Early ny state xc predictions?

As someone who races against section 5 teams a lot, I think these are pretty solid predictions. Passalugo and Fairport are definitely running away with the championship, but don’t count out Nate Fisher from Brockport for 2nd place! He ran a better time than Tempest by milliseconds at McQuaid and has a faster 5k PR. He also has a great kick. I think overall, the middle range of this prediction is very interchangeable in terms of placing and could go any way. Churchville-Chili has a lethal top 3, but they just don’t have enough depth to compete at the top, top level of NY

Bethlehem Central with a solid pack

New York's "secret weapon" for NXN...

Involuntary Conditioning.

Every team is racing in "Early December in Portland" weather every weekend. 🙄

St Anthony’s sat out their top 3

live.fultonaccuratetiming.com

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Link:live.fultonaccuratetiming.com/meets/26...

Fairport and Churchville 1 and 2 as expected. Extremely good day for Sutherland with William Tempest beating Jake Passalugo to secure the victory. Very off day for Spencerport.

Corning beats Ithaca but Ithaca was without Hubisz. Anyone know why he didn’t race?

Auburn ran their #6 - 12 guys in the Varsity race at Weedsport. Still looking for improvement at the #5.

Section One Invite was pretty slow today with only Ryan Tuohy (16:51) and Ethan Green (16:53) under 17:00. Both probably around 171-172.

Corning beat Ithaca

Oops...

Make that a 178 and a 177. Bowdoin Park must've been a mess yesterday.

Fairport

It was - not the best camera work but here is the boys race

Confirming...that course is a mess. Five straight weekends of rain soaked into it. Amtrak suspended service between NYC & Albany this weekend due to mudslides on the tracks. That's the rail line that runs just outside the fence on the west side of the park. Every kid in that race probably ran 5100m staying outside of the conventional lanes because they were soup. NY & NE should probably start offering up some prayers to the Sun Gods over the next month.

Got to be an injury. There's no reason to rest someone in a championship, even if it's just a local conference.

Based on the "best performance to-date" rankings... Bethlehem is the top girls team by a fair margin. Saratoga, East Aurora, and FM are so close that it would come down to displacement by other team runners.

Ithaca raced again. With Hubisz this time

ny.milesplit.com

Owego-Dash in the Dark 2023 - Final Results (Raw)

MileSplits official Final Results raw results for the 2023 Owego-Dash in the Dark , hosted by Marathon in Owego NY.

Link:ny.milesplit.com/meets/579584-owego-da...

Girls rankings this week

1. Saratoga

2. Bethlehem

3. FM

ny.milesplit.com

New York Girls State Rankings - Week 4

Emerson Dogwood

Only a minor update here, as teams ramp up for local League and Sectional Championships. Section 1 Coaches continued the trend of rainy Invitationals, as Upstat

Link:ny.milesplit.com/articles/340755/new-y...

These ranking are lazy and don't reflect reality.

Saratoga's 4th and 5th runners have yet to hit a 110 SR. There is no way they will beat Bethlehem at Sectionals without one or both of these runners stepping up to 115 or better.

I think the rankers are presuming that Saratoga is also gearing up for a Championship season peak. If they run the way they ran in Mid September and Bethlehem duplicates their BH Invy race then Bethlehem should win Suburbans (and likely sectionals/Class A State Meet if something doesn’t change). But Berglund hit 120s throughout the Championship season last year and Owen, Ang, Conley, and Centea all seem to be poised to run with her (and have been in dual meets). Pritchard may be out for the season and is likely post season ineligible anyway if they didn’t do a waiver so that is a loss. It could go either way so I guess we’ll see what they do at Suburbans.