Monkeys Skyping wrote:
fisky wrote:
. . . Odds of getting covid over the next 12 months: 1 in 50 . . .
Unless you're living isolated in the basement, this seems like an unrealistically low estimate given the number of confirmed cases in the U.S.
Excellent point. I'm unusual in that I'm retired and live in the country behind a locked security gate. So here's the data on that.
- Percent US population contracting covid in the past 12 months: 7%
- No. of people within 6 ft for five minutes indoors without a mask in the past week for the average person: Unknown... maybe 20-50? I imagine that for some people, the number is in the hundreds.
- No. for me in the past week: 3 (one of whom tested negative that week so really only 2)
- Thus, I've assumed my risk is 1 in 50 (2%) over the next 12 months vs the national infection rate of 7%
This would be an interesting poll. How many people have you been with 6 feet of indoors without a mask for five minutes in the past week?