Trump had the advantage of being the sitting President last time, and he still lost. Since then, he invited, incited, and directed an insurrection, and not everyone who voted for him is cool with that. The ONLY thing that reasonable people can be upset with economically now is the inflation rate, and even that is falling and will be closer to normal (or AT normal) by Nov. 2024. If Trump is the GOP nominee (he could be, but I don't think he will be, though his chances are higher if there are a LOT of contenders like he had in 2016), he will get absolutely sh!tcanned by Biden. While there are many still in the cult and will go to their graves thinking that Trump was anointed by God, there are a ton of people who voted for him in 2020 that will never do so again...and he would need to gain MORE voters to win in 2024...just not happening.
It would take a perfect storm for Trump to win again, and that perfect storm would involve Biden not being the Democrat nominee due to his death or some other major health issue...but Biden not being the nominee isn't the only thing...so many other things would have to happen including a Democrat nominee who had a major scandal right before election day, an unforeseen horrible recession, and many other things. Trump needs not only pretty much all Republicans to vote for him, but also the majority of independents to do so as well. Just not going to happen. After he won in 2016, he has done nothing but lose elections for Republicans. As stupid as most Republicans today are, even some of them are on to that.