fatigue factor which needs to be accounted for in any accurate conversion.
Yes! Mr. Wabbit himself
alanson wrote:
Hocker isn't in the race. No record.
How is that a problem? We already give Hocker credit for times he didn't run, so why shouldn't we give him credit for races he didn't run?
I don´t think a WR will be in the cards in the Bowerman Mile.
Jakob has experienced jetlag from Tokyo to Norway. And is going to experience jetlag again from Norway to the West Coast of the US.
And I can´t imagine that Tim should be in top shape either (if he races after his hamstring problems).
Hopefully there will be some good races in Europe in the last DL meetings.
I would like to see Jakob against all the topguns in either the 3000m or the 5000m!
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
I don't think a WR is possible but I do think entering the all-time top 10 is. Nobody has touched the top 15 for over 20 years...If the race goes 56/1:52-3 then we could see a time under 3:46.24 which is what is necessary.
I agree. Beating the WR would require something exceptional among others exceptional pacemaking. usually the pacemaking is crappy and nothing near what Hicham El G. had.
xczvzxcv wrote:
In my view, these guys have more than proved their capability of running 3:28-29 at various tracks, not just Tokyo. Ingebrigtsen is ready to run 3:27, and so he should be ready to run 3:44 in good conditions.
Have they? Not really.
If we ignore the Tokyo times, as the track produces times '1% to 2% faster than others' (Mondo track designer), then we find that Ingebrigtsen has never broken 3:30 on any other track apart from Monaco. His best 3 times (I've only taken top 3 due to his young age) at Monaco (which on average produces times between 1.5 and 2 secs faster over 1500m than any other track; Tokyo an exception of course) average out at 3:29.47. His best 3 non -Monaco times (excluding Tokyo) are: 3:30.16 (Lausanne), 3:30.69 (Brussels) and 3:30.74 (Stockholm); which gives an average of 3:30.53, over a second slower than his Monaco average.
Cheruiyot's data shows a similar scenario. Again ignoring Tokyo, Cheruiyot has broken 3:30 8 times, 5 of which have been at Monaco. He has only broken 3:29 once outside of Monaco - Lausanne (3:28.77)
Average of fastest 4 times at Monaco = 3:28.56.
Average of fastest 4 times outside of Monaco = 3:29.49.
As with Ingebrigtsen, a difference of about a second.
So, ignoring Monaco's super fast track and we find that Cheruiyot has shown to be a 3:29 low runner and Ingebrigtsen a 3:30 runner. Of course Jakob has improved this year and I expect to see him run a 3:28 high or 3:29 on the circuit post Tokyo, but I think we shouldn't get too carried away by assuming what times can be achieved on some tracks (Monaco, Tokyo) are possible on all tracks. And I haven't even started on the super shoes!
If we take current Cheruiyot and Ingebrigtsen back in a time machine to run on tracks and in shoes from 10 years ago, I doubt we'd be seeing 3:28s
xczvzxcv wrote:
3:28.3 is equivalent to 3:44.96 by 1.08 conversion factor. Jakob eased up the last 20m and was not full out.
He was given even pacing and drafting to 1300m by the World Champion on a track that is '1% to 2% faster' than all previous Mondo tracks, in super spikes! Who else has ever been afforded such advantages in a record attempt or fast race (possibly the even pacing for 3 laps for El G in Mile WR) ?
Easing off for last 20m probably cost him 0.2. I don't think you're getting any more meat from those bones!
Unless he runs on a similar track to Tokyo, I'd be very surprised if Jakob breaks 3:46 this year.
The record could fall. It's a strong record. El G was really great. Probably doped too.
Calling 3:44.8 for Jakob.
Eugene wants to hype their track for WCs and will put the right pacers to make it marketable.
Wasn’t Potato Tim less than 100% at Olys or so is claimed? He’ll take over after pacers drop then Jakob decides not to celebrate to the line.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
I think the Brojos use a 1.0809 conversion. I think it spits out slightly better numbers. Also anyone remember the guy who used to always type “wabbits” as an annoying bit in these threads?
You mean ventolin^3?
Greatest poster ever.
Goodness! People have short memories. The guy was a bully and always changing the goalposts. Like a broken clock that manges to tell the correct time just twice a day, he managed to get a couple of predictions right over about 10 years.
Phil Ken Sebben wrote:
Calling 3:44.8 for Jakob.
Eugene wants to hype their track for WCs and will put the right pacers to make it marketable.
Wasn’t Potato Tim less than 100% at Olys or so is claimed? He’ll take over after pacers drop then Jakob decides not to celebrate to the line.
Good point! I'd forgotten the World Champs are there next year. Have they laid the new track yet? If so, then it will probably be similar to Tokyo's, in which case expect times to be about 2 secs faster than they would have been!
Deanouk wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
You mean ventolin^3?
Greatest poster ever.
Goodness! People have short memories. The guy was a bully and always changing the goalposts. Like a broken clock that manges to tell the correct time just twice a day, he managed to get a couple of predictions right over about 10 years.
He rode the Farah 3:28 prediction into dust IIRC.
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