After every regional, Jonathan Gault will be running Bo Waggoner's program to see who is in and out. He'll post the results on the live blog on the front page: https://www.letsrun.com/events...
I've only been following because of my high school kids. I have a pretty decent idea of how NXN works, I think, but how many auto bids come from regionals? Are there at large bids as well? Sorry for my ignorance and thanks in advance!
Unlike NXN which is decided by committee, NCAA is decided almost entirely by a formula that rewards teams for going out and placing well at national races throughout the year.
2 teams AQ out of each region like in HS NXN, but then 13 spots are decided through at larges. Once the At Large process starts, whoever beat the most teams remaining that didn't AQ, gets an AL spot. Then you keep repeating the process for the next best team that beat a bunch of other teams.
Very cool. Thank you so much! This sport definitely hits the "math" part of my brain just right. It doesn't hurt that my guys are on an NXN bubble team. Thanks, all! Enjoy
Stanford and Gonzaga going 1-2 is really going to give out the at large points
Stanford will hopefully execute at nationals. Their #3 today showed up in comparison to his track credentials. Gonzaga will likely bomb to shreds like they normally do, but that will smith guy looks to be an all American.
This was typical west coast track XC. The true strong teams will emerge at that hilly potentially muddy VA course. Portland over CBU, no surprise Portland shows up. Let’s see how well CBU does next week, they showed at wisco they’re capable of performing in “true” cross country conditions/ terrain in comparison to a CA grass track.
Looks like Oregon is sending one individual for the men’s. Without a heavy hitter guy who was seemingly healthy in a recent instagram post as well.
Stanford was missing Leo Young most of the season. He's back and I expect him to do even better at Nats. They need Burke and Lex to close the gap. Their front three are solid, with Robinson, Sprout and DiDonato. If they all perform well I can see top five or six at Nats. But we know from previous seasons that they usually underperform.
The top 2 teams in each region, in this case Stanford and Gonzaga, get an auto qualifier to nats. After that the NCAA XC Subcommittee chooses the next 13 teams to receive an at large bid. I have no clue what criteria goes into it, but I would assume that it’s based on their performances across the season, especially at conference & regionals. The top 4 runners in each region that aren’t on an auto qualifying team receive auto bids to nationals and then 2 at large individuals also get selected to race
Oregon has so many freshman studs and Steury transferring in. And Jerry blows off the year. What is he doing? Training them a year and see who survives?? In the long term... everybody dies. These are college kids. Let them race. Nothing is given.
Yes, there's young talent there. But my sense is that from the training he couldn't project them high enough at Nats. He also knows that the upperclassmen are decent but not good enough to place high enough. I think the Oregon men are 2-3 years away from being competitive at the national level (top 5-6). The women, however, might be top 5-6 starting next year.
Portland 3rd (125), CBU 4th (125), & Washington 5th (127) all very close. Hope that they can get in. I'm afraid Boise State in 6th (142) and Oregon 7th (197) won't make the cut.
Hey all, Bo here from xcquals. The projections from xcquals are definitely not final -- there can be mistakes in the season results, B teams, tiebreakers, etc. But I don't see any red flags now. The Stride Report has been digging into those details and helping me out with corrections. We should be more confident by tonight.
"Started following cuz of my kids" - you can see a description of the rules here:
Short version: you get points for beating the auto qualifier teams. Now select the remaining team with the most points. Everyone who beat them now gets a point. Repeat until you hit 31 teams. Then some details about the push process.
Exactly. Jerry and Oregon are not working with a short term focus to barely make it to nationals this year, they're working long term to be on the podium in another year or two. And they probably will succeed.
Turns out Jerry knows far more about training champions than anyone who posts on these boards, especially the trolls who think he should be fired...
Oregon is not the type of program that needs a multi-year rebuild to QUALIFY for NCAAs. Hell, Jerry couldn't even get INDIVIDUALS to qualify in YEAR TWO. At least Ben Thomas could get teams to qualify even when Johnson's focus was on the rest of the track team. This literally might the worst finish both team wise and individually for an Oregon squad at a regional meet on all fronts. Considering Oregon's profile and the resources Jerry has, there is no justifiable excuse for today's result.
Its a weird sport when if Grand Canyon had guys jog round at the back to make up a team CBU would beat Portland but becasue they don't Portland beats CBU.
Yeah I noticed that; one missing spot that would have increased Portland's score by 1 but leave CBU's alone. That also affects the the AL spots because Portland misses out if they get 4th to CBU.
So one school putting out an incomplete team created a tie breaker between 3/4 at a regional, and then the result of that tie breaker was the difference between one team or another team going home (devastated). The thinnest of margins decided Portland making it in vs (it looks like) Michigan State not making it.
Are all the men’s individual at larges gonna come from the south central? Because it’s only Texas and Arkansas those fifth and sixth guys at places 11 and 12 should both go? What a joke region
Stanford and Gonzaga going 1-2 is really going to give out the at large points
Stanford will hopefully execute at nationals. Their #3 today showed up in comparison to his track credentials. Gonzaga will likely bomb to shreds like they normally do, but that will smith guy looks to be an all American.
This was typical west coast track XC. The true strong teams will emerge at that hilly potentially muddy VA course. Portland over CBU, no surprise Portland shows up. Let’s see how well CBU does next week, they showed at wisco they’re capable of performing in “true” cross country conditions/ terrain in comparison to a CA grass track.
Looks like Oregon is sending one individual for the men’s. Without a heavy hitter guy who was seemingly healthy in a recent instagram post as well.
Like they normally do? They've qualified three times in their history? They struggled the first two times, but finished 13th last year. They have nowhere near last year's talent level on their current squad and still booked an Auto Q.
No acknowledging a learning curve? Or how hard it is to become a perennially competitive D1 program as a small school? Just lacking general critical thinking skills?
Exactly. Jerry and Oregon are not working with a short term focus to barely make it to nationals this year, they're working long term to be on the podium in another year or two. And they probably will succeed.
Turns out Jerry knows far more about training champions than anyone who posts on these boards, especially the trolls who think he should be fired...
Rob Conner has been the best coach in Oregon for about two decades now, no?
They should give Conner a shot at running a group like BTC since there is a gap in Portland now, and the move seemed to be a big reason BTC is crumbling away.
We do know, since there’s a concrete way the individuals are determined.
Besides the auto qualifiers and teams, it’s the top two placing individuals not already qualified. So in the south central region, since those two kids are 11th and 12th, they may be the highest placing remaining individuals (which was my question).
The only way there’s more at larges is if there aren’t four individuals inside the top 25 in their region (usually Mountain). Not sure if that happened this year but that would open up more at larges to fill the 250 person field