World Record for 5000 has 5 days left

George213 wrote:

henrik wrote:

He may not be as talented as Bekele, but he has more accomplishments than Mo Ahmed who just ran 12:46. Based on that I believe Joshua can go sub 12:40. Maybe too warm for WR, but it's going to be close.

Also, in 2017 WC he closed the 10000m in around 55s, despite running in lane 2 the whole time. I think his kick is there.

sure, he's quick...but big difference between 55 and a 52-53

Tron wrote:

George213 wrote:

Also, in 2017 WC he closed the 10000m in around 55s, despite running in lane 2 the whole time. I think his kick is there.

sure, he's quick...but big difference between 55 and a 52-53

But that was a pretty fast race. (26:50, less than a sec behind Mo). I doubt Bekele could've closed in 52-53 off such a fast pace in lane 2, probably 54 though.

Facts and Logic wrote:

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Yes, wavelight + latest generation, new mondo track, they say it's the fastest ever made..

So wavelights, new spikes based on the same tech as vaporflys, new state of the art track, and Cheptegei in the best shape of his life?

It's not out of the realm of possibility...

It will be very close.. If there had been better weather, at least 65F and dew points in the 60s, then the record would go in these conditions.

Given the forecast, i hope to be wrong but i think he will end up short, around 12:40-12:42..

Today i talked to somebody in the organising team, and he supervised today's training of Joshua, he looks really sharp and leaner than ever before. What i really think is within Joshua's capability is the 10,000m WR, i hope he tries it later this year or next year, he can go sub 26:15 on a perfect day. And then is the sub 58' half..which will be in his range in 2-3 years.

I agree Chep has a chance - it may depend on good pacing to get him where he needs to be at 2500-3000m. Chep has only gotten faster in the past two years , to enhance his incredible strength.

I think the laser pacer, the track, and Chep's drive to do it will get him close. I'm guessing 12:41. Plus, don't underestimate that Chep would probably cash a big fat check if he breaks the record. Plus the glory of taking down a Bekele record.

I hope he does break the record and give us something to celebrate in this horrible year.

Facts and Logic wrote:

You mentioned a game changer I think everyone is overlooking. The pacing is usually where WR attempts, or diamond league races in general, fall flat. But the wavelight technology is a game changer. The pacers and athlete will be fully aware of where they sit in relation to where they need to be at all times

Now that being said the weather prediction is a bit worrisome for a WR attempt

Yea, that bit of information was not known to me when I made my 12:57 prediction. With that knowledge, I will change my prediction to about 12:44, just tailing off the last 1500 meters or so.

The pacemakers mission is set to pass 2 k at 5:05.......I think Joshua can be close or even sub

Bekele`s record . Will be very thrilling to follow.

George213 wrote:

But that was a pretty fast race. (26:50, less than a sec behind Mo). I doubt Bekele could've closed in 52-53 off such a fast pace in lane 2, probably 54 though.

Didn't Bekele close his WR in 57.0? He also closed the 2003 10,000m in 55 off a much quicker pace (sub 13 last 5,000). He has also closed some fast sub 12:50 in that 52-53 range.

Regardless, there are numerous cases of Bekele finishing that fast whereas I've never seen Cheptegei finish that fast no matter what the pace was.

And who knows, maybe he doesn't need that ultra fast kick...in a way, Cheptegei is more like a Komen where he never finished a race as fast as Bekele or Haile but had the higher consistent speed

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Jambo Cabao wrote:

And as for the original question, I'd be shocked to see a sub 12:50.

I'm guessing a 12:55 winning time. Two other sub 13:00. And a bunch of 13:08-13:12s.

You are right on. This thread reminds me of the "Donovan Brazier is a lock to run sub 1.42 on a high school track in front of 30 people in a time trial" sentiment expressed on another thread a few weeks ago, thus legitimately showing how at least 3/4 of posters here truly know f%$k-all about track and field at this level.

But I like this prediction, I'm with you.

Something like 5/50 posters said that Brazier would run sub 1:42 at that meet. GTFOH.

16:39 for winner due to a very tactical 8 minute first mile.

Pacing lights, fastest ever track...but what else?

What shoes is he wearing?

What financial and other incentives are offered for a new WR?

What formation will the pacers run in?

Are they manipulating the weather in the stadium like Doha?

Split shorts or lycra shorts?

I feel like there is less than a 1% chance of the record being broken. But I will be super excited about any 12:4x up to 12:49. I feel like Cheptegei has a better shot at the 10k record, and by that I mean a little better than 1% chance. Komen, Geb, El G, Bekele, and Kipchoge are freaks of nature. Cheptegei has yet to show that kind of upside imo.

I think he'll go between 12:41-12:45, so I'll guess 12:42.76. If the weather was better he may get it... I definitely think it'll be close!

fact czech wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

You are right on. This thread reminds me of the "Donovan Brazier is a lock to run sub 1.42 on a high school track in front of 30 people in a time trial" sentiment expressed on another thread a few weeks ago, thus legitimately showing how at least 3/4 of posters here truly know f%$k-all about track and field at this level.

But I like this prediction, I'm with you.

Something like 5/50 posters said that Brazier would run sub 1:42 at that meet. GTFOH.

Cool, and another 30 said 1.42 and change with the American record definitely under threat. Since you are a fact checker why don't you go count and report back sl@pnuts?

12:53- going 7:35 then 2:34 then 2:44 blowing up but still holding on for a nice PR and maybe another gold medal next year.

Rupp fan wrote:

I feel like there is less than a 1% chance of the record being broken. But I will be super excited about any 12:4x up to 12:49. I feel like Cheptegei has a better shot at the 10k record, and by that I mean a little better than 1% chance. Komen, Geb, El G, Bekele, and Kipchoge are freaks of nature. Cheptegei has yet to show that kind of upside imo.

Eh, Kipchoge is not on the talent level of the other 3. He is just extremely durable, very smart, very optimistic. That makes him great in the thon, but he never showed the talent of the other 3 at lesser distances.

birdbeard wrote:

Rupp fan wrote:

I feel like there is less than a 1% chance of the record being broken. But I will be super excited about any 12:4x up to 12:49. I feel like Cheptegei has a better shot at the 10k record, and by that I mean a little better than 1% chance. Komen, Geb, El G, Bekele, and Kipchoge are freaks of nature. Cheptegei has yet to show that kind of upside imo.

Eh, Kipchoge is not on the talent level of the other 3. He is just extremely durable, very smart, very optimistic. That makes him great in the thon, but he never showed the talent of the other 3 at lesser distances.

Yes, Kipchoge is so untalented at lesser distances that he beat El g and Bekele in 2003 WC at 18.

Jambo Cabao wrote:

Bekele the uncatchable wrote:

OOh look everyone, a doping expert. You don't expect that here.

I feel like you're implying something other than pointing out that I'm aware of well known doping facts. What exactly are you implying?

What well known doping facts are you aware of, that I'm not?

I see Cheptegei running about ~12:42

No disrespect at all to Ahmed, but I think that Cheptegei is more than just 1-2 seconds quicker than Ahmed. I know that 10k and up probably plays to Cheptegei's strengths a bit more (consider that Cheptegei destroyed Ahmed in the 10k at worlds, although Ahmed did have the 5k rounds in his legs), but I think that Cheptegei should still be superior over the 5K distance by more than a couple seconds. At the same time, though, I don't see Cheptegei running under 12:40, but I do see him getting pretty close. So 12:42 is my guess. Probably opens up around on pace and fades a little bit towards the end, but not too badly.

It would be good to see him get a WR and he is immensely talented. At +/- 20 seconds faster than his PB and with the weather and the competitive conditions it's an ambitious goal. Hope he can do it. For the WR 3+ miles at +/- 4:03 per mile is incredible so if he is in the ball park of the WR like 12:42 +/- that would be a great result too.