Early ny state xc predictions?

Auburn wins. They still have a large 4-5 gap. No Czyz

Auburn's underclassmen are running great. They've essentially gotten nothing from their Seniors. One good race from Howard; Brady and Czyz have been no-shows to-date.

What do these top programs do for training? My son goes to a fairly large public school in NY and their team is not anywhere close to these top teams. How do you average 13:27? I think our top 5 were between 14:30 and 15:30. Now, this year is a down year for us and we had 1 senior. Still though, even if they all improve a min over the next year it’s not close. Last year in one of the letter races we had 2 in the top 5 but those 2 kids were very very gifted.

My son’s team probably averages about 25-35 miles per week (most kids don’t run over the summer). I assume these top programs hammer out 50-70 a week? Is that what it takes? How do these teams do that? At my sons school the coaches need everyone to run together and they have to be done by like 5. Practice doesn’t get going until after 4:00 once announcements, warmup and stretching is done. Just don’t understand.

You know the answer. Yes, you need to average more than 25-35 miles per week and run in the summer.

With an hour of running you can still get in more than 50 miles per week if you run on the weekends.

St. Anthony’s beat both them and Ithaca at Manhattan without MacPherson

The teams gotta be running year around as well to be competitive. Can’t go into cross season not having run much since last fall. If it’s a large school they should have an indoor and outdoor track program. Good way to keep building fitness and speed outside of xc season.

If you trust the speed ratings both Ithaca and Auburn have performed much better at every other meet. Even if you don't trust the speed ratings it's evident that both teams suffered; 13:27 avg from Ithaca and 13:22 avg from Auburn. Really not very good considering what they've shown earlier in the season.

Based on speed ratings, seems like Fairport didn’t perform at Manhattan as well as McQuaid. Last year they were getting worse as the season went on too

Ummm... Fairport didn't run at Manhattan.

I meant Burnt Hills invitational, not Manhattan

Baldwinsville boys thoughts?

They have a solid top 4, but their 5th is ways back

Ranking by average SR alone is silly.

Bethlehem will beat Saratoga in any field larger than a dual meet, due to their advantage at the 4 and 5.

Whoever makes these rankings needs to fix the list of runners. He hasn’t updated it since week 1 and it’s extremely inaccurate. And some of them are flat out wrong. Commacks listed runners are actually Ward Melvilles.

Fairport, Auburn, and Ithaca have had much better races than they did this weekend, neither MW or St. A have performed near as well as the top 3 have earlier in the season.

on the topic of Fairport…

Predictions for the Monroe County champs this weekend.

team

1. Fairport

2. Churchville Chili

3. Spencerport

4. Rush Henrietta

5. Pittsford Sutherland

6. Webster Thomas

7. Pittsford Mendon

8. Brockport

9. Irondequoit

10. Brighton

11. Honeoye Falls Lima

Individual

1. Jake Passalugo Fairport

2. William Tempest Pittsford Sutherland

3. Nathaniel Fisher Brockporr

4. Ryan Giglia Jr Churchville Chili

5. Nathan Sikorski Churchville Chili

6. Colin Lesher Fairport

7. Jerry Lewis Webster Thomas

8. Toby Dickerson Spencerport

9. Daniel Granville Greece Arcadia

10. Henry Hill Fairport

11. Owen Willard Fairport

12. Rahlin Finch Churchville Chili

13. Austin Bubel Fairport

14. Luke Simon Irondequoit

15. Christian Wescott Rush Henrietta

16. Tyler Fischer Fairport

17. Devan Renjen Penfield

18. Bayley Herman Rush Henrietta

19. Connor Roeser Fairport

20. Brandon Yanguas Irondequoit

21. Kyle Lovenguth Spencerport

22. Jacob Granville Greece Arcadia

23. Ryan Mehan Pittsford Mendon

24. Julian Chumacero Victor

25. Ethan Shea Pittsford Mendon

26. Patrick Ward Churchville Chili

27. Cody Khuns Churchville Chili

28. Adam Holmes Brighton

29. Zachary Terrano Rush Henrietta

30. Ryan Bremer Canadaguia

31. Bailey Bateman Brighton

32. Alexandre Leduc Etile Pittsford Mendon

this is a very competitive section that I feel doesn't get enough credit.

thoughts on these predictions?

Meylan had them ranked below FM in his pre-season projection. Think he kinda mailed that one in.