Early ny state xc predictions?

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  • XC NY

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/25/2023 4:56pm EDT
    re: Section2XC

    Section2XC wrote:

    I think the rankers are presuming that Saratoga is also gearing up for a Championship season peak. If they run the way they ran in Mid September and Bethlehem duplicates their BH Invy race then Bethlehem should win Suburbans (and likely sectionals/Class A State Meet if something doesn’t change). But Berglund hit 120s throughout the Championship season last year and Owen, Ang, Conley, and Centea all seem to be poised to run with her (and have been in dual meets). Pritchard may be out for the season and is likely post season ineligible anyway if they didn’t do a waiver so that is a loss. It could go either way so I guess we’ll see what they do at Suburbans.

    You are giving the "rankers" way too much credit, if you think they're applying any more thought to this than "average speed-rating of top-5".

  • Direction

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/25/2023 5:10pm EDT
    re: XC NY

    XC NY wrote:

    These ranking are lazy and don't reflect reality.

    Saratoga's 4th and 5th runners have yet to hit a 110 SR. There is no way they will beat Bethlehem at Sectionals without one or both of these runners stepping up to 115 or better.

    At NXR, I can see FM beating Saratoga. Even though FM only has 9 girls, they can put 6 ahead of Saratoga’s 4th (unless their 4th or 5th really step up).
    I think there will be MANY runners in the field between Saratoga’s 3rd and 4th.
    The loss of the Wheeler twins was huge, and Saratoga couldn’t find 2 non-senior girls to step up and fill in.

    It would be cool to see a team with only 9 girls qualify

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/26/2023 7:41pm EDT
    re: Nyxcrunner

    North Rockland dominates

    tullyrunners.com
    Link:http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Roc...

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/26/2023 7:43pm EDT
    re: Nyxcrunner

    Boys rankings

    ny.milesplit.com
    New York Boys State Rankings - Week 4
    Emerson Dogwood
    Only a minor update here, as teams ramp up for local League and Sectional Championships. Section 1 Coaches continued the trend of rainy Invitationals, as Upstat
    Link:ny.milesplit.com/articles/340804/new-y...

  • registered

    my two pennies

    Member since 02/11/2022.

    1,435 posts. Last post 5 days ago.
    9 months ago 10/27/2023 2:24pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Dolpin wrote:

    Boys rankings

    Link:ny.milesplit.com/articles/340804/new-y...

    The gap between the top teams and teams ranked outside the top 10 is so small this year. NXR is going to be very interesting.

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 11:04am EDT
    re: Nyxcrunner

    Suburban council

    my.raceresult.com
    2023 Suburban Council Cross Country Championships, 10/28/2022 : : my.race|result
    2023 Suburban Council Cross Country Championships, 10/28/2022, Saratoga
    Link:my.raceresult.com/267650/#0_9E20E5

  • XC NY

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 3:32pm EDT
    re: XC NY

    Bethlehem just beat Saratoga handily at Suburbans.

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 3:49pm EDT
    re: XC NY

    XC NY wrote:

    Bethlehem just beat Saratoga handily at Suburbans.

    Saratoga was missing their #2 or 3 (Hart)

  • Section2XC

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 4:26pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Dolpin wrote:

    XC NY wrote:

    Bethlehem just beat Saratoga handily at Suburbans.

    Saratoga was missing their #2 or 3 (Hart)

    If she was up with her teammates then Saratoga would have won 38-42. They probably need her back healthy and their 4-8 to take another step up to get past Bethlehem at Section 2. I could see it going either way.

  • XC NY

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 4:28pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Dolpin wrote:

    XC NY wrote:

    Bethlehem just beat Saratoga handily at Suburbans.

    Saratoga was missing their #2 or 3 (Hart)

    Saratoga's usual #4 and #5 were faster today than they have been. Probably around 114 and 111 speed-ratings. They would have won, had Hart finished 5th or higher. Their whole team went out crazy-fast... 1200 meters in, they had 5 or 6 runners ahead of Bethlehem's #2.

    TImes were slow in the boys race - only 5 guys broke 16.

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 6:38pm EDT
    re: XC NY

    underdogtiming.com
    Link:www.underdogtiming.com/_files/ugd/d174...

    underdogtiming.com
    Link:www.underdogtiming.com/_files/ugd/d174...

    Boys individual / team results

    Saratoga almost lost to Guilderland, but Blaisdell (their usual #2 or 3) had an off race

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 7:02pm EDT
    re: Nyxcrunner

    Man, if Monroe-Woodbury had a 5th runner

    tullyrunners.com
    Link:http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/OCI...

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 10:33pm EDT
    re: XC NY

    Boys Speed ratings today
    Saratoga
    182
    167
    163
    159
    154
    154
    147 (usually their #2 runner)

    Monroe Woodbury
    175
    170
    170
    169
    154

  • XC NY

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/28/2023 11:01pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Dolpin wrote:

    Boys Speed ratings today
    Saratoga
    182
    167
    163
    159
    154
    154
    147 (usually their #2 runner)

    Monroe Woodbury
    175
    170
    170
    169
    154

    Saratoga's boys have been disappointing. They're not really in contention for an NXN bid.

  • registered

    bigbitty

    Member since 10/08/2023.

    5 posts. Last post 9 months ago.
    9 months ago 10/29/2023 10:13am EDT
    re: XC NY

    Agree 100%. Monroe, St. A’s, and Auburn will be the ones to compete for that 2nd spot. Saratoga seems out of contention at this point. Their 3-5 is just way too low.

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/29/2023 10:16am EDT
    re: bigbitty

    bigbitty wrote:

    Agree 100%. Monroe, St. A’s, and Auburn will be the ones to compete for that 2nd spot. Saratoga seems out of contention at this point. Their 3-5 is just way too low.

    Monroe Woodbury lost to Fairport by only 5 points at the Burnt Hills invite. Even then, MW didn’t have a 5th with their 4th

    tullyrunners.com
    Link:http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Bur...

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/29/2023 10:27am EDT
    re: Dolpin

    St Anthony’s will be racing here

    ny.milesplit.com
    NSCHSAA/NSCHSGAA League Championships 2023 - Meet Results
    MileSplits official results list for the 2023 NSCHSAA/NSCHSGAA League Championships, hosted by Just-In-Time Racing in Kings Park NY.
    Link:ny.milesplit.com/meets/579381-nschsaan...

  • XC NY

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/29/2023 1:21pm EDT
    re: bigbitty

    bigbitty wrote:

    Agree 100%. Monroe, St. A’s, and Auburn will be the ones to compete for that 2nd spot. Saratoga seems out of contention at this point. Their 3-5 is just way too low.

    Both boys and girls qualifiers are going to be toss-ups. Going to come down to whose back-end people run better and the "shape" of the field.

    If Hart runs, Saratoga and Bethlehem are clear qualifiers for the girls. Flip a coin to predict the winner.

  • Dolpin

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/29/2023 2:51pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Dolpin wrote:

    St Anthony’s will be racing here

    Link:ny.milesplit.com/meets/579381-nschsaan...

    And…they perfect scored

  • mannie

    Anonymous Poster

    9 months ago 10/29/2023 4:39pm EDT
    re: Dolpin

    Don't count out Ithaca too quickly, although I certainly wouldn't bet on them they did beat Auburn twice earlier in the season.

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