I suppose that you have read my post no 331 by now and watched the linked videos?
Can you see that you are in trouble now? You have repately stated that a runner needs good speed to be a strong 800m runner and now I have provided the documentation for Jakob´s EXCELLENT 800m times all the way through his teens. So isn´t the discussion over?
To underline my point: With the exception of Laros none of the current top milers (of European origin) who you consider superior to Jakob speedwise has run as fast in their teens as Jakob and most first broke 1:46 late in their career:
Wightman 1:52.16 at 18. 1:47.13 at 22 and 1:45.42 at 23.
Kerr: 1:59 at 15, 1:48 at 20 and 1:45.35 at 21.
Gourley: 1:52.77 at 17, 1:46.12 at 24 and 1:44.82 at 27.
Habz: 1:50.44 at 23, 1:46.20 at 26 and 1:43.90 at 29.
Just to clarify: You have stated that most current top milers have run 1:45 in the 800m. This isn´t correct. Only about a third has. To live up to my username I will, however, estimate that more might go under 1:46 if they gave it a fair chance. Including Jakob as you possibly know if he raced in top shape under good conditions.
400m: I will say he possibly can run 48 due to his strong 200m and 800m ability.
Lack of speed: Do you ever watch any of his races? Will promise to watch/ rewatch some races if I provide the links?
I have responded to your previous post. What Jakob could do in his early teens is irrelevant. It is what he is capable of now in his early twenties that counts. What other runners could do at similar ages means nothing - it doesn't alter his abilities in any way. I am comparing him with the great 1500m runners since Elliott - Snell, Ryun, Vasala, Bayi, Walker, Ovett, Coe, Cram, Morcelli and El G. He is slower than all of them - which has nothing to do with the times he has run but his top speed. I have watched him race. He has great endurance but lacks speed compared with the very best over the 1500. Neither Wightman nor Kerr are spectacularly fast - but they have more pace at their disposal than he does. Cram effectively agrees, or he wouldn't suggest Jakob needs to work on his speed.
See my next post. Here is the video from early 2014 when Jakob ran an indoor 200m at age 13 years and 4 month (not 3 month as wrongly stated above) old:
He ran 25:90 beating an obviously faster and more powerful competitor by running evenly with a better finish. Is 25:90 fast? It is remarkable fast for a runner who is primarily doing aerobic training and who obviously isn´t a natural born sprinter. Despite this he still has more natural speed than the real sprinters mentioned in my previous post, including my young club mate who ran low 26 at age 13 and high 23 at the age of 15 in the 200m. I will estimate that Jakob could have run at least 25.5 in an outdoor 200m under good condition in the summer 2014 (where he was still only 13), 24 sec in the 200m in the summer 2015 at age 14 and 23 sec in the summer 2016 at age 15. He never – to my knowledge – ran 200m in competition again but he ran a number of 800m races which races indicates that his speed progressed swiftly: Here is an 800m at the age of 13 and 3 month:
2:03.21 is a VERY fast time for a guy who is only 13 and who mainly is doing long distance training. But how did he progress from here? Quite well: Just over a year later he ran 1:56.69
an improvement of 6.5 sec. And 8 month later he ran a new outdoor Age WR
in 1:52.60. An improvement of further 4 sec. So Armstrong, if you claim that the 800m performance is dependent on natural speed and that Jakob doesn´t possess this speed, how was he able to run an age WR in his teens. Did he lose his natural speed somewhere along the road? Not in the next 5 years where he progressed to low 1:51 at 15, 1:49.40 at 16 and 1:46.44 at 19. Since then he hasn´t run a serious 800m race but if he had just been following his curb he would have been at 1:44 last season if he had raced in top shape (the shape he had at his Brüssel 2000m WR race). It would also help if he ran more than one 800 race in the season so his body could adjust to the faster pace, especially in the beginning of the race. Back to his 200m potential: As mentioned above he ran an 800m in 2:03.69 at age 13. That makes high 30 per 200m. His 200m PB at the same time was 25.90 so the difference was about 5 sec. Our hero Peter Snell ran according to you low 22 in the 200m and we know he could run 1:44.30 in the 800m (= just over 26 per 200m) so there was a 4 sec difference in his case which is natural because he is running a much faster time. When Jakob was running just over and under 1:52 at age 14 and age 15 his pace per 200m was just over and under 28 sec which by deducting 4.5 sec indicates a 200m just under 24 at age 14 and under 23.5 at age 15. Jakob´s 800m PB at age 19 = 1:46.44 gives a 200m pace at 26.61. If we cautiously subtract 4 sec we get a 200m time at 22.61 at age 19. Since he clearly has improved his speed since then I will estimate that his 200m potential last year was low 22 similar to Snell´s. I know you will strongly disagree BUT do have any valid arguments or just some “handwavering” ones? I am first coming back to this thread now. I see you have responded. I will come back to that later.
Your math simply doesn’t add up! -Low 22 doesn’t give a 48 in the 400m! Low 22 is 46 something, and would make Jakob a sub 1.41.5 runner in the 800m..!
I don’t have Seb Coe’s PR’s in the 100/200m, but I got Vebjørn Rodal’s: 100m -11.28. 200m -22.59 (but a 22.58 indoors -which converts to a low 22 I believe)…
Interesting here is: Coe’s 400m pb is 46.87, whereas Rodal’s pb is 46.89 (although also a listed 46.56 -not approved..?) In the 800m: Coe -1.41.73. Rodal 1.42.58 (Olympic gold). 1500m: Coe -3.29.77. Rodal -3.37.57. Your 200m estimate may suggest that Jakob beats the two mentioned 800m medalists not only in the 800m/1500m and everything above, but also in the 400m (and maybe in the 200m)..!!
I think Jakob has got more 200 and 400m speed than Armstronglivs suggests. But your 22.61 for Jakob as a 19 years old doesn’t at all align with his 1.46.44 the same year, in a well paced race…
See my next post. Here is the video from early 2014 when Jakob ran an indoor 200m at age 13 years and 4 month (not 3 month as wrongly stated above) old:
He ran 25:90 beating an obviously faster and more powerful competitor by running evenly with a better finish. Is 25:90 fast? It is remarkable fast for a runner who is primarily doing aerobic training and who obviously isn´t a natural born sprinter. Despite this he still has more natural speed than the real sprinters mentioned in my previous post, including my young club mate who ran low 26 at age 13 and high 23 at the age of 15 in the 200m. I will estimate that Jakob could have run at least 25.5 in an outdoor 200m under good condition in the summer 2014 (where he was still only 13), 24 sec in the 200m in the summer 2015 at age 14 and 23 sec in the summer 2016 at age 15. He never – to my knowledge – ran 200m in competition again but he ran a number of 800m races which races indicates that his speed progressed swiftly: Here is an 800m at the age of 13 and 3 month:
2:03.21 is a VERY fast time for a guy who is only 13 and who mainly is doing long distance training. But how did he progress from here? Quite well: Just over a year later he ran 1:56.69
an improvement of 6.5 sec. And 8 month later he ran a new outdoor Age WR
in 1:52.60. An improvement of further 4 sec. So Armstrong, if you claim that the 800m performance is dependent on natural speed and that Jakob doesn´t possess this speed, how was he able to run an age WR in his teens. Did he lose his natural speed somewhere along the road? Not in the next 5 years where he progressed to low 1:51 at 15, 1:49.40 at 16 and 1:46.44 at 19. Since then he hasn´t run a serious 800m race but if he had just been following his curb he would have been at 1:44 last season if he had raced in top shape (the shape he had at his Brüssel 2000m WR race). It would also help if he ran more than one 800 race in the season so his body could adjust to the faster pace, especially in the beginning of the race. Back to his 200m potential: As mentioned above he ran an 800m in 2:03.69 at age 13. That makes high 30 per 200m. His 200m PB at the same time was 25.90 so the difference was about 5 sec. Our hero Peter Snell ran according to you low 22 in the 200m and we know he could run 1:44.30 in the 800m (= just over 26 per 200m) so there was a 4 sec difference in his case which is natural because he is running a much faster time. When Jakob was running just over and under 1:52 at age 14 and age 15 his pace per 200m was just over and under 28 sec which by deducting 4.5 sec indicates a 200m just under 24 at age 14 and under 23.5 at age 15. Jakob´s 800m PB at age 19 = 1:46.44 gives a 200m pace at 26.61. If we cautiously subtract 4 sec we get a 200m time at 22.61 at age 19. Since he clearly has improved his speed since then I will estimate that his 200m potential last year was low 22 similar to Snell´s. I know you will strongly disagree BUT do have any valid arguments or just some “handwavering” ones? I am first coming back to this thread now. I see you have responded. I will come back to that later.
Your math simply doesn’t add up! -Low 22 doesn’t give a 48 in the 400m! Low 22 is 46 something, and would make Jakob a sub 1.41.5 runner in the 800m..!
I don’t have Seb Coe’s PR’s in the 100/200m, but I got Vebjørn Rodal’s: 100m -11.28. 200m -22.59 (but a 22.58 indoors -which converts to a low 22 I believe)…
Interesting here is: Coe’s 400m pb is 46.87, whereas Rodal’s pb is 46.89 (although also a listed 46.56 -not approved..?) In the 800m: Coe -1.41.73. Rodal 1.42.58 (Olympic gold). 1500m: Coe -3.29.77. Rodal -3.37.57. Your 200m estimate may suggest that Jakob beats the two mentioned 800m medalists not only in the 800m/1500m and everything above, but also in the 400m (and maybe in the 200m)..!!
I think Jakob has got more 200 and 400m speed than Armstronglivs suggests. But your 22.61 for Jakob as a 19 years old doesn’t at all align with his 1.46.44 the same year, in a well paced race…
OK curious dude.
Let´s take a look at the numbers again:
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
Everything you are saying in this post, as well as your former posts, are logically sound -the only thing is that you conclude with such a good 200m time that something just doesn’t sound right! -F.ex 2020: Yes, I buy your 1 sec faster in the 800m. But if he could have done 22.61 in the 200m that year he should have run way way faster than 1.45.4..!
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
I forgot to answer one of your questions in your last post -well, no; I don’t know much about athletics / friidrett in general. (It’s a complicated field). But when I was a teenager myself (of course an older one than Jakob) I ran double digits of seconds faster than his 2.03 in the 800m, despite being a long distance guy. So I know from experience that Jakob’s teenager 800m results were good!
Your math simply doesn’t add up! -Low 22 doesn’t give a 48 in the 400m! Low 22 is 46 something, and would make Jakob a sub 1.41.5 runner in the 800m..!
I don’t have Seb Coe’s PR’s in the 100/200m, but I got Vebjørn Rodal’s: 100m -11.28. 200m -22.59 (but a 22.58 indoors -which converts to a low 22 I believe)…
Interesting here is: Coe’s 400m pb is 46.87, whereas Rodal’s pb is 46.89 (although also a listed 46.56 -not approved..?) In the 800m: Coe -1.41.73. Rodal 1.42.58 (Olympic gold). 1500m: Coe -3.29.77. Rodal -3.37.57. Your 200m estimate may suggest that Jakob beats the two mentioned 800m medalists not only in the 800m/1500m and everything above, but also in the 400m (and maybe in the 200m)..!!
I think Jakob has got more 200 and 400m speed than Armstronglivs suggests. But your 22.61 for Jakob as a 19 years old doesn’t at all align with his 1.46.44 the same year, in a well paced race…
OK curious dude.
Let´s take a look at the numbers again:
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
It is not easy to find runners who have registered both times in the 200m, the 400m AND the 800m in IAAF but with some imagination I found a few:
Andreas Bube
Who ran 21.68 at age 21. And 46.32 in the 400m and 1:48.48 in the 800m at the same age. Bube later ran 22.22 indoors in the 200m. He ran 48.26 in the 400m at age 26 and his PB in the 800m 1:44.89 at age 25.
Andreas Almgren
Who ran impressive 22.88 at the age of 16. At the same age he ran 48.33 in the 400m and 1:51.99 in the 800m. He never ran an official 200m or 400m again but at age 19 he ran 1:45.65 in the 800m.
Guy Learmonth
Ran 22.99 in the 200m at 18. He ran 48.85 in the 400m and 1:49.23 in the 800m at the same age. Guy never ran the 200m again but ran 48 in the 400m at age 20 (do we dare to estimate that he would have been able to run a 22.55 in the 200m in the same year?) Guy ran his PB in the 800m at age 26 and almost the same at age 31. At age 29 he ran 48.08 in the 400m. Guy has run 1:46.60 indoors this year.
Adam Kszczot
Adam ran 22.37 in the 200m at age 19. In the same year he ran 47 in the 400m and 1:45.72 in the 800m. He never had another official time in the 200m but ran 46.51 in the 400m at age 21 and at the same age his PB in the 800m: 1:43.30. Adam ran 1:43 SB three more times more in his career. Last time at age 26.
---------------------
As you can see there are runners who runs 22 in the 200m or faster (Bube) even though their 800m PBs (apart from Adam) seem accessible for Jakob.
And Almgren ran high 22 at the age of 16. Don´t you think he would have been able to run low 22 at the age of 19 ( barring illness and injury; I think he had injury problems!)?
AND do you consider Almgren a faster finisher in the 1500m than Jakob today?
-----------------------
I think that part of our disagreement is based on the fact that you support the majority here who claims that Jakob has inferior finishing speed compared to the other top milers, especially Kerr and Wightman (the latter in his 2022 high season shape).
Whereas I claim that recent races don´t seem to support that majority opinion.
In my next post I will link to some race videos to support my opinion.
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
It is not easy to find runners who have registered both times in the 200m, the 400m AND the 800m in IAAF but with some imagination I found a few:
Andreas Bube
Who ran 21.68 at age 21. And 46.32 in the 400m and 1:48.48 in the 800m at the same age. Bube later ran 22.22 indoors in the 200m. He ran 48.26 in the 400m at age 26 and his PB in the 800m 1:44.89 at age 25.
Andreas Almgren
Who ran impressive 22.88 at the age of 16. At the same age he ran 48.33 in the 400m and 1:51.99 in the 800m. He never ran an official 200m or 400m again but at age 19 he ran 1:45.65 in the 800m.
Guy Learmonth
Ran 22.99 in the 200m at 18. He ran 48.85 in the 400m and 1:49.23 in the 800m at the same age. Guy never ran the 200m again but ran 48 in the 400m at age 20 (do we dare to estimate that he would have been able to run a 22.55 in the 200m in the same year?) Guy ran his PB in the 800m at age 26 and almost the same at age 31. At age 29 he ran 48.08 in the 400m. Guy has run 1:46.60 indoors this year.
Adam Kszczot
Adam ran 22.37 in the 200m at age 19. In the same year he ran 47 in the 400m and 1:45.72 in the 800m. He never had another official time in the 200m but ran 46.51 in the 400m at age 21 and at the same age his PB in the 800m: 1:43.30. Adam ran 1:43 SB three more times more in his career. Last time at age 26.
---------------------
As you can see there are runners who runs 22 in the 200m or faster (Bube) even though their 800m PBs (apart from Adam) seem accessible for Jakob.
And Almgren ran high 22 at the age of 16. Don´t you think he would have been able to run low 22 at the age of 19 ( barring illness and injury; I think he had injury problems!)?
AND do you consider Almgren a faster finisher in the 1500m than Jakob today?
-----------------------
I think that part of our disagreement is based on the fact that you support the majority here who claims that Jakob has inferior finishing speed compared to the other top milers, especially Kerr and Wightman (the latter in his 2022 high season shape).
Whereas I claim that recent races don´t seem to support that majority opinion.
In my next post I will link to some race videos to support my opinion.
Comparing one runner with another says nothing about what either runner might be capable of. They are different people. You might as well compare yourself with me. It means nothing about what we each might be capable of.
I suppose that you have read my post no 331 by now and watched the linked videos?
Can you see that you are in trouble now? You have repately stated that a runner needs good speed to be a strong 800m runner and now I have provided the documentation for Jakob´s EXCELLENT 800m times all the way through his teens. So isn´t the discussion over?
To underline my point: With the exception of Laros none of the current top milers (of European origin) who you consider superior to Jakob speedwise has run as fast in their teens as Jakob and most first broke 1:46 late in their career:
Wightman 1:52.16 at 18. 1:47.13 at 22 and 1:45.42 at 23.
Kerr: 1:59 at 15, 1:48 at 20 and 1:45.35 at 21.
Gourley: 1:52.77 at 17, 1:46.12 at 24 and 1:44.82 at 27.
Habz: 1:50.44 at 23, 1:46.20 at 26 and 1:43.90 at 29.
Just to clarify: You have stated that most current top milers have run 1:45 in the 800m. This isn´t correct. Only about a third has. To live up to my username I will, however, estimate that more might go under 1:46 if they gave it a fair chance. Including Jakob as you possibly know if he raced in top shape under good conditions.
400m: I will say he possibly can run 48 due to his strong 200m and 800m ability.
Lack of speed: Do you ever watch any of his races? Will promise to watch/ rewatch some races if I provide the links?
I have responded to your previous post. What Jakob could do in his early teens is irrelevant. It is what he is capable of now in his early twenties that counts. What other runners could do at similar ages means nothing - it doesn't alter his abilities in any way. I am comparing him with the great 1500m runners since Elliott - Snell, Ryun, Vasala, Bayi, Walker, Ovett, Coe, Cram, Morcelli and El G. He is slower than all of them - which has nothing to do with the times he has run but his top speed. I have watched him race. He has great endurance but lacks speed compared with the very best over the 1500. Neither Wightman nor Kerr are spectacularly fast - but they have more pace at their disposal than he does. Cram effectively agrees, or he wouldn't suggest Jakob needs to work on his speed.
You have watched him race? That's impressive. Once? Twice?
The great 1500m runners since Elliott include Vasala but not Keino? Aouita? Cacho? Ngeny? Kiprop?
I have responded to your previous post. What Jakob could do in his early teens is irrelevant. It is what he is capable of now in his early twenties that counts. What other runners could do at similar ages means nothing - it doesn't alter his abilities in any way. I am comparing him with the great 1500m runners since Elliott - Snell, Ryun, Vasala, Bayi, Walker, Ovett, Coe, Cram, Morcelli and El G. He is slower than all of them - which has nothing to do with the times he has run but his top speed. I have watched him race. He has great endurance but lacks speed compared with the very best over the 1500. Neither Wightman nor Kerr are spectacularly fast - but they have more pace at their disposal than he does. Cram effectively agrees, or he wouldn't suggest Jakob needs to work on his speed.
You have watched him race? That's impressive. Once? Twice?
The great 1500m runners since Elliott include Vasala but not Keino? Aouita? Cacho? Ngeny? Kiprop?
I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
You have watched him race? That's impressive. Once? Twice?
The great 1500m runners since Elliott include Vasala but not Keino? Aouita? Cacho? Ngeny? Kiprop?
I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
Keino has not fluked anything. Bunch of dopers? But you list Coe, El G? I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
Keino has not fluked anything. Bunch of dopers? But you list Vasala, Coe, Morceli, El G?
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
Keino has not fluked anything. Bunch of dopers? But you list Coe, El G? I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
I don't actually care what you think. But you care what I say or you wouldn't be following me around.
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
It is not easy to find runners who have registered both times in the 200m, the 400m AND the 800m in IAAF but with some imagination I found a few:
Andreas Bube
Who ran 21.68 at age 21. And 46.32 in the 400m and 1:48.48 in the 800m at the same age. Bube later ran 22.22 indoors in the 200m. He ran 48.26 in the 400m at age 26 and his PB in the 800m 1:44.89 at age 25.
Andreas Almgren
Who ran impressive 22.88 at the age of 16. At the same age he ran 48.33 in the 400m and 1:51.99 in the 800m. He never ran an official 200m or 400m again but at age 19 he ran 1:45.65 in the 800m.
Guy Learmonth
Ran 22.99 in the 200m at 18. He ran 48.85 in the 400m and 1:49.23 in the 800m at the same age. Guy never ran the 200m again but ran 48 in the 400m at age 20 (do we dare to estimate that he would have been able to run a 22.55 in the 200m in the same year?) Guy ran his PB in the 800m at age 26 and almost the same at age 31. At age 29 he ran 48.08 in the 400m. Guy has run 1:46.60 indoors this year.
Adam Kszczot
Adam ran 22.37 in the 200m at age 19. In the same year he ran 47 in the 400m and 1:45.72 in the 800m. He never had another official time in the 200m but ran 46.51 in the 400m at age 21 and at the same age his PB in the 800m: 1:43.30. Adam ran 1:43 SB three more times more in his career. Last time at age 26.
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As you can see there are runners who runs 22 in the 200m or faster (Bube) even though their 800m PBs (apart from Adam) seem accessible for Jakob.
And Almgren ran high 22 at the age of 16. Don´t you think he would have been able to run low 22 at the age of 19 ( barring illness and injury; I think he had injury problems!)?
AND do you consider Almgren a faster finisher in the 1500m than Jakob today?
-----------------------
I think that part of our disagreement is based on the fact that you support the majority here who claims that Jakob has inferior finishing speed compared to the other top milers, especially Kerr and Wightman (the latter in his 2022 high season shape).
Whereas I claim that recent races don´t seem to support that majority opinion.
In my next post I will link to some race videos to support my opinion.
Videos showing Jakob´s finishing speed in 2023 DL Oslo 2023 DL Lausanne 2023
Can anyone maintain with a straight face that Jakob has inferior finishing speed compared to the other top milers, including Kerr in 2023? BUT, BUT……………. Isn´t it true that no way Jakob will win if the faster milers like Nuguse, Hoare, Habz and Kipsang (the 2 latter with significantly faster 800m PBs than Jakob) have contact with 200m to go in a slower race? DL Rabat 2023 1500m final European Indoor champs 2023
In the relatively slow 1500m in Rabat only Nuguse was able to almost hang on over the last 200m. The other top milers were destroyed when Jakob shifted gear out of last bend. In the indoor final Gourley - who on paper is more than 1.5 sec faster than Jakob in the 800m -had a perfect race - drafting on Jakob from far out at a “slower” pace. Gourley was still in contention with 200m and 100m to go but was unable to demonstrate his supposed superior kick. Jakob stated at the end of the champs that he only was all in in the last 100m of the 3000m which he ran after the 1500m final. But aren´t there some examples where Jakob was in troubles in slower races (I think I have read many times on these pages that this is how it is)? It isn´t easy to find examples on that. Even when he was younger and not as fast as last year he did quite well: OG 1500m semifinal Tokyo 2021
Isn´t it true – as the slightly biased British commentator says – that Jakob was “barely out of third gear”. Whereas the other top milers, including Kerr, Mechaal and Kipsang had to strain a bit more. And some had to fight for their lives. McSweyn, Grethen and Heyward survived whereas Centro and Habz didn´t. And nothing had changed 2 years later: 1500m semifinal Budapest 2023
In this rather slow (3:35) 1500m semifinal he should be vulnerable due to his inferior speed but he apparently isn´t aware of this lack of ability (irony) since he is far back at the bell - and at 300m out - only going through the gears just before the 200m mark. The times that the only commentator on this video has provided seem correct. So he is running some VERY fast splits on the last lap and still not looking as if he is sprinting 100%. ------------------------ But didn´t he lose to Kerr in the Budapest final because of Kerr´s superior speed? No, as THOUGHTSLEADER already has explained several times: Jakob and Nuguse lost to Kerr in Budapest because they were not at their best. Jakob was more than 2.5 seconds from his season best and Nuguse was more than 1 sec behind his 1500m season best (if we are converting Nuguse´s mile time from the Bowerman Mile 2023 to a mid 3:27 in the 1500m he was also 2.5 sec away from his season best). Kerr improved his SB slightly in Budapest. Note that I am not mentioning Jakob´s illness (before now). I don´t want to upset TROLLMINATOR and likeminded negativists who are certain that Jakob´s (and the Norwegian team doctor´s) information about sore throat and fever was a lie. The undeniable fact is that Jakob was significantly under his best 2023 shape and that was the reason Kerr won. Finally, to live up to my username:
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My above comments was as of last year and things might be changing. British patriots are expecting great things from Kerr this season and I tend to agree that Kerr might improve both his 1500m PB AND his 800m PB significantly if he joins some races under good conditions. Kerr looks like he has improved BOTH his speed AND his endurance since last season. So it can be really close in Paris if both bring their best form (unless of course Jakob also improves significantly from his 2023 level).
You have watched him race? That's impressive. Once? Twice?
The great 1500m runners since Elliott include Vasala but not Keino? Aouita? Cacho? Ngeny? Kiprop?
I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
* No one put a gun to J Ryun's head, 1968 Olympic. No one made Ryun race higher elevation men, 1500m. Wasn't there a thing called natural science, 1968? You do know J Ryun was almost the exact same size as U.S. 800m man, Duane Solomon. Ryun gambled. He thought he was so superior a 1500m runner, his size and high elevation combination would not prohibit a 1500m win. Ryun had to know what I know: If Ryun would have raced 800m, he would have raced for bronze. No way was he going to earn gold or silver, 800m, 1968 so he gambled and raced 1500m.
* Keino, 1972 Olympic. K Keino was 32 years old, 1972 Olympic. Mike Boit and K Keino did not work together as teammates. K Keino had no help with early pace. P Vasala, 25 or 26 year old 1:44.xx 800m man out-kicked K Keino, 32 year old 1:46.xx 800m man over final 100m, so what.
Thirty-two year old 1500m runners rarely get to 1500m final. Since 1960 Olympic, list the number of 32 year old men to even make it 1500m final, Olympics.
I haven't been keeping up as this discussion has gone wild, but I am on objectiveobserver's side here. Jakob seems to *think* he can't finish as well as the other guys OR he just wants to take some of the unpredictability/randomness out of these races. It seems to be more the latter, though he acknowledges that his sprint abilities (in a 400m race or maybe in 3:55 1500m race even) aren't at some of the other guys'. That being said, there is decidedly not a track record of Jakob being dismantled in sprint finishes. Instead, there is a pattern of Jakob getting beat when he tries to take the lead from very far out in a bid to negate sprint finishes in a championship race. Notably, these aren't in particularly slow races. They are in 3:29 races, where it really seems Jakob is out of gas at the end (poor tactics/energy conservation in Eugene, sickness in Budapest).
In races that test more of speed/finishing/tactical abilities e.g. prelims Jakob actually handles these quite well. Sure some of this is that he is very calm tactically, but also a lot of this is he is aerobically so good that when others are feeling it in a 3:34-3:38 race he is able to get to his 800m speed with ease and sustain it. So there is maybe an extreme case (Rio 1500m final) where Jakob's finishing speed could pose an issue, but it's unclear if in a typical moderate speed race (3:33-3:38) he'd have much trouble at all. This is what separates Jakob somewhat from guys who face this "lacking speed" charge like Katir (pre-ban), McSweyn, Mechaal, or Tefera. There are many more guys in this group. Those guys all have notorious struggles in preliminary heats and also in slower DL/championships races when they occur. If they do a long charge from home they might not win, but they do better. If they let it come down to the last 250m, it's a problem. Jakob doesn't seem to be prone to these issues, but rather the issue of taking a pace early and having to burn off every single competitor.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Jakob ran an impressive 25.90 indoors 4 month after turning 13. At he same time he ran 2:03.27 indoors in the 800m. Do you know enough about youth athletics (friidrett) to acknowledge that these times are excellent for a non sprinter who mainly is doing long distance training?
From that time Jakob improved with 16.77 sec in the 800m until his 1:46.44 at age 19. He must obviously also have improved his 200m time a great deal in the same time.
It is also according to the main topic of this thread THAT JAKOB CAN´T IMPROVE HIS 1500M WITHOUT IMPROVING HIS SPEED AND EVEN LESS HIS 800M SPEED. So IF he HAS improved his 800m time significantly he must as a logical consequence also have improved his topspeed/ 200m time significantly. I am not estimating that he has improved proportionally in the 200m (that would result in a time of 21.71 (25.90-4.19)) but I think it is reasonable to estimate that he has improved with about 3.30 seconds from 13 to 19.
It should also be obvious that a youngster who runs a fast 200m at age 13 and who trains systematically through puberty and physical growth until age 19 should improve with at least about 3.5 seconds.
1:46.44 in 2020 isn´t according to his real potential at the time. As argued before we 800m runners almost never peak in the first race of the season. Nothing sharpens better than racing. So if he had run some more 800meters coming into the high season and finishing in a 800m in Monaco or another fast track in good weather conditions and with suitable competition he could possibly have run 1 sec faster. Nothing sharpens better than racing.
This post is already long so I will address your points about the 200m, 400m, 800m relation in my next post.
I forgot to answer one of your questions in your last post -well, no; I don’t know much about athletics / friidrett in general. (It’s a complicated field). But when I was a teenager myself (of course an older one than Jakob) I ran double digits of seconds faster than his 2.03 in the 800m, despite being a long distance guy. So I know from experience that Jakob’s teenager 800m results were good!
Come on Curious dude! Why are you so secretive? What did you run in the 800m as a teen and at what age?
Have you ever been competing seriouslyas a veteran runner?
I ran a number of Nordic veteran champs, including 2 in Norway, Brumundal in 2005 and Frederiksstad in 2011 (I think). One of my foremost Nordic competitors was Norwegian Harald Nygård who was a 800m-5000m guy and also ran the 3000sc where I think became world champion one year. Have you heard about Harald?
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
* No one put a gun to J Ryun's head, 1968 Olympic. No one made Ryun race higher elevation men, 1500m. Wasn't there a thing called natural science, 1968? You do know J Ryun was almost the exact same size as U.S. 800m man, Duane Solomon. Ryun gambled. He thought he was so superior a 1500m runner, his size and high elevation combination would not prohibit a 1500m win. Ryun had to know what I know: If Ryun would have raced 800m, he would have raced for bronze. No way was he going to earn gold or silver, 800m, 1968 so he gambled and raced 1500m.
* Keino, 1972 Olympic. K Keino was 32 years old, 1972 Olympic. Mike Boit and K Keino did not work together as teammates. K Keino had no help with early pace. P Vasala, 25 or 26 year old 1:44.xx 800m man out-kicked K Keino, 32 year old 1:46.xx 800m man over final 100m, so what.
Thirty-two year old 1500m runners rarely get to 1500m final. Since 1960 Olympic, list the number of 32 year old men to even make it 1500m final, Olympics.
Obsessive and irrelevant detail. Nothing to do with the thread.
You have watched him race? That's impressive. Once? Twice?
The great 1500m runners since Elliott include Vasala but not Keino? Aouita? Cacho? Ngeny? Kiprop?
I don't think you are an objectiveobserver...
Keino fluked at high altitude. Never beat Ryun previously. Was beaten at sea level by Vasala. The others you list were just a bunch of dopers. You aren't an observer - just another fan.
Keino's 1500m performance in Mexico was of WR quality. He has not fluked anything but fully deserves this win almost three seconds ahead of the greatest 1500m runner in history at date. Vasala in the 1500m undoubtedly is not in the class of Keino. You don't include Ngeny in your list of greatest 1500m runners since Elliott because of doping but you include El G? So you think El G was clean and Ngeny not? But you have written something different in this forum several times.
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