See my next post.
Here is the video from early 2014 when Jakob ran an indoor 200m at age 13 years and 4 month (not 3 month as wrongly stated above) old:
He ran 25:90 beating an obviously faster and more powerful competitor by running evenly with a better finish.
Is 25:90 fast? It is remarkable fast for a runner who is primarily doing aerobic training and who obviously isn´t a natural born sprinter. Despite this he still has more natural speed than the real sprinters mentioned in my previous post, including my young club mate who ran low 26 at age 13 and high 23 at the age of 15 in the 200m.
I will estimate that Jakob could have run at least 25.5 in an outdoor 200m under good condition in the summer 2014 (where he was still only 13), 24 sec in the 200m in the
summer 2015 at age 14 and 23 sec in the summer 2016 at age 15. He never – to my
knowledge – ran 200m in competition again but he ran a number of 800m races which races indicates that his speed progressed swiftly:
Here is an 800m at the age of 13 and 3 month:
2:03.21 is a VERY fast time for a guy who is only 13 and who mainly is doing long distance
training.
But how did he progress from here? Quite well: Just over a year later he ran 1:56.69
an improvement of 6.5 sec.
And 8 month later he ran a new outdoor Age WR
in 1:52.60. An improvement of further 4 sec.
So Armstrong, if you claim that the 800m performance is dependent on natural speed and that Jakob doesn´t possess this speed, how was he able to run an age WR in his teens. Did he lose his natural speed somewhere along the road?
Not in the next 5 years where he progressed to low 1:51 at 15, 1:49.40 at 16 and 1:46.44 at 19.
Since then he hasn´t run a serious 800m race but if he had just been following his curb he would have been at 1:44 last season if he had raced in top shape (the shape he had at his Brüssel 2000m WR race). It would also help if he ran more than one 800 race in the season so his body could adjust to the faster pace, especially in the beginning of the race.
Back to his 200m potential:
As mentioned above he ran an 800m in 2:03.69 at age 13. That makes high 30 per 200m. His 200m PB at the same time was 25.90 so the difference was about 5 sec.
Our hero Peter Snell ran according to you low 22 in the 200m and we know he could run 1:44.30 in the 800m (= just over 26 per 200m) so there was a 4 sec difference in his case which is natural because he is running a much faster time.
When Jakob was running just over and under 1:52 at age 14 and age 15 his pace per 200m was just over and under 28 sec which by deducting 4.5 sec indicates a 200m just under 24 at age 14 and under 23.5 at age 15.
Jakob´s 800m PB at age 19 = 1:46.44 gives a 200m pace at 26.61. If we cautiously subtract 4 sec we get a 200m time at 22.61 at age 19. Since he clearly has improved his speed since
then I will estimate that his 200m potential last year was low 22 similar to Snell´s.
I know you will strongly disagree BUT do have any valid arguments or just some “handwavering” ones?
I am first coming back to this thread now. I see you have responded. I will come back to that later.