Win the Senate wrote:
Mueller investigaton wrote:
Decent chance the Dems win the house. Senate less likely but very possible. Either way House may vote to impeach but Senate won’t convict.
You do not have this quite right. Dems will most likely win majorities in the House and the Senate--barring more Russia meddling in the November elections to help Trump out.
What your seem to be quoting is news popular with Fox and Brietbart. What those two Trumpian sources means is that Senate is unlikely to have 67 Democrats; which is pretty much correct. But more than 50 Democrat Senators are very likely.
For impeachment, the House requires greater than 50% of those "present and voting" to impeach . "Present and voting" is the requirement with the quorum being meet. "Chosen and sworn" membership has no bearing on voting by the House.
For impeachment, the Senate requires 67 votes, a two-thirds super majority, to impeach of their "chosen and sworn" membership.
* Notes, quorums and vacancies:
- A quorum is a simple majority (greater than 50%) of those choosing to, and allowed to, vote.
- Vacant seats have no bearing so long as the quorum is meet.
- A quorum for the House is at least 1/2 of the membership, which can be less than the 435 available House seats if seats are empty.
- The House currently has 6 vacancies, so 429 members. A quorum would be 215 members.
- Vacant House seats are filled by election, so they take time to fill. Vacant Senate seats are quickly filled by appointments by governors, so 100 Senate members are likely to be eligible to vote for impeachment at the time of a vote.
Democrats are a considerable underdog to take control of the senate. It is actually less likely that Democrats take the House than Republicans continue to control the senate. The betting odds on Paddypower are Republicans 2/5 or -250 to retain the senate, while Democrats are 4/6 or -150 favorite to retake the House:
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/usa-congressional-electionsIt is all about numbers and terrain. These senate seats were won in the Obama re-election of 2012. Many are in red states that Democrats are defending. Republicans aren't defending much of anything in unfriendly territory, and they really aren't defending much of anything period. Democrats are on defense in the senate. They could actually lose seats, if all the narrow results broke away from them.
Controlling 67 seats is impossible. There is greater likelihood that the world record in the mile run is lower than the world record in the 100m next year, than the odds of Democrats owning 67 seats. That may be hyperbole but barely. Zero chance of either.
House control will come down to independents and how they view Trump. They pushed him over the electoral line in 2016 but that block has shifted against him, although not as lopsided against him as November 2017. Make no mistake, the euphoria regarding a massive blue wave began in late 2017 but Trump's approval rating has slowly upticked since then, and that impacts the bottom line. Many Democrats are overconfident right now, expecting 30+ seats. Meanwhile the GOP and surrogates are going to dump tens of millions into those races. I would be thrilled with Democrats barely getting over the magic number. The problem is Democrats due to gerrymandering basically need a 7-8 point generic House edge to yank those 23 or 24 seats. Tall order.