Texas 6A Cross Country Predictions?

I think you are right, all the teams except Kevin had their PR’s first race of the year at FEAST Patriot, none of the team came within 15-30 seconds of those same times, so suspect.

I predict San Juanita Leal will be top 3 in State. Will break 17 minutes with the Humphries girls.

I was bored excited for tomorrow, so I went through all the potential podium teams beyond Southlake. I looked at each runners times this year and tried to normalize it favoring end of season performances vs. early and trying to handicap fast courses. I then took the normalized times and plugged them into the 2021 State Results to hopefully achieve a close points distribution. The bottom line it is close! Coppell might not have 2nd locked up and many teams fighting for 3rd. Also several teams might not be faster 1-5, but have a closer 6-7. Woodlands, Vandegrift, El Paso, and Coppell all get pretty iffy 5+, while Prosper is strong all the way through 7.

1. Southlake

2. Coppell - 99

3. Prosper - 109

4. Austin Vandegrift - 116

5. El Paso Franklin - 127

6. The Woodlands - 165

7. Round Rock - 191

Yet another set of boys regional rankings.

yet another time Coppell not in the top 5.

dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com

DyeStat XC RANKINGS - News - High School Regional Rankings Boys XC 2022 - 11/3

Boys Regional Rankings - 11/3/2022By Doug Binder, DyeStat EditorTwenty-one state meets this weekend will put nearly half the country into play for championship stakes from Washington and Oregon in the Northwest to Florida in...

Link:dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gpro...

Grapevine third??????

NFHS Live is showing delay and radar shows a big rain storm over Round Rock right now, no lightning. Appears delayed, anyone there on site?

No live video coverage, but RunFAR is showing the 4A Girls 3200 has started! Wow, true Cross Country conditions in the middle of a rain storm. :)

live.runfarusa.com

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Link:live.runfarusa.com/meets/19112/xc-scor...

Sorry, 4A girls running full 5k. The 1st mile split is way short and 2nd one way long. Maybe appears the 2M split is actually the 1 mile and the 3rd split is 2M.

NFHS Live is back working.

Urgh, live coverage is only at start and finish, nothing from the lead cart. :/ Not worth the subscription.

To top that off RunFar live times are off, at least the places should be right, which is all that matters XC.

Flower Mound ahead of Southlake by 2 points after 1 mile.

Flower Mound stepped up at State, while Southlake just held its place. Walsh was able to tough it out to be the 5th scorer for Southlake, but if running like early in the year it would have been about dead even. Flower Mound got great runs from its #4 and 5, but didn't have anything else to work with as #6 and 7 were way back compared to Southlake's #6 and 7.

Congrats Flower Mound and they return everyone next year!

1. Flower Mound - 42

2. Southlake - 51

3. Humble Kingwood - 116

Boys Southlake well in control as expected after a mile.

Surprises Coppell in 8th.

WatchOit called it right with Woodlands looking really strong in 2nd.

Big moves Mile 2!

Southlake still in control. Vandegrift took over 2nd from Woodlands and Coppell has made a move all the way to 4th in 1 mile.

Live Results not accurate yet, they are missing the top 3+ finishers.

Wow, great boys race. Southlake didn't run away it quite as expected. Coppell started slow, but finished strong. Austin Vandegrift great showing in 2nd only 19 back from Southlake!

Unofficial...

1. Southlake - 62

2. Austin Vandegrift - 81

3. Coppell - 126

Wow, called the podium correct both boys and girls!

Results up!
Things I noticed.
Southlake Carroll - lead by a freshman. Future of the program! They keep 4 guys and some more depth after that.
Southlake Carroll almost got beat by Vandegrift. Solid 1-5 for Vandegrift! If at NXR they perform the way they did at state, they could go to nxn. Vandegrift doesn’t have much behind their 5th though.

Sounds like Carroll could use healthy David Fisher.

Coppell made podium for the first time! Or was it the first time? When was the last time they made it?

If Atascocita had a 5th, they would have been 1 pt away from the podium, or better.

When was the last time the Woodlands did not podium?
1-6 are seniors too

Vandegrift keeps 3 scorers, and also has some 8th and 9th graders coming up. Also a really fast junior in Schick who hasn’t raced much this season. Future is bright for them! Their scorers always seem to be in different grades but that helps, because they always keep most of their scorers